news 2024 US Election Megathread 🇺🇸🏛️

[Rotunda]

 

[Lil Mistee]

1 minute ago, ClashAndBurn said:

The idea of moving her left after she's elected following her running the most right-wing Democrat campaign in decades is just as much of a delusional fantasy as it was when people said the same about Biden. It isn't going to work, and deluding people and giving them false hopes that such is possible sets unrealistic expectations.

 

She's ultimately going to be governing from the right of where she's campaigning, if anything. Nothing else is possible with the inevitable Republican Senate that we are about to get.

Biden has done way more progressive work than I had ever thought he would! I thought half his plans were bs and I genuinely didn't think he'd pass as much student debt relief as he has.
 

Harris isn't any more right wing than Obama was please, picking Tim Walz was so right wing of her! 
 

you're correct in the senate tho lol 

[Relampago.]

Blaska, Blorida and Blexas truthers are sane but people concerned about Arab-American turnout in the upper midwest are heinous and doomers.

 

Mmm.

 

[Lil Mistee]

1 minute ago, Rotunda said:

 

Yas mawma slay queen hunty 

[tiejc]

2 minutes ago, Rotunda said:

 

The Commonwealth of Bluesylvania

[Lil Mistee]

4 minutes ago, Relampago. said:

Also, quick note on Palestine:

 

Even if Palestine ends up not mattering this election, we already have seen data that Kamala being harder on Israel would help her, not harm her.

 

So anyone saying "well US is just conservative!" well, maybe they are, but conservatism isn't a one-size-fits-all, and clearly people either don't care if Kamala wants to withhold support for Israel or they do and her doing so would increase turnout and enthusiasm for her campaign. No real reason to keep supporting a genocide as far as running a winning campaign is concerned. 

I want to make it clear I agree she should say she wants an arms embargo when in office. But I also I want to make it clear I STILL think it is a bad idea to harp on the only semi progressive candidate when our opponent is who he is. 
 

You either support the potential for change or throw it out the door and get the disaster. That's just me tho, I don't believe in third party voting (anymore) and I don't believe in not voting for the potential. 

[Rotunda]

8 minutes ago, Lil Mistee said:

Idk anything about NC why is it seemingly way closer this election?  

Trump only won NC by a little over a point last time.

 

Abortion, Trump fatigue, and a horrific NC GOP candidate can be enough to shift the environment a bit.

[GhostBox]

5 minutes ago, Rotunda said:

 

God I hope this is true come November 🥹🥹

[Lil Mistee]

Just now, Rotunda said:

Trump only won NC by a little over a point last time.

 

Abortion, Trump fatigue, and a horrific NC GOP candidate can be enough to shift the environment a bit.

Who is the gop candidate for them? Sorry I'm at work… barely working hehe. 

[Blade]

Just now, Lil Mistee said:

Who is the gop candidate for them? Sorry I'm at work… barely working hehe. 

Mark Robinson

[FameFatale]

 

[Rotunda]

The funniest thing about the North Carolina race will be the prospect of a Harris-Robinson split ticket voter, though in retrospect that'd just be the "I'm rooting for everybody black" voter.

[on the line]

5 minutes ago, Vermillion said:

Stepped away for an errand, which was probably for the best as the clarification from some posters on my end and my history responded better than I could. 

 

Not sure where to start, but polling clearly is not an exact science. Even of just the battleground states. 

 

There's about 20 things I could say right now as a follow-up to the discussion that's been had the last two pages about our original conversation but all I'm going to say is as long as I'm seeing things this close right up until the end within or just above the margin of error in the Upper Midwest, the Arab-American drop-off is a huge risk. 

 

Palestine will not decide an election that is based on an Electoral College. That is correct. None of us including pollsters can accurately track who of the tens of millions that never vote will decide to turn out. Nor what changes that paradigm from inflation to abortion.

 

But, assuming that status quo doesn't change on those that have not voted in the past, it's a problem. 

 

Michigan aside, if we're going by Pennsylvania determining this election and she loses that state which determines the election, I'm not looking forward to the Shapiro punditry losing their mind, which also doesn't factor in his brutal oppo laundry list that circulated for weeks and whether that would have hypothetically hurt both of them. Kamala's PA fracking 180 was clearly following in Fetterman's footsteps.

 

I'm not trying to push an agenda - I've been on the record with @Communion from two years on not proselytizing in either direction, given "genocide" is "one-hell of a one issue", allowing them to be exactly that mind of voter I was once wary of My question to keep conversation going has been consistently what she's doing to make up for Arab-American drop-off. 

 

I no longer believe a two state solution is possible but that opinion is irrelevant to the original question I posed to get discussion going, that's all. I don't have the energy to hold grudges unless someone's questioning my motives without context. Even then, it won't last long.

 

@Lil Mistee is right, they're visiting. I mean, ok? They always should. That a campaign avoids Hillary's hubris on a number of fronts is a bare minimum requirement. Now whether the much-hyped 50-state strategy en vogue three years ago is worth the money is a separate conversation for a different time.

 

I don't buy the talking point that abortion anger will make up for Kamala for Gaza anger not just in the Upper Midwest, but nationally. Cancel each out so we're back where we started deadlocked in polls? Sure. But not with the advantage.

