ClashAndBurn Posted August 15, 2022 Posted August 15, 2022 21 minutes ago, Espresso said: Are Paxton's crimes just so obvious that enough independents feel shame to have Garza's numbers be near the margin-of-error? Is the inability to translate that to Abbott with the troops that died by suicide for Abbott's border chaos, hundreds of juveniles that are committing suicide for a state prison system in anarchy, dozens that have died by freezing or scorching temperatures for his failed state energy grid, and thousands have been wasted in taxpayer dollars for his migrant bus tours to DC and NYC with contractors connected to his campaign all struck down because of Beto's comments on AK-47's? Is that really all it comes down to? Paxton openly saying he wants to defend the anti-gay sodomy law is probably a major factor for the differential. RGV Latinos will save him in the end, I think. Meanwhile, Beto said "hell yeah, we're taking your AR-15s" and 19 dead children in Uvalde doesn't move the needle any more than the El Paso shooting victims did. Uvalde itself will probably vote for Abbott by a wide margin, seeing as it was already a Republican stronghold.
Vermillion Posted August 15, 2022 Posted August 15, 2022 11 minutes ago, ClashAndBurn said: Paxton openly saying he wants to defend the anti-gay sodomy law is probably a major factor for the differential. RGV Latinos will save him in the end, I think. Meanwhile, Beto said "hell yeah, we're taking your AR-15s" and 19 dead children in Uvalde doesn't move the needle any more than the El Paso shooting victims did. Uvalde itself will probably vote for Abbott by a wide margin, seeing as it was already a Republican stronghold. AR-15s, my mistake on the quote. I'm surprised you think this comes down to his comments on the sodomy law - why would that not translate to Abbott? Because the independents in Texas care more about their guns than the sodomy law?
ClashAndBurn Posted August 15, 2022 Posted August 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Espresso said: AR-15s, my mistake on the quote. I'm surprised you think this comes down to his comments on the sodomy law - why would that not translate to Abbott? Because the independents in Texas care more about their guns than the sodomy law? Well, it's not just the anti-sodomy law, but that Paxton is so brazen about what he wants to overturn, and given the Republican Party's willingness to pursue not only prosecuting gays, but also contraception, interracial marriage, and other things, it's the brazenness of wanting the government to overstep take things away that scares off libertarian-leaning independents. By that same token, Beto saying he wants to take assault weapons away also scares off those same libertarian-leaning independents. So... yeah, in a way I think it's related in a roundabout way.
Vermillion Posted August 15, 2022 Posted August 15, 2022 The even remote possibility the passports weren't just swept up in the raid but that the former President's a flight risk
dabunique Posted August 15, 2022 Posted August 15, 2022 2 hours ago, Espresso said: Ma'am!!!!! worst is people r so naïve to believe this and won't even research it
Vermillion Posted August 15, 2022 Posted August 15, 2022 1 hour ago, dabunique said: Ma'am!!!!! worst is people r so naïve to believe this and won't even research it Yeah. Also, side-bar, I don't believe Jim Jordan.
dabunique Posted August 15, 2022 Posted August 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Espresso said: Yeah. Also, side-bar, I don't believe Jim Jordan. who does LOL
dabunique Posted August 15, 2022 Posted August 15, 2022 So who should i vote for Governor of Florida Nikki or Charlie?
Vermillion Posted August 15, 2022 Posted August 15, 2022 15 minutes ago, dabunique said: So who should i vote for Governor of Florida Nikki or Charlie? Saying "either because neither will win" is not productive but my gut reaction. Vote for Nikki. Charlie's got way too baggage so the oppo against him is greater. RCP averages have Crist with a better shot I think but the apparent "lefty" won the last primary before his career went up in smoke so who knows. Florida I don't think personally is ever going purple again mostly due to the Cubanos in Miami and other transplants that aren't just snowbirds or retirees to The Villages that are specifically moving to the state for political reasons that ironically support minimum wage increases but are also socially conservative. Economic progressivism and social conservatism last I checked was how some pundits were defining populism in the States but I lose track.
dabunique Posted August 15, 2022 Posted August 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, Espresso said: Saying "either because neither will win" is not productive but my gut reaction. Vote for Nikki. Charlie's got way too baggage so the oppo against him is greater. RCP averages have Crist with a better shot I think but the apparent "lefty" won the last primary before his career went up in smoke so who knows. Florida I don't think personally is ever going purple again mostly due to the Cubanos in Miami and other transplants that aren't just snowbirds or retirees to The Villages that are specifically moving to the state for political reasons that ironically support minimum wage increases but are also socially conservative. Economic progressivism and social conservatism last I checked was how some pundits were defining populism in the States but I lose track. u mean all Latinos in Miami we Cubans aren't da only ones here
Vermillion Posted August 15, 2022 Posted August 15, 2022 38 minutes ago, dabunique said: u mean all Latinos in Miami we Cubans aren't da only ones here Of course there's not just Cubans in Miami Are you defining all Latinos in Miami as socially conservative? I mean, I'm not stopping you because I don't know the context of how long you've lived there - I'm just going by relatives that previously lived in Orlando and folks that worked in Florida campaigns, including in Miami, that I'm still in touch with. The polling, studies and focus groups from the last decade indicate that the majority of Cubanos in Miami are conservative and have played a huge role in swinging the state red. A lot of Democrats paint a broad brush in their Latino outreach at their peril, which has been written about extensively in South Florida and South Texas.
dabunique Posted August 15, 2022 Posted August 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Espresso said: Of course there's not just Cubans in Miami Are you defining all Latinos in Miami as socially conservative? I mean, I'm not stopping you because I don't know the context of how long you've lived there - I'm just going by relatives that previously lived in Orlando and folks that worked in Florida campaigns, including in Miami, that I'm still in touch with. The polling, studies and focus groups from the last decade indicate that the majority of Cubanos in Miami are conservative and have played a huge role in swinging the state red. A lot of Democrats paint a broad brush in their Latino outreach at their peril, which has been written about extensively in South Florida and South Texas. Yup. I kno da Cubans but there r also Central Americans and South Americans who r super conservative down here. da rhetoric dat work on us Cubans also works on dem worse to me is how many of my generation (x) and millennials are social conservatives down here.
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