Bears01 Posted September 9 Posted September 9 Is the fact that Trump is spending basically $0 in North Carolina what could possibly be hurting him a bit? Color me skeptical that it's the final result (NC is always a tease) but survey USA and Quinnipac are very, very reliable pollsters. Kamala winning NC would give her a TON of breathing room in the EC 4
Blankspace2010 Posted September 9 Posted September 9 20 minutes ago, Bears01 said: Is the fact that Trump is spending basically $0 in North Carolina what could possibly be hurting him a bit? Color me skeptical that it's the final result (NC is always a tease) but survey USA and Quinnipac are very, very reliable pollsters. Kamala winning NC would give her a TON of breathing room in the EC Yet Nate Silver has Kamala at 35% chance winning If she's +3 points ahead in NC, Trump is in deep trouble.
Thuggin Posted September 9 Posted September 9 6 minutes ago, Relampago. said: You're 100% right but I highly doubt Harris is going to focus on pro-her/Dem points as opposed to trying to tear Trump down more. She will have to address the Biden admin's failures and the inflation, among other issues, that occurred during the term she was VP. I can't imagine her breaking from Biden, so she will likely point out that Trump will be worse instead. I don't know how else she'll try to address that argument because she can't just say "the economy actually isn't bad!" because people feel it is. She's stuck between a rock and a hard place and attacking Trump is better than the other options I guess, even if it isn't a great option. Hopefully she'll get under his skin enough that he self-destructs. Well yeah, saying "actually everything is fine" when they feel it's not and Trump is promising to make it better would be a terrible strategy too but even if Trump has a meltdown, I don't see why that would help Harris that significantly. Are there really undecideds out there who are going to go "oh wow, I didn't realize how erratic Trump was! I better vote Kamala even if I think I'm going to be paying more at the pump because of her". I also don't buy that "maybe they just need to be reminded how bad Trump is". Yes America's memory is short, but they also ultimately "survived" under Trump so despite January 6th, despite the felony convictions, despite the impeachments, despite his daily Twitter tirades, a lot of them feel like they can survive another Trump term as long as they can still get milk, bread, and eggs on the table (and our whole democracy won't necessarily fall apart but maybe just the boring stuff Republicans always do to disenfranchise people and subvert the will of the people will continue to happen). We have to remember that back in early 2020 Trump was looking tough to beat for any Democratic candidate, and the only reason he ended up narrowly losing was because people felt like he bungled Covid and that was affecting the market. Well now people are over Covid or at least don't think about it every day, and they're desperate to deal with inflation. I don't think Harris has to go against Biden's record and I don't think she should just say "well Republicans have no solution for inflation" either. I think she just has to present her own plan with new ideas not tied to Biden and get enough people to believe that there's a chance she could improve their lives. 3
Blade Posted September 9 Posted September 9 So in addition to these MC polls we got NC +3 Harris (FAU) / NC +3 Harris (Quinnipiac) Georgia +4 Trump (Quinnipiac) Better day for Harris 3
Armani? Posted September 9 Posted September 9 Quinnipiac North Carolina Women - 60% Kamala/ 37% Trump Men 56% Trump/ 38% Kamala White Voters - 56% Trump/41% Kamala (66% of men for Trump, 51% of women for Kamala🤔) White College Educated - 56%Kamala, 40% Trump Non College Educated White Voters - 68% Trump, 30% Kamala Black Voters - 85% Kamala/13% Trump Ages 18 - 34 - 55% Kamala/42% Trump Quinnipiac Georgia Women - 52% Kamala/ 43% Trump Men 56% Trump/ 37% Kamala White Voters - 68% Trump, 28% Kamala (74% of men for Trump, 64% of women for Trump) White College Educated - 55%Kamala, 41% Trump Non College Educated White Voters - 75% Trump, 21% Kamala Black Voters - 82% Kamala/8% Trump Ages 18 - 34 - 59% Kamala/34% Trump The electorate for Georgia is not giving +4 Trump unless the other POC has high margins of error. 68% of White Voters voting Trump would be the same as 2020. And while 82% is slightly low for the Black vote, Trump is only at 8%. That would be 90/10 in a 2 way. 2
