Relampago. Posted August 29 Posted August 29 I'm gonna be honest, I don't think Kamala is going to win anymore. At least right now. She needs to make big moves that I don't think she's capable of making to snag the election. We'll see after the debate and interview tonight, but I have a feeling that it will not move the needle. Trump is just absurdly hard to break, his supporters are unmovable unlike Kamala's. I see her losing all of PA, WI, AZ, NC, NV and GA. 1
DR0GO Posted August 29 Posted August 29 30 minutes ago, tiejc said: Kamala really wants to turn out northern Virginia and we've been getting many TV and digital ads here and none from Trump. Good to see they're not sleeping. They should do a rally here though. I'm very happy to hear this.
GhostBox Posted August 29 Posted August 29 1 minute ago, Relampago. said: I'm gonna be honest, I don't think Kamala is going to win anymore. At least right now. She needs to make big moves that I don't think she's capable of making to snag the election. We'll see after the debate and interview tonight, but I have a feeling that it will not move the needle. Trump is just absurdly hard to break, his supporters are unmovable unlike Kamala's. I see her losing all of PA, WI, AZ, NC, NV and GA. This is only because of PA polling atm. He even says her average actually increased but her chances fell because of PA. Y
Armani? Posted August 29 Posted August 29 2 minutes ago, Relampago. said: I'm gonna be honest, I don't think Kamala is going to win anymore. At least right now. She needs to make big moves that I don't think she's capable of making to snag the election. We'll see after the debate and interview tonight, but I have a feeling that it will not move the needle. Trump is just absurdly hard to break, his supporters are unmovable unlike Kamala's. I see her losing all of PA, WI, AZ, NC, NV and GA. In that scenario hopefully Trump still loses the House 1
Blade Posted August 29 Posted August 29 4 minutes ago, Relampago. said: I'm gonna be honest, I don't think Kamala is going to win anymore. At least right now. She needs to make big moves that I don't think she's capable of making to snag the election. We'll see after the debate and interview tonight, but I have a feeling that it will not move the needle. Trump is just absurdly hard to break, his supporters are unmovable unlike Kamala's. I see her losing all of PA, WI, AZ, NC, NV and GA. Now sis, this is a bit of an overreaction to Nate Silver's model overcorrecting Kamala's convention bounce. Instead of keeping her chances steady during the bounce, the model is aggressively (Silver's own words the other day was aggressive to describe the model) lowering her chances as if a huge convention bounce was expected. 3 1
Relampago. Posted August 29 Posted August 29 Just now, GhostBox said: This is only because of PA polling atm. He even says her average actually increased but her chances fell because of PA. Y I'm just getting the feeling that these polls are, yet again, underestimating Trump. Even outside of PA, but in most swing states. Also, I'm sorry but Kamala is relying TOO heavily on abolition to carry the campaign. It's a very important issue, but not the only, or the main thing, that people are concerned about. She needs to quickly start making inroads with people on the economy but I do not think she will come up with a compelling enough argument for herself that will change the election results. People are far too skeptical already and STILL having no policy page is not helping.
GhostBox Posted August 29 Posted August 29 1 minute ago, Blade said: Now sis, this is a bit of an overreaction to Nate Silver's model overcorrecting Kamala's convention bounce. Instead of keeping her chances steady during the bounce, the model is aggressively (Silver's own words the other day was aggressive to describe the model) lowering her chances as if a huge convention bounce was expected. Did he do this when it was the RNC too? Seems a lil weird to just do that for Harris 💀
Blade Posted August 29 Posted August 29 1 minute ago, GhostBox said: Did he do this when it was the RNC too? Seems a lil weird to just do that for Harris 💀 The RNC was when Biden was still in. Biden's chances improved iirc but were still low considering Trump had the assassination and convention bounce.
