Relampago. Posted September 8 Posted September 8 I've been saying it's over girls. Kamala gave us a masterclass in how to ruin momentum in a campaign. Her main critique that's been sticking is no one knows her policies or what she believed as Vice President and we don't know them now. The debate won't change a thing either, she's ruined her chance. If you are all very scared of a Trump presidency, I would start making arrangements for how you'll be living the next 4 years. I know I have. 1 2
Relampago. Posted September 8 Posted September 8 Also, now that the rose colored glasses are fully off— I don't expect her to do that good in the debate either. If she can't even face the media head on like Trump does and won't do as many interviews, then she is coming across as unprepared and unwilling to face pushback. And I can see now why her team was pushing so heavily for open mics, they wanted an "I'm speaking" moment so badly but now they're not getting it. A disappointing campaign, I shouldn't be surprised anymore though. 1 2
Thuggin Posted September 8 Posted September 8 Yeah not to be doomer - I know it's not over until it's over - but I've already accepted a second Trump term. America knows Trump better than they know anyone else at this point, they are already aware of his endless list of faults, and they seem to be deciding they want him back as President anyway. And America's memory is short, so I'm sure it will take Trump getting back in office for them to remember why they don't like him but for now they have pre-Covid nostalgia despite the fact prices will never go back to what they were in 2019. I was talking to someone the other day who claimed young people used to actually be able to buy a house before this administration. Is that true? Not really. But I think people have already made up their minds that the current administration is to blame for the state of things and they're desperate for a change. I'm already at the stage of "what do we do next once Trump is in office".
Armani? Posted September 8 Posted September 8 https://www.instagram.com/reel/C_qbonbPADE/?igsh=cTNsams0eTAzenY0 This is weak sauce Who ever posted this is dumb
Blade Posted September 8 Posted September 8 40 minutes ago, Relampago. said: I've been saying it's over girls. Kamala gave us a masterclass in how to ruin momentum in a campaign. Her main critique that's been sticking is no one knows her policies or what she believed as Vice President and we don't know them now. The debate won't change a thing either, she's ruined her chance. If you are all very scared of a Trump presidency, I would start making arrangements for how you'll be living the next 4 years. I know I have. Sis the NYT poll isn't good for her but let's also put it into perspective Past NYT swing state polls showed her winning. Today's Emerson swing state polls showed her winning or tied. And the NYT poll is unchanged from the last time they polled. Reminder that "it's over" is not a good way to look at the race when all election analysts are saying "its a toss up" 3
SlayianaGrenade Posted September 8 Posted September 8 We know Trump has a dedicated base that will come out and vote for him. Two senate seats in Florida and Texas are now tightening since Harris entered the race. Momentum is building in North Carolina. Registrations among black women( the ones who actually do the groundwork) has increased upwards over 100 percent compared to this time in 2020). Independents are starting to shift towards her. Harris has raised more than half a billion in an unprecedented time span, and ads are being rolled out everywhere at this moment. If Trump and his team were competent I'd be more worried too. But the doom posting a lot of you do is just tiring. It's really an insult to all the volunteers putting in the work on the ground. You know, the marginalized groups that volunteer, who a lot of you pretend to care about. 2
Communion Posted September 8 Posted September 8 (edited) 4 hours ago, Parachutes said: I just don't understand it People are acting like it makes sense for a campaign to not lay out their policies in a clear and accessible way The refusal to even put a summary of her speeches to her website is just oddly self-defeating. Even Biden had a policy page (after months of criticisms!). Copy and paste that? The VBNWM girlies love to claim leftists are fringe, but the more we see, if lefties are fringe, so are VBNMW and the average voter is volatile in how undecided they are still on Kamala and it just takes the easiest of slip-up's to frame her as dishonest, unintelligent, and standing for nothing to shift a toss-up election back