Relampago. Posted September 9 Posted September 9 4 minutes ago, Thuggin said: Well yeah, saying "actually everything is fine" when they feel it's not and Trump is promising to make it better would be a terrible strategy too but even if Trump has a meltdown, I don't see why that would help Harris that significantly. Are there really undecideds out there who are going to go "oh wow, I didn't realize how erratic Trump was! I better vote Kamala even if I think I'm going to be paying more at the pump because of her". I also don't buy that "maybe they just need to be reminded how bad Trump is". Yes America's memory is short, but they also ultimately "survived" under Trump so despite January 6th, despite the felony convictions, despite the impeachments, despite his daily Twitter tirades, a lot of them feel like they can survive another Trump term as long as they can still get milk, bread, and eggs on the table (and our whole democracy won't necessarily fall apart but maybe just the boring stuff Republicans always do to disenfranchise people and subvert the will of the people will continue to happen). We have to remember that back in early 2020 Trump was looking tough to beat for any Democratic candidate, and the only reason he ended up narrowly losing was because people felt like he bungled Covid and that was affecting the market. Well now people are over Covid or at least don't think about it every day, and they're desperate to deal with inflation. I don't think Harris has to go against Biden's record and I don't think she should just say "well Republicans have no solution for inflation" either. I think she just has to present her own plan with new ideas not tied to Biden and get enough people to believe that there's a chance she could improve their lives. Oh, for sure. I don't think it's an optimal strategy, just the one I feel they'll go with. Try as she might to present her plans, Trump will inevitably say something about Biden and Harris having to take the fall, and she can't really just ignore that point altogether and go "..anyways here's my plan:…" I mean, she COULD but not answering why she didn't do anything as Biden's VP isn't going to go over well. And we know the VP isn't exactly in charge of everything and only have so much they could do, but Americans don't see it that way. The only way she can combat that point is by explicitly breaking away from Biden and painting herself as a totally different option compared to him. And while that would be the best option, she's not going to do that since she hasn't done it much at all yet and I don't see her starting that now. 1
Relampago. Posted September 9 Posted September 9 The messy GA poll Maybe I'm just not remembering correctly but were the polls this… strange in 2016/2020? I feel like we had some pretty clear and expected polls from each state overall, even though that didn't end up translating to the results. It seems like now everyone's generally telling the same story, it's close in every swing state but then we get such weird results in *how* it's close and *where* it's closest vs not. Wisconsin polling so well for Harris but PA is constantly in deadlock, NC breaking to Harris but GA flipping to Trump, NV bleeding Latino support but AZ somehow staying stable-ish… Obviously it's not that way in every poll and generally Kamala still seems to be improving slowly or at least staying above water, but it's kinda giving no one knows what to say or expect anymore. It's like every poll is telling the same story with a different angle, which I guess is to be expected this time around.
shelven Posted September 9 Posted September 9 5 minutes ago, Relampago. said: The messy GA poll Maybe I'm just not remembering correctly but were the polls this… strange in 2016/2020? I feel like we had some pretty clear and expected polls from each state overall, even though that didn't end up translating to the results. It seems like now everyone's generally telling the same story, it's close in every swing state but then we get such weird results in *how* it's close and *where* it's closest vs not. Wisconsin polling so well for Harris but PA is constantly in deadlock, NC breaking to Harris but GA flipping to Trump, NV bleeding Latino support but AZ somehow staying stable-ish… Obviously it's not that way in every poll and generally Kamala still seems to be improving slowly or at least staying above water, but it's kinda giving no one knows what to say or expect anymore. It's like every poll is telling the same story with a different angle, which I guess is to be expected this time around. This definitely feels way more like a "what are the polls even trying to say" cycle so far Biden dominated the polls throughout 2020 and essentially the only discussion worth having was whether there would be another 2016-esque polling error that benefits Trump (and the gag is that we ended up getting a worse error than 2016, but Biden's lead in the 2020 polls was so big that it didn't end up mattering ). In 2016, Hillary also pretty consistently dominated the polls for most of the cycle. She began to falter in the last few weeks, but everyone was still in such a "Trump is a laughable clown who poses no threat, obviously she's going to curbstomp him" mentality that nobody really noticed the polls start to trend his way. This is the first cycle in the Trump era where the polls keep bouncing back and forth between who seems like they're in the winning position.
