Tovitov Posted September 6 Posted September 6 8 minutes ago, hausofdave said: Before anyone gets cute, Dick Cheney would be a real cuck to vote for Trump given he ruined his daughters political career 1 2
Relampago. Posted September 6 Posted September 6 3 minutes ago, Relampago. said: Kinda interesting. Harris clearly is declining a bit but nowhere near as much as Nate's model indicates. I *really* hope they're overestimating Trump's support and we end up in a 2022 situation. 2 1
DR0GO Posted September 6 Posted September 6 I don't take anything Nate Silver says seriously anymore. 2 1 1
YellowRibbon Posted September 6 Posted September 6 Nate Silver's model gives a higher polling weight to Patriot Polls (ran by two right-wing n*tjobs) than YouGov(that's a very well known pollster, graded between A/A+)... That's all I need to know about it 2 2
CamCam Posted September 6 Posted September 6 (edited) Maybe it's me, but I just don't feel...."in fear" at the current moment? Maybe it's because I'm still riding on the notion that the Democratic party is still generally united more than it was before, and I'm already planning on voting for Kamala, but also polls are so finnicky that down-trending ones are expected along the way thru Election Day. And I do get fearmongering being a tactic (especially since we're dealing with Trump here), but it's also a double-edged sword that can be used against you if not done effectively and/or timed right. Hopefully her campaign understands that. Edited September 6 by CamCam 2
BeenTheShit Posted September 6 Posted September 6 (edited) Well, I'm going to hell. I saw Andrea Mitchell's name trending on Twitter and thought finally we're free. Turns out she was just defending JD Vance's 'fact of life" comment. Edited September 6 by BeenTheShit 1
ClashAndBurn Posted September 6 Posted September 6 1 hour ago, Tovitov said: Before anyone gets cute, Dick Cheney would be a real cuck to vote for Trump given he ruined his daughters political career Not... really. If she wanted to, she could easily run as a Democrat (outside of Wyoming of course) and maintain a fruitful career as a liberal darling. Or a slot as a pundit on MSNBC, she would at least have more credibility than Ronna Romney McDaniel. The Democrats are more and more becoming a home for the neocons that chose to cheerlead us into illegal forever wars while the left becomes more and more homeless each election cycle. 1
i spit on haters Posted September 6 Posted September 6 3 hours ago, Parachutes said: But this is not going to happen because Kamala will win. Trump is on track to lose. He's cooked! 2
i spit on haters Posted September 6 Posted September 6 45 minutes ago, CamCam said: Maybe it's me, but I just don't feel...."in fear" at the current moment? Maybe it's because I'm still riding on the notion that the Democratic party is still generally united more than it was before, and I'm already planning on voting for Kamala, but also polls are so finnicky that down-trending ones are expected along the way thru Election Day. And I do get fearmongering being a tactic (especially since we're dealing with Trump here), but it's also a double-edged sword that can be used against you if not done effectively and/or timed right. Hopefully her campaign understands that. Same. Of course we can't become complacent, though. But I do firmly believe women voters will carry this election to victory. They're also registering to vote in record numbers. The policy of abortion and their rights is a big driving-force. I also think Gen-z will turn out in big numbers this election cycle. Trump has peaked already and isn't gaining new voters, Harris is. Even Trump's support with those damn evangelicals is declining. He's over. 4
montacelo Posted September 6 Posted September 6 1 hour ago, YellowRibbon said: Nate Silver's model gives a higher polling weight to Patriot Polls (ran by two right-wing n*tjobs) than YouGov(that's a very well known pollster, graded between A/A+)... That's all I need to know about it This
Vermillion Posted September 6 Posted September 6 1 hour ago, YellowRibbon said: Nate Silver's model gives a higher polling weight to Patriot Polls (ran by two right-wing n*tjobs) than YouGov(that's a very well known pollster, graded between A/A+)... That's all I need to know about it Thank you for this. 1
Blankspace2010 Posted September 6 Posted September 6 (edited) Nate Silver has made a money-grabbing career out of polling. Polling can be used tactically to change a narrative of a race. Nate follows the money now and not the race. That's all there is to say on that matter. Edited September 6 by Blankspace2010 1 1
byzantium Posted September 6 Posted September 6 1 hour ago, Relampago. said: Kinda interesting. Harris clearly is declining a bit but nowhere near as much as Nate's model indicates. I *really* hope they're overestimating Trump's support and we end up in a 2022 situation. A few things here: (1) including Minnesota here skews things. (2) I don't really follow models that much but the shift in PA is pretty notable and probably what is sparking the concern. If Harris loses PA she needs to win GA and NV but that will not work if she loses MI with PA. Personally, I would find it a little surprising if PA went a different way than MI. 2 1
Armani? Posted September 6 Posted September 6 (edited) Emerson Crosstabs Texas Likely Voters +4 Trump Black Voters 88% Kamala/8% Trump Hispanic Voters 54% Kamala/44% Trump White Voters 61% Trump, 35% Kamala 18 - 29 Voters 57% Kamala, 39% Trump Texas With Leaners +3 Trump Black Voters 91% Kamala/9% Trump Hispanic Voters 55% Kamala/44% Trump White Voters 62% Trump, 37% Kamala 18 - 29 Voters 60% Kamala, 39% Trump Florida Likely Voters +4 Trump Black Voters 75% Kamala/11% Trump Hispanic Voters 48% Kamala/46% Trump White Voters 59% Trump, 38% Kamala 18 - 29 Voters 48% Kamala, 33% Trump Florida With Leaners +3 Trump Black Voters 86% Kamala/13% Trump Hispanic Voters 50% Kamala/48% Trump White Voters 60% Trump, 39% Kamala 18 - 29 Voters 58% Kamala, 36% Trump Edited September 6 by Armani? 3
byzantium Posted September 6 Posted September 6 1 hour ago, YellowRibbon said: Nate Silver's model gives a higher polling weight to Patriot Polls (ran by two right-wing n*tjobs) than YouGov(that's a very well known pollster, graded between A/A+)... That's all I need to know about it This isn't even true. Yougov is weighted higher and also rated higher.
Armani? Posted September 6 Posted September 6 Someone rounded wrong with that Emerson poll on twitter in Texas & Florida I think but whatever
Blade Posted September 6 Posted September 6 RFK Jr officially off the NC ballot is a shame. They were supposed to be the first early voting state.
GhostBox Posted September 6 Posted September 6 42 minutes ago, byzantium said: This isn't even true. Yougov is weighted higher and also rated higher. The right leaning polls have a greater influence on his model. 2 2
GhostBox Posted September 6 Posted September 6 2 minutes ago, Blade said: RFK Jr officially off the NC ballot is a shame. They were supposed to be the first early voting state. Just shows once again no one has to Play by the rules except Dems. I mean he missed the deadline yet a gop judge forces the election (in NC) to be stopped on its first official day basically to take him off 💀
byzantium Posted September 6 Posted September 6 15 minutes ago, GhostBox said: The right leaning polls have a greater influence on his model. He says on his website he weighs more recent polls higher than older polls. If you go on the website right now, there is a yougov poll from the same period as the one you note and it is weighted about 25% higher.
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