I do. I hear nearly zero about Palestine outside of this forum. I hear about abortion everywhere. 

 

Plus, we've already seen it in action numerous times. Any time (right? this stat still is correct, no?) abortion has been up for a vote, pro-abortion wins. I very strongly disagree that the two cancel each other out.

[Blade]

 

[ClashAndBurn]

4 minutes ago, Lil Mistee said:

Biden has done way more progressive work than I had ever thought he would! I thought half his plans were bs and I genuinely didn't think he'd pass as much student debt relief as he has.
 

Harris isn't any more right wing than Obama was please, picking Tim Walz was so right wing of her! 
 

you're correct in the senate tho lol 

Obama didn't run on Republican immigration plans, embracing them as bipartisan and necessary. He ran on amnesty for childhood arrivals. We are so far removed from that it's not even funny.

 

What progressive work from Biden? The climate provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act? The ones whose impacts have been  arguably negated by all the drilling he's opened up going beyond what Trump approved of in his whole four years in office?  Biden gave CRUMBS to the progressive left compared to all the concessions he made to the Manchin wing  

[Vermillion]

6 minutes ago, on the line said:

I do. I hear nearly zero about Palestine outside of this forum. I hear about abortion everywhere. 

 

Plus, we've already seen it in action numerous times. Any time (right? this stat still is correct, no?) abortion has been up for a vote, pro-abortion wins. I very strongly disagree that the two cancel each other out.

Fair, and great point of contention for debate here. Thank you.

 

I'm too busy to look up those stats and I don't have a Poli Sci degree but that's what this election will come down to =

 

whether lingering anger over Dobbs cancels out lingering anger from the base on Gaza and moderates on inflation. OR, if it BEATS both of the latter.

[Lil Mistee]

4 minutes ago, Blade said:

Mark Robinson

Pls wasn't that the guy who made the gun video right after the school shooting. 

[shelven]

5 minutes ago, FameFatale said:

 

These polls will start some discourse because of Wisconsin being so much lower than the others, but everyone seems to forget that Wisconsin was also the closest of the 3 Rust Belt states in 2020. Putting the polling averages aside, it's pretty easy to imagine the order of the Rust Belt states from best for Harris to worst for Harris ending up being Pennsylvania (no major issues for Harris there) > Michigan (slightly hurt by her Israel stance but not enough to cost her the state) > Wisconsin (the swingiest and closest state in 2020). 

[Vermillion]

16 minutes ago, Relampago. said:

Blaska, Blorida and Blexas truthers are sane but people concerned about Arab-American turnout in the upper midwest are heinous and doomers.

 

Mmm.

 

Sis don't get me started again 

[Bears01]

Yeah, Wisconsin was deep down always the most worrying. It's the most rural of the big 3, was the closest in 2020, and re elected Ron Johnson while the GOP had a complete wipeout in PA and MI in 2022. 
 

The polling there has been Kamala's best (until now) but they've proven to be hard to poll 

[GhostBox]

 

live now  👏🏼👏🏼

[nadiamendell]

As her husband just survived his second "assassination attempt", Melania takes to Twitter:

 

 

 

 

 

[CamCam]

42 minutes ago, Lil Mistee said:

You're correct but I'd also argue that America as an entity is still moderately conservative and middle of the road at best, so I understand Harris in being a politician first and foremost and not putting forward a super progressive package deal upfront. I think democrats are more wavering and actually listen sometimes. So it's important we elect her, and then drag her to the pits of hell once elected to get something done. Dragging her now is just ruining the chance at getting anything done. 
 

also Hillary barely campaigned in the rust belt if I remember correctly. Harris is running a much better campaign. 

That's the part a lot of people seem to forget this time around. Hilary was my girl in 2016, but I'd be naïve to think that she wasn't pressing her luck on the blue-heavy areas to push her into the White House while not scoping the entire map like Kamala has been doing. That's why while I'm still very much cautious, I'm also much more cautiously optimistic about her reach being stronger & full of more voters in areas like the Rust Belt thanks to her determination...and her efforts are paying off.

Edited yesterday at 04:59 PM by CamCam

[spree]

I bet you 75% of the population can't even locate Palestine on a map, including me.  There is no way it decides this election.  I'm also keeping optimistic.  You see the margins tightening in Texas and Florida, and that's a super good sign for national margins.

[Lil Mistee]

9 minutes ago, ClashAndBurn said:

Obama didn't run on Republican immigration plans, embracing them as bipartisan and necessary. He ran on amnesty for childhood arrivals. We are so far removed from that it's not even funny.

 

What progressive work from Biden? The climate provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act? The ones whose impacts have been  arguably negated by all the drilling he's opened up going beyond what Trump approved of in his whole four years in office?  Biden gave CRUMBS to the progressive left compared to all the concessions he made to the Manchin wing  

Well, he supported public transport with an infrastructure bill, codified gay and same sex marriage, supported free lunch extensions, capped the price of insulin, etc etc

 

We can list things he's done all day long. My point being he did more progressive things that I PERSONALLY ever thought he'd do. 
 

Y'all want some super far left aoc type and y'all ain't gonna get that anytime soon. It's a growing fight! And on that point might I add that Biden sat with Bernie Sanders multiple times for days to set up progressive policies… Sanders has said as much…