Bears01 Posted September 9 Posted September 9 5 minutes ago, Relampago. said: The messy GA poll Maybe I'm just not remembering correctly but were the polls this… strange in 2016/2020? I feel like we had some pretty clear and expected polls from each state overall, even though that didn't end up translating to the results. It seems like now everyone's generally telling the same story, it's close in every swing state but then we get such weird results in *how* it's close and *where* it's closest vs not. Wisconsin polling so well for Harris but PA is constantly in deadlock, NC breaking to Harris but GA flipping to Trump, NV bleeding Latino support but AZ somehow staying stable-ish… Obviously it's not that way in every poll and generally Kamala still seems to be improving slowly or at least staying above water, but it's kinda giving no one knows what to say or expect anymore. It's like every poll is telling the same story with a different angle, which I guess is to be expected this time around. In 2020, the only states where Biden was kinda underestimated were GA (polling and $$ spent) and Nevada (though I could be wrong). The polling in WI (especially) was so disastrously wrong, along with MI. Although MI was the most blue out of all the swing states, it had Biden consistently winning by like 5-8 pts I believe when he didn't even win it by 3
Bamboo Posted September 9 Posted September 9 Boycotting my enthusiasm for the campaign until Kamala ships my merch i ordered the first week of August 1
Bears01 Posted September 9 Posted September 9 2 minutes ago, GhostBox said: Welp more good news for Harris in NC 👏🏼👏🏼 The gubernatorial race will have absolute minimal effect on the outcome at the top of the ticket. You can probably count the number of people on 2 hands who are legit saying "I'm not voting for Trump because of MARK Robinson!" Roy Cooper won his 2020 race comfortably, while Trump won the state over Biden ffs
shelven Posted September 9 Posted September 9 On the debate discussion: I think the decision of how much time to focus on attacking Trump vs. how much to focus on Harris's own policies is a bit tricky. On the one hand, I agree with the sentiment that 99% of Americans know Trump is awful and so it's a waste of time to spend the whole debate telling people he's awful. But on the other hand, 2024 Trump is different than 2016/2020 Trump. They're both immoral, corrupt and racist, but 2024 Trump is a lot more incoherent and unhinged than 2016/2020 Trump was. If you don't watch CNN or MSNBC or don't live on Twitter, you might not be aware of just how much it seems like Trump has genuinely lost his mind recently (and not just in an evil way, but in like a... actually has cognitive issues way). I think if that's what Harris focuses on in the debate (as opposed to "this guy is racist and a criminal and generally sucks"), it's worth dedicating some time to that. But yeah, she definitely shouldn't go overboard and ignore her own policy ideas because then the takeaway of the debate will be that voters went into the debate feeling like they didn't know her well enough and now they're coming out of the debate still not feeling like they know her well enough. I think she should mostly stay focused on her own ideas, with an occasional acknowledgment here and there when Trump says something particularly nonsensical. If she is going to attack Trump for being corrupt/evil/a criminal, she should frame those attacks around the threat he poses to democracy, his election denialism and his continued adoration of January 6, since reminding voters of that does seem to have a legitimate impact on how they view the Republicans (as we saw in the 2022 midterms). 3
Bears01 Posted September 9 Posted September 9 5 minutes ago, shelven said: This definitely feels way more like a "what are the polls even trying to say" cycle so far Biden dominated the polls throughout 2020 and essentially the only discussion worth having was whether there would be another 2016-esque polling error that benefits Trump (and the gag is that we ended up getting a worse error than 2016, but Biden's lead in the 2020 polls was so big that it didn't end up mattering ). In 2016, Hillary also pretty consistently dominated the polls for most of the cycle. She began to falter in the last few weeks, but everyone was still in such a "Trump is a laughable clown who poses no threat, obviously she's going to curbstomp him" mentality that nobody really noticed the polls start to trend his way. This is the first cycle in the Trump era where the polls keep bouncing back and forth between who seems like they're in the winning position. What I'm surprised to learn that's just came to light recently, is that a lot of pollsters didn't even report a (admittedly a lot) of voters who simply said "fu c k you, I'm voting for Trump" and just threw them aside in 2020 like…. 4
