news 2024 US Election Megathread 🇺🇸🏛️

[Sannie]

 

 

Nate's PA polling using Trafalgar, Rasmussen, Farbrizio...

 

I get that these are individual people just trying to make sense of the race, but my goodness the narratives shift so easy bc of stuff like this.

[GhostBox]

46 minutes ago, Redstreak said:

Yeah I think people here can sometimes forget how much more invested they are in politics vs the average person. Most people aren't gonna go to her website let alone check the policy page. I was talking to someone a few years younger than me that literally had *no* idea that a month ago someone tried to shoot Trump 💀 like there are a lot of people that just don't pay attention until right before voting

And honestly does anyone go to any candidates website to check out their policies anymore 💀

[Relampago.]

1 hour ago, Sannie said:

The polls in the past have also underestimated Dems so I'm not sure why that's always ignored in favor of "polls underestimating Trump". This time around, Trump has to contend with having universally hated whack-jobs on the ticket with him. The Republican party scares people and those people know Trump = those Republicans. I get the pessimism and would argue it's better to be on the scared side more than the positive side, but a lot of your concerns don't seem to be showing in the data?

 

For example, the economy is always a weak spot for Dems. The data does show Kamala eating away at a small percentage of Trump's lead in this aspect, but she will never realistically gain a lot of ground there. However, that hasn't stopped Dems from winning. Abortion has been a winning message since Roe was overturned and there's no such thing as "relying too heavily" on something that is effectively a civil rights issue for a large voting bloc in this country. It just works. 

 

Also, I don't think the majority of voters are visiting the websites and care if there's a policy page. She just needs to hammer it in with online and TV messaging.

The polls have underestimated Dems, sure, but they've never underestimated them against Trump specifically. That's important. Trump is clearly an anomaly of a candidate since we see his cronies and copycats get stomped out, despite having similar approaches to their campaigns. Like you mentioned, that should be hurting his campaign but… it's not? Despite his cronies tanking in polls, he just isn't. People seem to think Trump is a separate entity than the Republican Party as a whole and will gladly split a ticket for him. 

 

Abortion is definitely a winning and important message, I'm just not convinced it's enough yet. And while Dems are always weaker on the economy for people, there are some elections where it does matter and where it doesn't (2020 and 2022 didn't seem to matter as much iirc based on exit polls). Unfortunately it seems 2024 isn't that year.

 

I agree that most people are not even looking at a policy page which makes it all the more unreasonable to not have one imo. Throw some general policies up there with minimal details and I think that would satisfy most. But not having one at all is very easy to target.

 

Also, I hope I'm absolutely wrong! I just want to err on the side of negative like you said, because I don't think I could handle 2016 again.  

Edited August 29 by Relampago.

[tiejc]

This election is giving an extremely unhealthy amount of anxiety

[i spit on haters]

18 minutes ago, GhostBox said:

And honestly does anyone go to any candidates website to check out their policies anymore 💀

lol, no. I've never really known this to be a talking point among average voters. Only political pundits make mention of it. Having a laid out policy plan on her site wouldn't hurt, of course. But most voters typically look for that information straight from the candidate they're supporting. Interviews and rallies, for sure. Or they'll just parrot what CNN & MSNBC says said candidate is going to do.  

[Thuggin]

I think the one thing people can't underestimate is despite the felony convictions, despite January 6th, despite Project 2025, Trump is more popular than ever. Anecdotally, I don't know anyone who voted for him in 2016 and/or 2020 but won't be voting for him this year. In fact, it's the opposite: I only know people who either didn't vote or voted Biden in 2020 but are voting for Trump this year.

 

Even my brother who I never thought would vote for Trump - he voted for Gary Johnson in 2016, supported Bernie in the 2020 primaries, and ultimately voted for Biden in 2020 - switched and is now supporting Trump. He lives in New York City now though so his vote doesn't matter anyway, but my broader point is I don't know any straight white men who are voting Dem anymore. There's definitely some truth to this perceived emergence of a gender divide when it comes to young people specifically.

 

I also have a cousin who lives in Ohio who was always super liberal and voted for both Hillary and Biden, but I think she took the red pill during Covid and now she complains about both vaccines and woke. Still, I know she's super pro choice, so she's the clearest example of those white suburban women swing voters that the Dems will depend on.  

[LIT]

[Sannie]

26 minutes ago, Relampago. said:

The polls have underestimated Dems, sure, but they've never underestimated them against Trump specifically. That's important. Trump is clearly an anomaly of a candidate since we see his cronies and copycats get stomped out, despite having similar approaches to their campaigns. Like you mentioned, that should be hurting his campaign but… it's not? Despite his cronies tanking in polls, he just isn't. People seem to think Trump is a separate entity than the Republican Party as a whole and will gladly split a ticket for him. 

 

Abortion is definitely a winning and important message, I'm just not convinced it's enough yet. And while Dems are always weaker on the economy for people, there are some elections where it does matter and where it doesn't (2020 and 2022 didn't seem to matter as much iirc based on exit polls). Unfortunately it seems 2024 isn't that year.

