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2024 US Election Megathread 🇺🇸🏛️

khalyan

By khalyan
in Civics

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Lee!!
Message added by Lee!!,

It was decided based on feedback from the spring 2023 town hall to transition this thread back to being election specific. With the Civics section being able to house specific threads on many issues, we think having a generalized politics thread is not completely necessarily anymore. 
 

With that said, please continue to be respectful and remember that you do not always need to respond to everyone. 

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Lil Mistee Collaborator

Lil Mistee

Posted
Posted

I don't see her winning Michigan and not pa. I could see her losing wi but that's also really weird cuz of electorate history. 
 

 

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Ashley Banks Contributor

Ashley Banks

Posted
Posted
Just now, Jay07 said:

Another question. Is there a viable path without PA? Don't know the intricacies of the electoral collage so I'm genuinely asking here.

Yes but it's dicey. She'd have to win both Wisconsin and Michigan, and then either Georgia or North Carolina.

 

If she loses WI and PA, she'd have to win at least two of the sunbelt states (AZ, GA, and NC). If she loses WI, MI, and PA, then she'd need all three sunbelt states. I think that's unlikely though.

 

This is all assuming she wins NV, which I think is a safe bet.

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Sannie Grand Master

Sannie

Posted
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Imagine the mindfuck if Trump gets an historic amount of the non-white vote but Harris still wins because she pulls out the white vote. :jonny: 

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shelven Veteran

shelven

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Sannie said:

Without PA, she would have to win AZ, NV, and then either GA or NC.

She actually only needs one of AZ or NV if she also wins one of GA or NC. MI + WI + NC + NV = 273 electoral votes.

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Lil Mistee Collaborator

Lil Mistee

Posted
Posted
Just now, Sannie said:

Imagine the mindfuck if Trump gets an historic amount of the non-white vote but Harris still wins because she pulls out the white vote. :jonny: 

White queen 

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Sannie Grand Master

Sannie

Posted
Posted
Just now, shelven said:

She actually only needs one of AZ or NV if she also wins one of GA or NC. MI + WI + NC + NV = 273 electoral votes.

Leave me alone. I am not good with math! :deadbanana4:

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GhostBox Grand Master

GhostBox

Posted
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Those polls are actually pretty good tbh 👏🏼

 

those PA numbers are trending in the right direction. Was Trump +2 in their last PA poll. 

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clee95 Collaborator

clee95

Posted
Posted

Can she squeak a win in Arizona like biden did, or is it harder now? What's the vibe?

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Lil Mistee Collaborator

Lil Mistee

Posted
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Those polls combined with the other polls are very good tbh. In their own they look bad but again, combined it's painting a clear picture. Wisconsin will be tight like last election but I think she'll win it. 
 

have we had any Arizona polling recently? I feel like it's gonna go to trump this election. But Harris will get NV

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GhostBox Grand Master

GhostBox

Posted
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1 minute ago, clee95 said:

Can she squeak a win in Arizona like biden did, or is it harder now? What's the vibe?

Its possible. I see her getting NC and NV before AZ and GA 🤷

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Blade Veteran

Blade

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, clee95 said:

Can she squeak a win in Arizona like biden did, or is it harder now? What's the vibe?

It's giving tossup just like 2020. Ruben Gallego polling well and will probably win though he's running against Kari Lake who is psychotic and AZ already said NO to. Abortion is also on the ballot.

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shelven Veteran

shelven

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, clee95 said:

Can she squeak a win in Arizona like biden did, or is it harder now? What's the vibe?

1 minute ago, Lil Mistee said:

have we had any Arizona polling recently? I feel like it's gonna go to trump this election. But Harris will get NV

The polling average is basically a dead heat there. So she can definitely win it, but it'll be tough because even a very tiny polling error in Trump's favour would be enough for him to win it. On the other hand, the Dems haven't lost a race for a national position there since 2016, so there's reasons to be optimistic about the state given its leftward swing over the last few election cycles.

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Blade Veteran

Blade

Posted
Posted


so post debate PA we have

Suffolk: Harris +3 49-46

Marist: TIE 49-49

F&M: Harris +3 49-46

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GhostBox Grand Master

GhostBox

Posted
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Let's just say Harris wins NV.  If she can win NC as well she could lose 1 of the big 3 (WI,PA, or MI). Say she loses 1 of those, as long as she wins NC (and NV) she can still win. 

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GhostBox Grand Master

GhostBox

Posted
Posted
Just now, Blade said:


so post debate PA we have

Suffolk: Harris +3 49-46

Marist: TIE 49-49

F&M: Harris +3 49-46

Another great poll for Harris 👏🏼👏🏼

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VOSS Mentor

VOSS

Posted
Posted

And she has said pretty much the same thing smh…

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shelven Veteran

shelven

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Blade said:


so post debate PA we have

Suffolk: Harris +3 49-46

Marist: TIE 49-49

F&M: Harris +3 49-46

Worth noting that F&M's final 2022 Senate poll actually slightly underestimated the Dems' margin (their LV poll had Fetterman +4 and he won by +5). Their final 2020 presidential poll was off by quite a bit (it was Biden +6), but interestingly they nailed Biden's share (50%). So Harris being at 49% here is a good sign since she'd be hard to beat with a 49% given that Stein and Oliver will both be on the ballot as well.

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Mordecai Mentor

Mordecai

Posted
Posted

This thread stresses me out lol. Seeing all the positive numbers, then some new polls come and its back to square one worrying over what is essentially splitting hairs. It's crazy how Kamala will receive millions of more votes than Trump and yet thanks to your guys' election system it will come down to the wire

 

Also, the number of 'who are you voting for' videos I've watched on YouTube where people say they won't be voting for Kamala just because she's a woman is... gross

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Sannie Grand Master

Sannie

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Blade said:


so post debate PA we have

Suffolk: Harris +3 49-46

Marist: TIE 49-49

F&M: Harris +3 49-46

So it's confirmed, Marist is an outlier and Kamala is winning PA. :party:

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Sannie Grand Master

Sannie

Posted
Posted

Oh, that's a good point about undecideds. This seemingly implies PA undecideds are swinging more towards Harris.

 

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XDNA Proficient

XDNA

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, clee95 said:

Can she squeak a win in Arizona like biden did, or is it harder now? What's the vibe?

She doesn't appear to be campaigning there as much as other states. Maybe they think Kelly and the state races will help her win the state? 

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Blade Veteran

Blade

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, XDNA said:

She doesn't appear to be campaigning there as much as other states. Maybe they think Kelly and the state races will help her win the state? 

Gallego is running not Kelly. 

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Save-Me-Oprah Grand Master

Save-Me-Oprah

Posted
Posted

Kamala knew exactly what she was doing mentioning McCain at the debate. To Arizonans, saying "John McCain" basically equivalent to Lois Griffin saying "9/11"

 

 

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Relampago. Grand Master

Relampago.

Posted
Posted

Oh wow

 

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Harriser Veteran

Harriser

Posted
Posted

I feel for Kamala to win Arizona she will need to have an excellent night overall, and she will have won most of the other swing states. It's like a prize for doing well.

A situation where Arizona comes to rescue her from a bad night in the rust belt just seems wildly unlikely given it is a border state with some of her consistently weakest polling and a much lower black population. I can see it more for Georgia and NC

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