news 2024 US Election Megathread 🇺🇸🏛️

[on the line]

Just now, Lil Mistee said:

This tea was too hot for some people I fear 

You're not wrong. It's a very valid point, and one I've wondered often visiting this thread  

[Marianah Adkins]

36 minutes ago, on the line said:

Do you have any currently polling that says this is true? I haven't seen it yet. All the polling that has been posted here has been better and better for Kamala each day.

Trump has a tendency to bring out voters that are not polled nor vote unless for Trump and polling has historically underestimated that. Its the reason why he always has this surge come election day that makes everyone surprise (hopefully his base will be lessed enthusiastic this time around). 

And the states where such surge may tip the balance in his favor are the upper Midwestern states. 

 

Its great that Kamala is doing well pollswise rn but there are still weeks to go and one would hope for her to continue the momentum. But there is nothing wrong with hedging her chances as well especially when the electoral college has become more split with the popular vote

[on the line]

6 minutes ago, Sannie said:

I could give you a list of users in here that deserve your ire and are applicable to the issues you have but I don't want to deal with nonsensical, hypocritical essays today. Long story short, your anger towards @Vermillion is misguided. And take it from someone who is fed up with white leftists who put their ego above all while pretending they care about others. 

I already explained myself in more detail, but I'm not going to apologize for disagreeing with the Jen Shah/LvP of this thread. My disagreement was respectful, and I got several "agreed" likes to it. 

[Lil Mistee]

2 hours ago, on the line said:

I'm sorry, but there is no way you can convince me this election is going to come down to Michigan and Palestine. This is such unwarranted fear mongering. There are going to be plenty of close states, but some of y'all in this forum keep pressing this agenda when current polling isn't reflecting it. Like, at all. 

The pearl clutching by a very small vocal minority of super left people in super left areas is really funny. Like mawma, y'all live in a progressive bubble. This election isn't getting decided because of Palestine pls… 

[ZeroSuitBritney]

My undocumented Hezbollah supporting friends and I have decided that for the next two months we will be traveling to all the swing states and registering to vote multiple times and casting numerous votes for Jill Stein, especially in WI, MI, and PA.

 

[WildAmerican]

this thread is just 

 

n e ways

 

 

[aquababy]

6 minutes ago, Relampago. said:

More Rust Belt polls today..

 

Spoiler

assuming the "leak" isn't bs like other times 

 

[Rotunda]

Solid result for her given how the AARP polls have looked this cycle

[Rotunda]

3 minutes ago, ZeroSuitBritney said:

My undocumented Hezbollah supporting friends and I have decided that for the next two months we will be traveling to all the swing states and registering to vote multiple times and casting numerous votes for Jill Stein, especially in WI, MI, and PA.

 

Don't forget to stop by the prisons for your free trans surgeries while you're there.

 

[ZeroSuitBritney]

Just now, Rotunda said:

Don't forget to stop by the prisons for your free trans surgeries while you're there.

 

Of course. I'm sure we will be starving afterwards, so we will head over to Springfield to get some unique kebab. I hear it's all the rave right now!

 

[Lil Mistee]

51 minutes ago, Marianah Adkins said:

The Midwest is the battleground of this election and yet we have ppl in this forum and on the Internet acting like its blue locked. Hillary Clinton thought so too with much better polling in the area than Kamala afaik and we all know how that ended.

 

Hence @Vermillion's point about Palestine and Michigan was not just merely about pushing an agenda, its a realist view on how the election will play out. The white working class which historically voted Democratic has been trending Republican so Kamala needs all the votes she can get to win those states- including Arab American voters who are turned off by the Pro Israel rhetoric. Counting them out may turn fatal. 

 

I'd suggest that some users here should look at the bigger picture on the ground rather than rely on presumptions. Kamala is not even the problem, its the policies (her weak point) that is dragging her down. 

You're correct but I'd also argue that America as an entity is still moderately conservative and middle of the road at best, so I understand Harris in being a politician first and foremost and not putting forward a super progressive package deal upfront. I think democrats are more wavering and actually listen sometimes. So it's important we elect her, and then drag her to the pits of hell once elected to get something done. Dragging her now is just ruining the chance at getting anything done. 
 

also Hillary barely campaigned in the rust belt if I remember correctly. Harris is running a much better campaign. 

[on the line]

8 minutes ago, Marianah Adkins said:

Trump has a tendency to bring out voters that are not polled nor vote unless for Trump and polling has historically underestimated that. Its the reason why he always has this surge come election day that makes everyone surprise (hopefully his base will be lessed enthusiastic this time around). 

And the states where such surge may tip the balance in his favor are the upper Midwestern states. 

 

Its great that Kamala is doing well pollswise rn but there are still weeks to go and one would hope for her to continue the momentum. But there is nothing wrong with hedging her chances as well especially when the electoral college has become more split with the popular vote

I get what you're saying, but I do feel strongly that this election isn't like 2016 or 2020 and many of those secret Trump voters no longer are in play.

 

It is just feels for me, like what you said is also just feels. We'll see what happens soon though.

[Lil Mistee]

16 minutes ago, Relampago. said:

More Rust Belt polls today..

love these! Since they're all in Harris favor ! 