into Trump's favor. I've tried to avoid really speaking about politics with normie friends, coworkers, family, etc. over the last 12 months and really just discuss politics with other leftists in my life for my own sanity, but the more I do engage due to the election coming up and it being something on people's mind more, I find 1) to my liberal girlies' credit, the median undecided voter is indeed ******* stupid (I do maintain wealthier people are more likely to have more idiotic views), and 2) this isn't close to anything of an easy race. I went to dinner recently with a disengaged liberal Dem who said she's probably not voting, a fellow hunty who's very VBNMW for Kamala, and a girly who basically fits 'Obama 08-Romney 12" as an identity and is hyper-focused on "Trump fixing this broken economy". The... anxiety and annoyance I was feeling at my liberal friend not being able to like.. actually defend Kamala? From things that just aren't true? Him praising her, getting told she wants to "raise your taxes to 50%", and only being able to retort with "well, I don't agree with that, but Trump is crazy, come on"?? The more I remember how stupid voters are, it brings me back to 2016, where I felt guilted into voting Dem, but I'm also more sure we're gonna lose., whereas my dumbass felt that maybe there were enough people also #ImWithHerIGuess to clinch Clinton the win. Edited September 8 by Communion 2 1
GhostBox Posted September 8 Posted September 8 This is a 50/50 race and maybe could say slightly Harris. Of course Trump will get a few good polls every now and then . That's how it works with close races. 1
Communion Posted September 8 Posted September 8 (edited) 5 minutes ago, SlayianaGrenade said: Two senate seats in Florida and Texas are now tightening since Harris entered the race. This isn't exactly true, fyi. Pundits are now saying to shift energy to Florida and Texas' Senate races, and I actually do agree (!), but because Tester's basically done. He's 100% going to lose to Sheehy at this point and throwing money his way is basically equivalent to burning it. That money should be spent giving Sherrod Brown more defensive spending and then deciding who is likelier to have a long-shot chance: Allred or Mucarsel-Powell. I think Florida is a hellmouth to the pits of hell and polling is actually missing just how red it now is, so give Tester's money to Allred at this point and say a prayer. At this point, the most likely Senate scenario is 51 R - 49 D and Dems' best case scenario is 50-50 if Allred could somehow pull off a miracle. Edited September 8 by Communion 1
Relampago. Posted September 8 Posted September 8 14 minutes ago, Blade said: Sis the NYT poll isn't good for her but let's also put it into perspective Past NYT swing state polls showed her winning. Today's Emerson swing state polls showed her winning or tied. And the NYT poll is unchanged from the last time they polled. Reminder that "it's over" is not a good way to look at the race when all election analysts are saying "its a toss up" I'll be voting for her, I'll be showing up to the polls no matter what. And if you still see hope, I don't want to crush that. I couldn't even if I wanted to, I don't have any more information than the next guy. But to me, the writing has been on the wall for the last few weeks and there's a clear difference in the campaign she started out running to where it is now. Kamala is GREAT at building hype (see: 2020 primaries) but once it comes down to getting to work and doing business, she crumbles and so does her campaign and with that, her support (see: 2020 primaries). She's a horrible campaigner, and I truly think we would have been better off with an open convention atp. If you think it being a toss up means she still has a shot, I don't see why that would be unreasonable to think based on data. That's what it tells us after all. But still, it feels like I've seen this film before and I'm pretty sure I can guess the ending. 1
GhostBox Posted September 8 Posted September 8 55 minutes ago, Relampago. said: Also, now that the rose colored glasses are fully off— I don't expect her to do that good in the debate either. If she can't even face the media head on like Trump does and won't do as many interviews, then she is coming across as unprepared and unwilling to face pushback. And I can see now why her team was pushing so heavily for open mics, they wanted an "I'm speaking" moment so badly but now they're not getting it. A disappointing campaign, I shouldn't be surprised anymore though. Girl you are overreacting 💀 take some Deep breathes. This is gonna be a long 2 months 3
