i spit on haters Posted August 30 Posted August 30 40 minutes ago, GhostBox said: ย Harris is going to win. I want everyone to stop saying Trump is going to pull a surprise win. He's peaked, his rallies are shrinking, he's not gaining new voters, he's losing key swing-states, tanking in the polls, fat and ugly. He's over and I don't want to hear otherwise.ย 2 4 1
Communion Posted August 30 Posted August 30 36 minutes ago, Prisoner said: I know the US has flawed democracy. But among the big countries like India, China, Russia, US etc. you guys have a democracy the rest of us could only dream of.ย The elephant in the room being this democracy is real unless you don't support slaughtering Palestinians. To which you then deserve the full force of one of the deadliest police states forced upon you.ย ย ย ย 4
BeenTheShit Posted August 30 Posted August 30 I'm not sure if this was posted already, but this ad needs to run across every TV network because they cooked him.ย ย 3
on the line Posted August 30 Posted August 30 1 hour ago, Bloo said: This is patently false. We don't even crack the top 20: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist_Democracy_Index ย Again, the United States is an oligarchy where both major parties are bought off by billionaires. George Bush passed massive tax cuts on the rich when he was in office, the Democrats criticized him as they should. However, when the Obama administration came into power, Obama and Biden made those same tax cutsย permanent. Democrats across the country are criminalizing poverty; Democrats have built more of Trump's border wall than Trump himself; etc. Youre missing their very real and relevant point even if they, as a non-American, didn't get all the details right. 2 1
on the line Posted August 30 Posted August 30 9 minutes ago, i spit on haters said: Harris is going to win. I want everyone to stop saying Trump is going to pull a surprise win. He's peaked, his rallies are shrinking, he's not gaining new voters, he's losing key swing-states, tanking in the polls, fat and ugly. He's over and I don't want to hear otherwise.ย Some us remember how that attitude worked out for us in 2016, so, no, we will not act as if his presidency is no longer a threat.
ATRL Moderator Bloo Posted August 30 ATRL Moderator Posted August 30 11 hours ago, on the line said: Youre missing their very real and relevant point even if they, as a non-American, didn't get all the details right. They missed my very real and relevant point as well. We disagree. And thatโs fine. People are free to vote for Kamala over Trump. But, if Kamala loses because she chose to bungle her momentum by moving to the right, thatโs on her. Itโs her job to win over voters. 2 4 1 1
on the line Posted August 30 Posted August 30 3 minutes ago, Bloo said: They missed my very very and relevant point as well. We disagree. And that's fine. People are free to vote for Kamala over Trump. But, if Kamala loses because she chose to bungle her momentum by moving to the right, that's on her. It's her job to win over voters. Lmao. ย That willย neverย be the reason she loses an election to Donald Trump. Like wtf. Lmao. 1 5
Popular Post Blade Posted August 30 Popular Post Posted August 30 I love how this thread is relentlessly dragging Kamala on Palestine and her moving to the right on other issues and then we have ghost box posting some girl boss/try-hard wholesome Kamala content in between. 16
Prisoner Posted August 30 Posted August 30 32 minutes ago, Communion said: The elephant in the room being this democracy is real unless you don't support slaughtering Palestinians. To which you then deserve the full force of one of the deadliest police states forced upon you.ย ย ย ย I respect your opinions and tuly understand you as a fulltime bernie supporter myself since 2015. I know palestine is such a big issue and you're right i agree with you. But even as a minority in my own country who has to vote against his best interests even when the own party i vote for is not for my own kind, I'm still for them cause im still for democracy, where they're can be some discourse and not total censorship 1
Gottasadae Posted August 30 Posted August 30 1 hour ago, GhostBox said: I wonder if they will have big rallies through out this bus tour too? ๐๐ผ ย I think, it's a pure waste of money and energy, at this point Florida is a lost cause< I don't see it to flip it for her. She better put all this money on PA, NC, GA and AZ 1 1
