news 2024 US Election Megathread 🇺🇸🏛️

[Armani?]

Emerson Crosstabs
Texas Likely Voters +4 Trump
Black Voters 88% Kamala/8% Trump
Hispanic Voters 54% Kamala/44% Trump
White Voters 61% Trump, 35% Kamala
18 - 29 Voters
57% Kamala, 39% Trump

 

Texas With Leaners +3 Trump
Black Voters 91% Kamala/9% Trump
Hispanic Voters 55% Kamala/44% Trump
White Voters 62% Trump, 37% Kamala
18 - 29 Voters
60% Kamala, 39% Trump

 

Florida Likely Voters +4 Trump
Black Voters 75% Kamala/11% Trump
Hispanic Voters 48% Kamala/46% Trump
White Voters 59% Trump, 38% Kamala
18 - 29 Voters
48% Kamala, 33% Trump

 

Florida With Leaners +3 Trump
Black Voters 86% Kamala/13% Trump
Hispanic Voters 50% Kamala/48% Trump
White Voters 60% Trump, 39% Kamala
18 - 29 Voters
58% Kamala, 36% Trump

Edited September 6 by Armani?

[byzantium]

1 hour ago, YellowRibbon said:

Nate Silver's model gives a higher polling weight to Patriot Polls (ran by two right-wing n*tjobs) than YouGov(that's a very well known pollster, graded between A/A+)... That's all I need to know about it

This isn't even true.  Yougov is weighted higher and also rated higher. 

[Armani?]

Someone rounded wrong with that Emerson poll on twitter in Texas & Florida I think but whatever

[Blade]

RFK Jr officially off the NC ballot is a shame. They were supposed to be the first early voting state.

[GhostBox]

42 minutes ago, byzantium said:

This isn't even true.  Yougov is weighted higher and also rated higher. 

The right leaning polls have a greater influence on his model. 

[GhostBox]

2 minutes ago, Blade said:

RFK Jr officially off the NC ballot is a shame. They were supposed to be the first early voting state.

Just shows once again no one has to

Play by the rules except Dems. I mean he missed the deadline yet a gop judge forces the election (in NC) to be stopped on its first official day basically to take him off 💀

[GhostBox]

Mean while in NV 

 

[Armani?]

 

[byzantium]

15 minutes ago, GhostBox said:

The right leaning polls have a greater influence on his model. 

He says on his website he weighs more recent polls higher than older polls.  If you go on the website right now, there is a yougov poll from the same period as the one you note and it is weighted about 25% higher.  

[Blade]

Is it just me.... or is this not a good argument to defend the weighing of those rando R polls

 

 

[Vermillion]

 

[shelven]

9 minutes ago, Blade said:

Is it just me.... or is this not a good argument to defend the weighing of those rando R polls

 

 

"No you don't understand, my model is flawless BECAUSE I'm relying on code I wrote a full decade ago in a completely different electoral environment when aggressive partisan pollsters who exist solely to shape electoral narratives were a significantly smaller problem in the industry!" Oh he's LOST it

[midnightdawn]

Nate's so annoying, why do y'all live and die by what he says

[Lil Mistee]

 

shes at her peak I fear

[Blade]

10 minutes ago, midnightdawn said:

Nate's so annoying, why do y'all live and die by what he says

 

12 minutes ago, shelven said:

"No you don't understand, my model is flawless BECAUSE I'm relying on code I wrote a full decade ago in a completely different electoral environment when aggressive partisan pollsters who exist solely to shape electoral narratives were a significantly smaller problem in the industry!" Oh he's LOST it

I still think he's one of the better modelers but god how do her numbers and high quality pollsters point to going from 57% to less than 39% chance in less than a month? Your model is broken!!! Not entirely but at least when it comes to the way he handled her numbers post convention and the resistance to weighing what other very knowledgeable people call "junk polls" appropriately.

[Redstreak]

45 minutes ago, Lil Mistee said:

 

shes at her peak I fear

Im not necessarily hopeful but the debate is pretty much her last chance at having a lot of eyes on her for another boost. I can't believe the election is just two months away

[19SLAYty9]

If George W Bush endorses Kamala, what effect would it have?

[FameFatale]

 

[dabunique]

5 minutes ago, FameFatale said:

 

dats his calling card ...

 

he has done this in da last two election cycles

 

intimidation at its finest 

 

[shelven]

17 minutes ago, 19SLAYty9 said:

If George W Bush endorses Kamala, what effect would it have?

Some notable (but not massive) movement in her favour, I think. Anyone who's firmly in the MAGA camp already thinks Bush is an outdated establishment elite, so they won't care what he thinks. But it's easy to imagine some Republican-leaning swing voters who haven't quite bought the "Trump is an active threat to American democracy" line but who are finally convinced by the dramatic story of a president from one party endorsing the other party's candidate. An endorsement from Bush would make some Republicans feel like they now have "permission" to vote Dem for this cycle while maintaining their Republican identity.

[Blade]

 

Lose by less is a great strategy

 

 

[Relampago.]

1 hour ago, Blade said:

Is it just me.... or is this not a good argument to defend the weighing of those rando R polls

 

 

He is.. something

 

He should instead just remind people that his model is just that— a model. It likely won't even be fully accurate until just days before the election. Defending decade old code from during the Obama admin is…

[Relampago.]

24 minutes ago, 19SLAYty9 said:

If George W Bush endorses Kamala, what effect would it have?

I think we'd see small bumps for her, especially in states like AZ where Republicans are more traditional than MAGA, but nothing major. It wouldn't hurt if anything.

[Relampago.]

 

The way I wish my fellow project managers would make a meeting agenda with purpose and intent. If I don't have time for useless kickoffs/statuses where no one read the suggested documents and meetings that could be emails, I highly doubt the VP of the United States would

 

If anything, I'm wondering why other elected officials aren't expecting their staffers to be prepared.

 

[VOSS]