 

I agree that most people are not even looking at a policy page which makes it all the more unreasonable to not have one imo. Throw some general policies up there with minimal details and I think that would satisfy most. But not having one at all is very easy to target.

 

Also, I hope I'm absolutely wrong! I just want to err on the side of negative like you said, because I don't think I could handle 2016 again.  

I fully get where you're coming from, I'm just trying to make sense of everything when Trump is just not something you can not make sense of.  

 

Let's expect the worst but hope for the best.

 

3 minutes ago, Thuggin said:

I think the one thing people can't underestimate is despite the felony convictions, despite January 6th, despite Project 2025, Trump is more popular than ever. Anecdotally, I don't know anyone who voted for him in 2016 and/or 2020 but won't be voting for him this year. In fact, it's the opposite: I only know people who either didn't vote or voted Biden in 2020 but are voting for Trump this year.

 

Even my brother who I never thought would vote for Trump - he voted for Gary Johnson in 2016, supported Bernie in the 2020 primaries, and ultimately voted for Biden in 2020 - switched and is now supporting Trump. He lives in New York City now though so his vote doesn't matter anyway, but my broader point is I don't know any straight white men who are voting Dem anymore. There's definitely some truth to this perceived emergence of a gender divide when it comes to young people specifically.

 

I also have a cousin who lives in Ohio who was always super liberal and voted for both Hillary and Biden, but I think she took the red pill during Covid and now she complains about both vaccines and woke. Still, I know she's super pro choice, so she's the clearest example of those white suburban women swing voters that the Dems will depend on.  

Among his base. That's the key here. All data, more than any other datapoint, shows that Trump has a ceiling and just cannot get past it. He cannot win with his base alone so if Kamala just keeps kicking butt and campaigning, she *should* be able to pull in just the few extra thousand votes she needs in the key states.

[FameFatale]

 

[GhostBox]

I think Harris wins very close races in Wisconsin, Michigan, and pulls out a squeaker in NC. I think she loses GA by a couple points.

 

i just really don't know atm how PA, AZ, and NV votes 💀

[dabunique]

 

[Sannie]

2 minutes ago, dabunique said:

 

The amount of cognitive dissonance it would require to be vote to protect abortion and then for the man who wants to ban it is wild. 

[dabunique]

1 minute ago, Sannie said:

The amount of cognitive dissonance it would require to be vote to protect abortion and then for the man who wants to ban it is wild. 

dats what has me so confused

 

how is it so close in those states (including my Florida) and da abortion passage is over 70%

 

  

[KylieistBoi]

16 minutes ago, dabunique said:

 

Harris will win these two easily. Any state with abortion on the ballot will go to her. 

[Lil Mistee]

1 minute ago, KylieistBoi said:

Harris will win these two easily. Any state with abortion on the ballot will go to her. 

Say that to floriduh

[dabunique]

5 minutes ago, KylieistBoi said:

Harris will win these two easily. Any state with abortion on the ballot will go to her. 

please i'm delusional about my Florida already LOL

[Armani?]

38 minutes ago, GhostBox said:

I think Harris wins very close races in Wisconsin, Michigan, and pulls out a squeaker in NC. I think she loses GA by a couple points.

 

i just really don't know atm how PA, AZ, and NV votes 💀

Not seeing how she wins North Carolina but loses Georgia

[Gottasadae]

2 hours ago, Sannie said:

There is no data to suggest this. Kamala is not the clear fave to win and doesn't have everyone predicting her to win in a landslide.

 

Kamala has one huge weakness - many folks don't take her serious and they see Trump more reliable choice (as funny as it may sound), so it's not a time to underestimate Trump. Kamala needs badly to make clown of him and destroy his ego during debates, this her chance to gain votes, especially undecided  

[tiejc]

[FameFatale]

 

[FameFatale]

 

[Sannie]

11 minutes ago, Gottasadae said:

Kamala has one huge weakness - many folks don't take her serious and they see Trump more reliable choice (as funny as it may sound), so it's not a time to underestimate Trump. Kamala needs badly to make clown of him and destroy his ego during debates, this her chance to gain votes, especially undecided  

It's wild to me that anyone would take Trump more seriously than any other person, but sexism and racism are alive and well.  

[Relampago.]

I really think you guys are overestimating the abortion vote helping Kamala where it's on the ballot. 

 

I think many people will be happy to vote pro-abortion and think: "Great! We got our reproductive rights back, now let's fill in that Trump bubble and get our economy right back on track!" I'm sure that's exactly what's going on in states like Florida, and I'm guessing that's what's going to happen in places like NV and AZ.

 

I'm really not trying to bring doomer energy because SO much can change the race from now to November, but the data is showing us very different stories than what we're predicting here. At least in regards to this.

[Gottasadae]

9 minutes ago, Sannie said:

It's wild to me that anyone would take Trump more seriously than any other person, but sexism and racism are alive and well.  

It's America 

 

[dabunique]