Blade Posted August 29 Posted August 29 5 minutes ago, Relampago. said: I really think you guys are overestimating the abortion vote helping Kamala where it's on the ballot.ย ย I think many people will be happy to vote pro-abortion and think: "Great! We got our reproductive rights back, now let's fill in that Trump bubble and get our economy right back on track!" I'm sure that's exactly what's going on in states like Florida, and I'm guessing that's what's going to happen in places like NV and AZ. ย I'm really not trying to bring doomer energy because SO much can change the race from now to November, but the data is showing us very different stories than what we're predicting here. At least in regards to this. While I agree the data is jarring in FL, with an abortion initiative at 60% approval vs Trump winning by 4-5pts, it's not just abortion. All the data we have now has swing state Senate and Gov races being won by Dems in large margins. ย Don't get me wrong it's still a close race. But in AZ for example, the abortion initiative combined with Gallego/Lake is only good for Harris. Sure there are voters who have pro abortion views and will vote for Trump. But that was a thing in 2020 as well. 2
GhostBox Posted August 29 Posted August 29 Just now, dabunique said: ย She's actually pretty good at interviews. I don't buy into the whole "She NEEDS to do more media interviews" talking point but it wouldn't hurt her.ย ย I also like the fact she has her running mate with her. We are voting for a team. And She and Walz are far better than Trump/Vance ๐๐ผ 1
Blade Posted August 29 Posted August 29 2 minutes ago, dabunique said: ย The tweet made me cringe but watching the interview I am shocked at how good her answer was. 4
Blade Posted August 29 Posted August 29 That clip made me slightly less nervous for her at the debate. She seems ready to take on hard questions from the moderators and criticism from Trump regardless of whether it's in good faith or not. 2
Tovitov Posted August 29 Posted August 29 Ehh, if you find yourself getting stressed or bummed out, take a breather for a few days and come back. We've got 3 more months of this, you're not gonna miss much.ย 3 1
Tovitov Posted August 29 Posted August 29 Oh, also, Nate Silvers model is being silly. He said it's subtracting 2 points from Harris every poll to compensate for a DNC bounce. Gonna take weeks for that effect to wear offย 1
Armani? Posted August 29 Posted August 29 So this is their move to stop the bleeding of Hispanic Men voters, thoughts? ย 2
Gottasadae Posted August 29 Posted August 29 6 minutes ago, FameFatale said: ย ย and you guys are wondering how Trump can get another term, look at these ppl and how many other idiots are still out there rooting for himย
FameFatale Posted August 29 Posted August 29 Just now, Gottasadae said: and you guys are wondering how Trump can get another term, look at these ppl and how many other idiots are still out there rooting for himย Reminds me of that report that came out that said behind doors everyone hates Trump and mocks him and secretly wants nothing to do with him. Of course they want power and will do anything to keep it. That means going on Fox News and saying things that aren't true for him.ย
Blade Posted August 29 Posted August 29 10 minutes ago, Armani? said: So this is their move to stop the bleeding of Hispanic Men voters, thoughts? ย It's okay. I can see it helping low propensity voters' opinions on her. Think non-english speaking Gen X/boomer Latinas/Latinos. The issue would be her mobilizing them to vote based on this change in favorability. 1
Sannie Posted August 29 Posted August 29 35 minutes ago, Relampago. said: I really think you guys are overestimating the abortion vote helping Kamala where it's on the ballot.ย ย I think many people will be happy to vote pro-abortion and think: "Great! We got our reproductive rights back, now let's fill in that Trump bubble and get our economy right back on track!" I'm sure that's exactly what's going on in states like Florida, and I'm guessing that's what's going to happen in places like NV and AZ. ย I'm really not trying to bring doomer energy because SO much can change the race from now to November, but the data is showing us very different stories than what we're predicting here. At least in regards to this. I don't think anyone thinks it moves the needle enough in a place like FL, but AZ where the needle only needs to move a little bit, absolutely. ย 23 minutes ago, Blade said: That clip made me slightly less nervous for her at the debate. She seems ready to take on hard questions from the moderators and criticism from Trump regardless of whether it's in good faith or not. She's very obviously been practicing which to me is refreshing. It shows an absence of ego which is rare.
Vroom Vroom Posted August 29 Posted August 29 15 minutes ago, Blade said: While I agree the data is jarring in FL, with an abortion initiative at 60% approval vs Trump winning by 4-5pts, it's not just abortion. All the data we have now has swing state Senate and Gov races being won by Dems in large margins. ย Don't get me wrong it's still a close race. But in AZ for example, the abortion initiative combined with Gallego/Lake is only good for Harris. Sure there are voters who have pro abortion views and will vote for Trump. But that was a thing in 2020 as well. It is important to look a past elections too. Dems did well in swing state elections in 22,23 and 24ย ย AZ: Kobbs beating Lake and Kelly winning his faceย WI: Protasiewicz winning the SC electionย PA: Shapiro and Fetterman winning ()ย GA: Warnock keeping his seatย NV: Cortez Masto keeping her seatย MI: Whitmer mega winย ย Then add the current senate polls for 2024. There is already a pathway for Kamala to pick up these states 1
Lil Mxnster Posted August 29 Posted August 29 40 minutes ago, Armani? said: So this is their move to stop the bleeding of Hispanic Men voters, thoughts? ย It's niceย ย I like when it highlights her work as a prosecutor and it mentions that she worked with both Republicans and Democrats to pass laws, but I don't get why they always have to use that clichรฉ Latin musicย 1 1 1
Harrier Posted August 29 Posted August 29 Harris looks strong in the interview. Idk what's happened with her for her previous anxiousness to have evaporated even though now that the stakes are much higherย 3
dman4life Posted August 29 Posted August 29 That (and any future) interview isn't going to move the needle. Undecided voters are going to make their decisions based on the debates since it's going to be a direct comparison. This is why the Harris campaign is pushing for hot mics because even if Kamala crushes it the media is still going to horse race it and gush about how "disciplined" Trump was going against a tougher opponent. Besides the debates ofc the best thing Kamala can do is continue her current trajectory of talking to voters, big rallies and a slow but steady policy rollout. She also needs to get those policies on her website, no need to give Trump any easy attack lines at the debate. 6
GhostBox Posted August 29 Posted August 29 I remember someone on here talking about how no one ever talks about the "working class". During her rally in GA she specifically talked about the "working class" 1
karron0624 Posted August 29 Posted August 29 21 minutes ago, FameFatale said: He's cluelessย ย ย He cant vote can he? He is a felon?
GhostBox Posted August 29 Posted August 29 1 minute ago, karron0624 said: He cant vote can he? He is a felon? He can in Floridaย
Sannie Posted August 29 Posted August 29 28 minutes ago, FameFatale said: He's cluelessย ย ย "I'm voting that we need more than six weeks..." ย That's... that's not how voting works. ย 1
KylieistBoi Posted August 29 Posted August 29 2 hours ago, Lil Mistee said: Say that to floriduh Florida is its own beast. I don't think it is fair to put AZ and NV in the same box with FL.
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