Sannie Posted August 29 Posted August 29 1 hour ago, dabunique said: Why do they keep using music without clearing it first? 7 minutes ago, Relampago. said: I'm gonna be honest, I don't think Kamala is going to win anymore. At least right now. She needs to make big moves that I don't think she's capable of making to snag the election. We'll see after the debate and interview tonight, but I have a feeling that it will not move the needle. Trump is just absurdly hard to break, his supporters are unmovable unlike Kamala's. I see her losing all of PA, WI, AZ, NC, NV and GA. Now sis... what is this overreaction lol? Nothing has fundamentally changed and her averages overall have barely moved. This is all an correction/overcorrection by Nate.
Relampago. Posted August 29 Posted August 29 1 minute ago, Blade said: Now sis, this is a bit of an overreaction to Nate Silver's model overcorrecting Kamala's convention bounce. Instead of keeping her chances steady during the bounce, the model is aggressively (Silver's own words the other day was aggressive to describe the model) lowering her chances as if a huge convention bounce was expected. Honestly, his model was mostly separate from my post. People are just fully convinced the economy is in the gutter and see Harris as part of the problem. Whether these two things are true or not is besides the point, because it's the popular belief. Unless she's able to strongly combat this argument, I don't see her building the coalition she needs to win. I'll caveat all this with saying I'm taking a very pessimistic approach to this, but I also wouldn't be shocked if this ended up being the thing that tanks her campaign.
Armani? Posted August 29 Posted August 29 5 minutes ago, Relampago. said: STILL having no policy page is not helping. Yeah, I don't understand this at this point. It's easy to attack
ClashAndBurn Posted August 29 Posted August 29 4 minutes ago, Relampago. said: I'm just getting the feeling that these polls are, yet again, underestimating Trump. Even outside of PA, but in most swing states. Also, I'm sorry but Kamala is relying TOO heavily on abolition to carry the campaign. It's a very important issue, but not the only, or the main thing, that people are concerned about. She needs to quickly start making inroads with people on the economy but I do not think she will come up with a compelling enough argument for herself that will change the election results. People are far too skeptical already and STILL having no policy page is not helping. Abortion was genuinely the only thing Democrats ever had. And not because they have a plan to get abortion rights back (because they don't and there is no path to ever achieving that) but to stop more rights from being taken away from more states. Which, realistically, can only ever be a temporary measure. The Democrats can't possibly coast by on nothing but abortion and expect to keep Republicans out of a trifecta forever (but that won't stop them from trying) Abortion being the Democrats' only strategy was a lot less credible when Joe Biden was on the ticket. As a devout Catholic, he's personally anti-abortion, but he goes along with it because it's the party line issue. Essentially a litmus test. In fact, he had to be bullied into backing down from supporting the Hyde Amendment as recently as five years ago. 1
Sannie Posted August 29 Posted August 29 14 minutes ago, Relampago. said: I'm just getting the feeling that these polls are, yet again, underestimating Trump. Even outside of PA, but in most swing states. Also, I'm sorry but Kamala is relying TOO heavily on abolition to carry the campaign. It's a very important issue, but not the only, or the main thing, that people are concerned about. She needs to quickly start making inroads with people on the economy but I do not think she will come up with a compelling enough argument for herself that will change the election results. People are far too skeptical already and STILL having no policy page is not helping. The polls in the past have also underestimated Dems so I'm not sure why that's always ignored in favor of "polls underestimating Trump". This time around, Trump has to contend with having universally hated whack-jobs on the ticket with him. The Republican party scares people and those people know Trump = those Republicans. I get the pessimism and would argue it's better to be on the scared side more than the positive side, but a lot of your concerns don't seem to be showing in the data? For example, the economy is always a weak spot for Dems. The data does show Kamala eating away at a small percentage of Trump's lead in this aspect, but she will never realistically gain a lot of ground there. However, that hasn't stopped Dems from winning. Abortion has been a winning message since Roe was overturned and there's no such thing as "relying too heavily" on something that is effectively a civil rights issue for a large voting bloc in this country. It just works. Also, I don't think the majority of voters are visiting the websites and care if there's a policy page. She just needs to hammer it in with online and TV messaging.