Sanctuary Posted August 30 Posted August 30 1 hour ago, i spit on haters said: Harris is going to win. I want everyone to stop saying Trump is going to pull a surprise win. He's peaked, his rallies are shrinking, he's not gaining new voters, he's losing key swing-states, tanking in the polls, fat and ugly. He's over and I don't want to hear otherwise.ย Barring some catastrophic shift in public sentiment or a large polling data error, this is also unironically where I'm at now. She's risen too far and too fast, and Trump/Vance's weirdo theatrics are...not meeting the moment to put it lightly. That being said, I'm still going into November like we're down in the half.ย 1
monologueNacafe Posted August 30 Posted August 30 37 minutes ago, on the line said: Lmao. ย That willย neverย be the reason she loses an election to Donald Trump. Like wtf. Lmao. Are you 12? 3
GhostBox Posted August 30 Posted August 30 1 hour ago, Blade said: I love how this thread is relentlessly dragging Kamala on Palestine and her moving to the right on other issues and then we have ghost box posting some girl boss/try-hard wholesome Kamala content in between. You're welcome ๐คย 2 8
shelven Posted August 30 Posted August 30 4 hours ago, Sannie said: Sure... but when the crosstabs are objectively insane, you have to wonder if you can trust the entire methodology?ย This isn't really how it works though. The methodology might be perfectly fine but an individual crosstab might still look wildly off because that's how random sampling error in small sample sizes work. When you look at a single crosstab, you're basically looking at a poll of only 100 people (sometimes even less), so margins of error are super high and can lead to some wacky results. The statistical explanation is that all of those errors will cancel each other out on average, so the topline (which is based on the entire sample size and so has a significantly smaller margin of error) will be less uncertain.ย 3
shelven Posted August 30 Posted August 30 Unrelated, but is anyone else worried about the NC Gov race despite Stein's strong polling? I don't believe in the "shy voter" as an explanation for polling error (as I've discussed before), but what Iย canย believe is that some people who are responding to these polls might have genuinely convincedย themselvesย that they're undecided or leaning Stein because they don't want to admit to themselves that they'll end up voting for someone as awful and insane as Robinson ย I think Stein probably still pulls out the win because Robinson is legitimately unhinged, but I think that race is going to end up being a lot closer than polls are showing 4
Blade Posted August 30 Posted August 30 5 minutes ago, shelven said: Unrelated, but is anyone else worried about the NC Gov race despite Stein's strong polling? I don't believe in the "shy voter" as an explanation for polling error (as I've discussed before), but what Iย canย believe is that some people who are responding to these polls might have genuinely convincedย themselvesย that they're undecided or leaning Stein because they don't want to admit to themselves that they'll end up voting for someone as awful and insane as Robinson ย I think Stein probably still pulls out the win because Robinson is legitimately unhinged, but I think that race is going to end up being a lot closer than polls are showing I think in true NC fashion it'll end up being within a pt or 2 3
Luckitty Posted August 30 Posted August 30 4 hours ago, Sannie said: "I want millions to die." ย But let me guess, you're anti-genocide? ย literally who said that ย "millions" aren't gonna die if the us breaks up into smaller countriesย 1
dman4life Posted August 30 Posted August 30 I think most of us here feel that Kamala will win this but we've all got 2016 ptsd hanging over us so we're not being too optimistic. Trump's sudden proposal on IVF tells me that internals are looking even worse than the public polling.ย ย However I caution myself to not be too optimistic because anything can still happen and Trump somehow pulling out a win won't be surprising in the least bit. 4
ATRL Moderator Bloo Posted August 30 ATRL Moderator Posted August 30 6 minutes ago, dman4life said: I think most of us here feel that Kamala will win this but we've all got 2016 ptsd hanging over us so we're not being too optimistic. Trump's sudden proposal on IVF tells me that internals are looking even worse than the public polling.ย ย However I caution myself to not be too optimistic because anything can still happen and Trump somehow pulling out a win won't be surprising in the least bit. I mean, forget 2016. Biden had a sizable lead in 2020; Hillary was within the margin of error in 2016 in the three states she lost. Despite Biden's sizable lead, he barely won in 2020. There's plenty of reason to be apprehensive about Kamala's chances. The EC naturally benefits Republican candidates so it's unwise to be too confident. There's also a lot that can happen between now and November. 6
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