SlayianaGrenade Posted September 8 Posted September 8 4 minutes ago, Communion said: This isn't exactly true, fyi. Pundits are now saying to shift energy to Florida and Texas' Senate races, and I actually do agree (!), but because Tester's basically done. That money should be spent giving Sherrod Brown more defensive spending and then deciding who is likelier to have a long-shot chance: Allred or Mucarsel-Powell. I think Florida is a hellmouth to the pits of hell and polling is actually missing just how red it now is, so give Tester's money to Allred at this point and say a prayer. Unless the polling I'm looking at, and the amount of incessant emails I receive from the Florida and Texas campaigns are just lying to me, the races there have tightened. I do agree with you on Tester tho. It was a loss that could have been prevented. I think you underestimate just how much Texans hate Ted Cruz haha. While it's true the Democratic base there is demotivated (for a multitude of reasons I could get into) people on both sides of the aisle don't care for him besides MAGAs. I agree with you on Florida too! I think Republicans in their polls are grossly underreported. But there is momentum and if you can get Miami-Dade and the surrounding areas to show up, I'm holding on to a little hope it's possible. 1
Lil Mistee Posted September 8 Posted September 8 it's like so ******* over like omgg like she's gonna flop the debate and say some dumb **** about buttering up a chicken and how she can crack an egg with one hand it's over ! 6 1
shelven Posted September 8 Posted September 8 38 minutes ago, Blade said: this is indefensible. **** this stupid cünt. Jill Stein single-handedly undoing the efforts of every leftist who tries to explain why Horseshoe Theory isn't real is just... The merits of the Green Party as an overall entity aside, it's very hard at this point to argue against Stein as an individual being an attention-seeking grifter. 6
GhostBox Posted September 8 Posted September 8 If I in the past could still find hope in Biden's chances when every poll was against him I'm sure you guys can find some hope when literally every poll the past 3 weeks have been in Harris's favor except one 💀 1
Blade Posted September 8 Posted September 8 Wasserman also pointing out that the EC bias is not as bad as 2020. Rightward shifts in CA, NY, and FL can contribute to a close national result while the swing states are as swingy as ever, not trending red. 4
shelven Posted September 8 Posted September 8 9 minutes ago, Blade said: Wasserman also pointing out that the EC bias is not as bad as 2020. Rightward shifts in CA, NY, and FL can contribute to a close national result while the swing states are as swingy as ever, not trending red. I know the Electoral College is an entirely different beast than House-level gerrymandering, but it's also worth remembering that the GOP won the House popular vote by almost 3% in 2022 but ended up with an essentially tied House (222-213). The national vote discrepancy isn't always this huge pro-GOP benefit, it just feels that way lately because of the last two presidential elections. Like I lowkey celebrate every time I see a Florida poll where Trump has a sizeable lead because it means that Florida's probably pulling the national popular vote to the right and reducing the Republcians' overall EC bias 4
dman4life Posted September 8 Posted September 8 (edited) Let's just save the meltdowns for if she fumbles the debate. No reason to be carrying on like this over a poll. Michelle Obama warned us this was coming. That said, I'm not understand why she still doesn't have any policy on her site. It's just such an unnecessary error. Edited September 8 by dman4life
Armani? Posted September 8 Posted September 8 It's only one polling site but the favorability is concerning for Kamala on Civiqs which is B Rated for some sub groups. Donald Trump is 47% Positive, 50% Negative with Hispanic men now. Overall Hispanic favorability of Trump has shifted 6 points to him compared to their results 2020, now 57% unfavorable, 40% favorable. Black men is very minor, it's up 3 points to 16% favorable for Trump which may just be noise. The overall Black vote only shifted 2 points compared to September 2020
GhostBox Posted September 8 Posted September 8 16 minutes ago, dman4life said: Let's just save the meltdowns for if she fumbles the debate. No reason to be carrying on like this over a poll. Michelle Obama warned us this was coming. Agreed. she needs a good debate. Or to just have a better one than Trump. he probably has the most to lose/win with this debate.
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