GhostBox Posted September 2 Posted September 2 1 minute ago, Blankspace2010 said: PA defo doesn't look great and neither does MI for that matter. Michigan and Wisconsin are surprisingly the swing states she's doing the best in. ๐
dabunique Posted September 2 Posted September 2 15 hours ago, Relampago. said: Is king @dabunique running the Kamala wins account? ย Finallyย 1
shelven Posted September 2 Posted September 2 It's also worth remembering that the Harris campaign has a literallyย unprecedentedย amount of money. If we see them devoting a lot of resources into places like Georgia and North Carolina, or even Florida and Texas, I think that's less of a statement about where their priorities/perceived paths to victory are and more just a consequence of them having so much money that they can afford to just dump it wherever they want. Her first rally post-VP announcement was in Philly and she's back in PA today, her campaign clearly understands it's an important state and their clearest path to victory. 6
CaptainMusic Posted September 2 Posted September 2 52 minutes ago, Relampago. said: ย Part of me is really starting to think she should have just picked Shapiro in the end. Whatever, he sucks but they're going down the pro-Israel route anyways and I really do not think people would have given enough f*cks about the murder coverup and sexual assault allegations tbh. I love Walz and he's easily my favorite person on both tickets but I don't think anything he's achieved couldn't have been achieved with Shapiro besides the week of excitement and enthusiasm that Walz brought.ย Yeah I've been thinking the same.ย ย I wanted her to pick Walz because I thought it would help her win back a lot of leftists but many of them aren't even voting for her and are still dragging her for Israel so she really should've just picked Shapiro ย 2
Lightbringer007 Posted September 2 Posted September 2 1 hour ago, Relampago. said: No, I get it. I wouldn't be as negative if it wasn't right after the DNC though. Not just having no effect, but having a negative effect.. yeah the polls there lately have been right leaning ones but idk. Just doesn't feel good I guess.ย ย Part of me is really starting to think she should have just picked Shapiro in the end. Whatever, he sucks but they're going down the pro-Israel route anyways and I really do not think people would have given enough f*cks about the murder coverup and sexual assault allegations tbh. I love Walz and he's easily my favorite person on both tickets but I don't think anything he's achieved couldn't have been achieved with Shapiro besides the week of excitement and enthusiasm that Walz brought.ย ย I hope they were tactical and still saw a path to victory in PA but based on the heavy campaigning in GA, I have a feeling they're hoping they can swing GA/AZ this to make up for a PA loss. Not that they've given up PA but it doesn't look great. what would have shapiro brought to the table thou ... if anything things would prob look even worse knowing his record
shelven Posted September 2 Posted September 2 58 minutes ago, Relampago. said: and I really do not think people would have given enough f*cks about the murder coverup and sexual assault allegations tbh The mainstream media has been desperately trying to make "Walz lied about his entire service because he used the phrase 'guns we used in battle' symbolically" and "Walz lied about his family's birthing struggles because he claimed to use IVF when he actually used a treatment under the common umbrella of IVF." They would have goneย wildย with the sexual harassment and murder coverup stories ย ย If anything, the last few weeks have pretty clearly proven that Shapiro wouldย notย have survived his skeletons and that the perceived benefit he brought to PA would have been heavily watered down, if not killed entirely, by the time the Republicans and the media were done with him. 6 3
Sannie Posted September 2 Posted September 2 3 hours ago, Relampago. said: Is anyone else like, really worried about PA? During the post-convention period, it just seems like polls for Harris got worse there.ย ย It's starting to look bleak againโฆ Well, when all you do is pay attention to the unreliable polls, I can see why you'd think this way.ย It's incredibly close, but that does not mean "have gotten worse" at all. The only polls that show Trump ahead are the Republican pollsters, some of which cannot fudge the data enough to even give Trump a lead. ย Follow and pay attention to Josh here ย ย When he starts to get worried, we should too. ย 1 hour ago, shelven said: It's honestly very odd we have so little high-quality PA polling considering the news organizations that operate high-quality pollsters are all the same ones who won't shut up about how PA is the most important state in the election There are some slated to be conducted and released in the next couple weeks. ย ย 54 minutes ago, Blankspace2010 said: PA defo doesn't look great and neither does MI for that matter. Again, y'all are falling into the doom trap that the Republican pollsters want you to when they flood the zone with their shitty polls. Harris is up in MI and has been for a while now. It's not a major lead, but a lead nonetheless. 538 has the odds at 60/40 Harris. 1 4
Relampago. Posted September 2 Posted September 2 18 minutes ago, Lightbringer007 said: what would have shapiro brought to the table thou ... if anything things would prob look even worse knowing his record Theoretically it would improve her standing in PA, the polls showing the ticket with Shapiro instead of Walz showed us as much. We don't know if Shapiro would have fatally harmed her campaign in places like MI, but I kinda doubt it would have atp. ย 18 minutes ago, shelven said: The mainstream media has been desperately trying to make "Walz lied about his entire service because he used the phrase 'guns we used in battle' symbolically" and "Walz lied about his family's birthing struggles because he claimed to use IVF when he actually used a treatment under the common umbrella of IVF." They would have goneย wildย with the sexual harassment and murder coverup stories ย ย If anything, the last few weeks have pretty clearly proven that Shapiro wouldย notย have survived his skeletons and that the perceived benefit he brought to PA would have been heavily watered down, if not killed entirely, by the time the Republicans and the media were done with him. Oh, I have no doubts that the media storm around Shapiro would have been a nightmare, but I'm not entirely convinced that it would have mattered at the end of the day. It's obviously not working on Walz because there's just not much there to attack, but I look at candidates like Vance who are just ****ing horrible, clearly has no synergy with Trump and it doesn't seem to matter. The VP pick seems rather inconsequential, but like I said above, polling shows that PA really could have been shored up with a Shapiro pick.