shelven Posted September 9 Posted September 9 Just now, Bears01 said: What I'm surprised to learn that's just came to light recently, is that a lot of pollsters didn't even report a (admittedly a lot) of voters who simply said "fu c k you, I'm voting for Trump" and just threw them aside in 2020 like…. Yeah I remember that being posted in here a few weeks ago and it's genuinely insane Like I get that a response like that probably goes against traditional polling rules/guidelines about not counting incomplete responses, but in this context, it was so clear that those respondents were highly enthusiastic Trump voters, so ignoring them entirely feels genuinely irresponsible Fixing that one decision alone should single-handedly prevent at least some of the polling error we saw in 2016 and 2020. 2
Lil Mxnster Posted September 9 Posted September 9 Polls are mostly performative (and paid) and to see political analysts commenting their own fluctuating perceptions as though they had a vision in a magic ball is quite funny. 3
Bears01 Posted September 9 Posted September 9 10 minutes ago, shelven said: Yeah I remember that being posted in here a few weeks ago and it's genuinely insane Like I get that a response like that probably goes against traditional polling rules/guidelines about not counting incomplete responses, but in this context, it was so clear that those respondents were highly enthusiastic Trump voters, so ignoring them entirely feels genuinely irresponsible Fixing that one decision alone should single-handedly prevent at least some of the polling error we saw in 2016 and 2020. Oh yeah, without question I think pollsters have generally nailed how close the race will be this cycle in the core battlegrounds. I can't see Trump or Kamala winning by more than 3 points in any of PA, MI, WI (especially those 3) and honestly not even Nevada or Georgia either. Trump just struggles in Georgia but they have a competent organization (entirely thanks to Kemp) that could put him over the line. AZ in particular I see either Kamala winning by the skin of her teeth, or a complete Trump by 4-5
Tovitov Posted September 9 Posted September 9 Not that Im entirely sure this is going to happen but: It'd be funny if this was a 2012 redux where the state polling was more accurate and the national polling was too R-Friendly as opposed to 2016 and 2020 where it was the opposite.
Blade Posted September 9 Posted September 9 38 minutes ago, Bears01 said: The gubernatorial race will have absolute minimal effect on the outcome at the top of the ticket. You can probably count the number of people on 2 hands who are legit saying "I'm not voting for Trump because of MARK Robinson!" Roy Cooper won his 2020 race comfortably, while Trump won the state over Biden ffs While I agree that the Robinson's loss won't guarantee a Trump loss *and* I am also skeptical of the massive margins Stein is supposed to win with according to polls...it's important to put this into perspective. Cooper won by a raw margin of 248,000 votes and a % margin of 4.5 pts Trump won by a raw margin of 74,000 votes and a % margin of 1.3 pts If the Gov race is even slightly more blue than 2020, that can put Trump in danger of losing. 5
Life Savers Posted September 9 Posted September 9 Trump winning PA but losing anyway because he neglected NC ala Hillary with Wisconsin would be a kii. 1 9
Bears01 Posted September 9 Posted September 9 (edited) 43 minutes ago, Blade said: While I agree that the Robinson's loss won't guarantee a Trump loss *and* I am also skeptical of the massive margins Stein is supposed to win with according to polls...it's important to put this into perspective. Cooper won by a raw margin of 248,000 votes and a % margin of 4.5 pts Trump won by a raw margin of 74,000 votes and a % margin of 1.3 pts If the Gov race is even slightly more blue than 2020, that can put Trump in danger of losing. I get what you're saying, but I just think Robinson in general is such an objectively horrible candidate, that he himself isnt putting Trump at risk of losing the state. I think if Trump loses NC, it'll be because he's objectively ignored the state (and the amount of $$ he's put into advertising and ground game makes that pretty true). Where he's putting the vast amount of his resources into PA and GA. The biggest advantage that Kamala has over Trump (other than people generally liking her more as a person) is that the Democratic Party has done an insanely good job at raising $$ and spreading it out accordingly, while the RNC has been a disaster at doing so, and it's lead to electoral results like the 2022 midterms for them Edited September 9 by Bears01 1 1
Recommended Posts