[Lil Mistee]

1 minute ago, on the line said:

I get what you're saying, but I do feel strongly that this election isn't like 2016 or 2020 and many of those secret Trump voters no longer are in play.

 

It is just feels for me, like what you said is also just feels. We'll see what happens soon though.

I don't think there even are secret trump voters, we've devolved into people openly admitting their hatred. What happened in 2016 when it came to trump voters was, people were tired of politicians. The approval rating of our government institutions kept going down. People thought trump wasn't a politician (lol) and was a new way out of the corporate political system and that he was a good business man for the job (lol again). I know at least 7 people who voted for him in 2016 who have not and will not vote for him again. They realized their mistake and that he is just another shitty politician (and worse). 
 

people don't like him, a lot of people who vote for him now are voting along party lines cuz they have no morals. 
 

 

[Lil Mistee]

Remember, he lost the popular vote twice… by a lot… yes a good portion of America voted for him but girl…

 

 

[FameFatale]

 

[Relampago.]

13 minutes ago, aquababy said:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

assuming the "leak" isn't bs like other times 

 

Wisconsin

 

It makes sense she's the closest there, but +6 in PA seems.. interesting to say the least.

[Lil Mistee]

Idk anything about NC why is it seemingly way closer this election?  

[Blade]

NC is so important because if Trump holds NC and flips GA (the latter looking likely), Kamala's ONLY* paths require PA. 
 

*only if we're looking at the 7 core swing states. That's ignoring something weird happening like TX, OH, FL, AK going blue.

[SlayianaGrenade]

Trump fatigue is very real. If anything the polls are underestimating Democratic support in this upcoming election. Trump has reached his ceiling polling wise. A lot of you have this convoluted narrative of Trump bringing out these "silent Republicans" when all of the polling suggests he is bleeding support while Harris gains. This forum is stuck in a weird leftist bubble not based even remotely in reality.

[Lil Mistee]

Just now, Blade said:

NC is so important because if Trump holds NC and flips GA (the latter looking likely), Kamala's ONLY* paths require PA. 
 

*only if we're looking at the 7 core swing states. That's ignoring something weird happening like TX, OH, FL, AK going blue.

Alaska going blue would be so funny and could actually happen 

[ClashAndBurn]

9 minutes ago, Lil Mistee said:

So it's important we elect her, and then drag her to the pits of hell once elected to get something done

The idea of moving her left after she's elected following her running the most right-wing Democrat campaign in decades is just as much of a delusional fantasy as it was when people said the same about Biden. It isn't going to work, and deluding people and giving them false hopes that such is possible sets unrealistic expectations.

 

She's ultimately going to be governing from the right of where she's campaigning, if anything. Nothing else is possible with the inevitable Republican Senate that we are about to get.

[Relampago.]

Also, quick note on Palestine:

 

Even if Palestine ends up not mattering this election, we already have seen data that Kamala being harder on Israel would help her, not harm her.

 

So anyone saying "well US is just conservative!" well, maybe they are, but conservatism isn't a one-size-fits-all, and clearly people either don't care if Kamala wants to withhold support for Israel or they do and her doing so would increase turnout and enthusiasm for her campaign. No real reason to keep supporting a genocide as far as running a winning campaign is concerned. 

[Vermillion]

Stepped away for an errand, which was probably for the best as the clarification from some posters on my end and my history responded better than I could. 

 

Not sure where to start, but polling clearly is not an exact science. Even of just the battleground states. 

 

There's about 20 things I could say right now as a follow-up to the discussion that's been had the last two pages about our original conversation but all I'm going to say is as long as I'm seeing things this close right up until the end within or just above the margin of error in the Upper Midwest, the Arab-American drop-off is a huge risk. 

 

Palestine will not decide an election that is based on an Electoral College. That is correct. None of us including pollsters can accurately track who of the tens of millions that never vote will decide to turn out. Nor what changes that paradigm from inflation to abortion.

 

But, assuming that status quo doesn't change on those that have not voted in the past, it's a problem. 

 

Michigan aside, if we're going by Pennsylvania determining this election and she loses that state which determines the election, I'm not looking forward to the Shapiro punditry losing their mind, which also doesn't factor in his brutal oppo laundry list that circulated for weeks and whether that would have hypothetically hurt both of them. Kamala's PA fracking 180 was clearly following in Fetterman's footsteps.

 

I'm not trying to push an agenda - I've been on the record with @Communion from two years on not proselytizing in either direction, given "genocide" is "one-hell of a one issue", allowing them to be exactly that kind of voter I was once wary of. My question to keep the conversation going has been consistently what she's doing to make up for Arab-American drop-off. 

 

I no longer believe a two state solution is possible but that opinion is irrelevant to the original question I posed to get discussion going, that's all. I don't have the energy to hold grudges unless someone's questioning my motives without context. Even then, it won't last long.

 

@Lil Mistee is right, they're visiting. I mean, ok? They always should. That a campaign avoids Hillary's hubris on a number of fronts is a bare minimum requirement. Now whether the much-hyped 50-state strategy en vogue three years ago is worth the money is a separate conversation for a different time.

 

I don't buy the talking point that abortion anger will make up for Kamala for Gaza anger not just in the Upper Midwest, but nationally. Cancel each out so we're back where we started deadlocked in polls? Sure. But not with the advantage.

[FameFatale]

I'm sorry but this is so