ย ย The media could have cried about Shapiro till the cows home, but I really don't see a scenario where people in PA see the stories and think: "hmm, actually **** Shapiro!" after they just voted him in. I'm personally glad she chose Walz so we just avoid that headache altogether but I'm just less sure he was the right strategic choice, despite being the better ~vibes~ (and ideological if that matters anymore) choice. ย 14 minutes ago, Sannie said: Well, when all you do is pay attention to the unreliable polls, I can see why you'd think this way.ย It's incredibly close, but that does not mean "have gotten worse" at all. The only polls that show Trump ahead are the Republican pollsters, some of which cannot fudge the data enough to even give Trump a lead. ย Follow and pay attention to Josh here ย ย When he starts to get worried, we should too. ย There are some slated to be conducted and released in the next couple weeks. Yeah, this is what I'm holding out for, but it's kinda serving aย ย ย tea at this point. I won't fully sound the alarm yet because we have been getting such a strong influx of R-leaning pollsters but if things don't start to shift even slightly in favor of Harris a week after the debateโฆ it's time for a real pop emergency.ย ย I don't want to be all gloom and doom on Labor Day though, so let me say this: I'm very skeptical of GA right now. I feel like she hasn't fully reached her ceiling there yet, and I see the scenario where she loses PA, but wins GA/AZ as more realistic than I think it's given credit for. I'd love to just win PA/MI/WI and end the night early and the Harris campaign probably feels the same, but GA/AZ feel like a great plan B to aim for, which seems to be what they're doing.ย 2
Temporal Posted September 2 Posted September 2 Pennsylvania being the most important state in the election and also one of the latest to count its votes... it's gonna be a long night on Nov. 5thย 3
Relampago. Posted September 2 Posted September 2 5 minutes ago, Temporal said: Pennsylvania being the most important state in the election and also one of the latest to count its votes... it's gonna be a long night on Nov. 5thย When we lose PA but win GA and have to wait for AZ to finish counting after a week <<<< 1
Communion Posted September 2 Posted September 2 1 hour ago, CaptainMusic said: Yeah I've been thinking the same.ย ย I wanted her to pick Walz because I thought it would help her win back a lot of leftists but many of them aren't even voting for her and are still dragging her for Israel so she really should've just picked Shapiro ย Her internal polling showed Shapiro gave no meaningfully bounce in PA.ย ย If you think leftists are waffling because of her recent appeals to the center, what do you think picking someone who is pro-genocide not just for political gain but ethnic nationalism would have done? ย Yall cant want to be politicos but be this weak in the knees over polling.ย 2
shelven Posted September 2 Posted September 2 21 minutes ago, Relampago. said: and I see the scenario where she loses PA, but wins GA/AZ as more realistic than I think it's given credit for. Definitely agree with this. I saw a screenshot from Nate Silver's model recently where he apparently has Trump at 94% odds of winning the presidency if he wins PA, and thatย reallyย fails the eye test to me. He's certainlyย favouredย if he wins PA, but giving Harris an only 6% chance of winning MI/WI/[one of NV/AZ]/GA but losing PA seems way too low. On paper, Georgia and Arizona feel like more Harris-friendly states than PA (with Georgia's demographics favouring her more and Arizona having more of those suburban, McCain-loving, anti-weird voters). I think her campaign is correctly making the assessment that PA is her easiest path to 270 if she can win it, but it's not her only viable path. 5
Temporal Posted September 2 Posted September 2 On 9/1/2024 at 12:22 PM, shelven said: ย Harris getting super close to flipping to a positive net favourability on 538's average. One or two more high-quality polls where she's in the positive (assuming we don't also get high-quality polls showing her with a big negative) should do it. Does anyone know how late-deciding voters in 2020 broke? I know in 2016 that they broke for Trump, but I think that Kamala's favorables being 9 pts better than Trump's today would make her the favorite with that group this time around, which would be crucial.
Communion Posted September 2 Posted September 2 Though, to be.a chaos agent, I will say I do find it funny that PA seems so tight and they're seemingly dedicating so much time going after Jill Stein when... ย It's not hard to imagine this happening: ย ย ย 1
shelven Posted September 2 Posted September 2 15 minutes ago, Temporal said: Does anyone know how late-deciding voters in 2020 broke? I know in 2016 that they broke for Trump, but I think that Kamala's favorables being 9 pts better than Trump's today would make her the favorite with that group this time around, which would be crucial. Take this with a grain of salt because exit polls are notoriously unreliable and the sample size of late-deciding voters is small (so we're looking at a high margin of error crosstab within an already unreliable poll ) But according to NYT's 2020 exit polls, Trump won by 5 among voters who decided in the month before the election, and Biden won by 4 among voters who decided before that: ย ย https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html
Communion Posted September 2 Posted September 2 (edited) 27 minutes ago, Communion said: Though, to be.a chaos agent, I will say I do find it funny that PA seems so tight and they're seemingly dedicating so much time going after Jill Stein when... ย It's not hard to imagine this happening: ย ย ย Wait.ย ย ย @DNC Y'all fighting the wrong battles when Pete Buttigieg's tethered is about to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. ย ย (I'm screaming, this man's politics are really actually insane jnknkj) Edited September 2 by Communion 1
ultraviolence.xx Posted September 2 Posted September 2 lemme get my glasses because i know i did not walk in to ratpiro stanning in this month of our lord and savior september 2024 ย 13
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