Redstreak Posted August 29 Posted August 29 (edited) Yeah I think people here can sometimes forget how much more invested they are in politics vs the average person. Most people aren't gonna go to her website let alone check the policy page. I was talking to someone a few years younger than me that literally had *no* idea that a month ago someone tried to shoot Trump 💀 like there are a lot of people that just don't pay attention until right before voting Edited August 29 by Redstreak 1
Armani? Posted August 29 Posted August 29 5 minutes ago, Redstreak said: Yeah I think people here can sometimes forget how much more invested they are in politics vs the average person. Most people aren't gonna go to her website let alone check the policy page. I was talking to someone a few years younger than me that literally had *no* idea that a month ago someone tried to shoot Trump 💀 like there are a lot of people that just don't pay attention until right before voting Trump can still attack Kamala for having no policies on her page in the debate 2
FameFatale Posted August 29 Posted August 29 2 minutes ago, Armani? said: Trump can still attack Kamala for having no policies on her page in the debate And he made his own website bashing her because of this. I wouldn't be shocked if he calls out the website at the debate. But yeah, they really need policy on the website STAT! 8
Sannie Posted August 29 Posted August 29 (edited) 15 minutes ago, Blankspace2010 said: Trump is gonna win in a 2016 style upset. There is no data to suggest this. Kamala is not the clear fave to win and doesn't have everyone predicting her to win in a landslide. 14 minutes ago, Redstreak said: Yeah I think people here can sometimes forget how much more invested they are in politics vs the average person. Most people aren't gonna go to her website let alone check the policy page. I was talking to someone a few years younger than me that literally had *no* idea that a month ago someone tried to shoot Trump 💀 like there are a lot of people that just don't pay attention until right before voting I was talking to this older lady at work the other day and she was like, "I really don't like Trump, but I don't like Biden either" and she had no idea Biden had dropped out. To live in such ignorance bliss is a privilege. 8 minutes ago, Armani? said: Trump can still attack Kamala for having no policies on her page in the debate I have faith her team will predict this. All she has to do is name her policies, specifically ones that are popular that Trump opposes, like abortion rights. It would be very easy to trip Trump up talking about abortion. Although I don't think it works on the public, they still need to put up a page to shut people up. I've heard a couple people say they might not have a page because doing so is just going to give pundits another reason to criticize her because they'll just go through the policies and make stuff up. They're currently doing it with her capital gains proposal. Edited August 29 by Sannie
Vroom Vroom Posted August 29 Posted August 29 47 minutes ago, Relampago. said: Trump is just absurdly hard to break, his supporters are unmovable unlike Kamala's. I see her losing all of PA, WI, AZ, NC, NV and GA. His unvaccinated supporters that didn't survive Covid in 2021 will not be voting But seriously, I am feeling optimistic about her chances of winning. 2 months ago people were predicting that this election was going to be low turn out like 2016. Now it might have a similar turnout to 2020 just because Kamala entered the race. Trump's ceiling is 46-47% The only strong 3rd party candidate dropped out. Kamala is going to hit 50% of the popular vote. She obviously can still lose. But she has a lot of things going for her 4
Redstreak Posted August 29 Posted August 29 19 minutes ago, Armani? said: Trump can still attack Kamala for having no policies on her page in the debate I mean he can, I just don't think it's all that effective right now 1
Sannie Posted August 29 Posted August 29 2 minutes ago, Vroom Vroom said: His unvaccinated supporters that didn't survive Covid in 2021 will not be voting But seriously, I am feeling optimistic about her chances of winning. 2 months ago people were predicting that this election was going to be low turn out like 2016. Now it might have a similar turnout to 2020 just because Kamala entered the race. Trump's ceiling is 46-47% The only strong 3rd party candidate dropped out. Kamala is going to hit 50% of the popular vote. She obviously can still lose. But she has a lot of things going for her This is the best way to view it. It's a toss up; don't get cocky or overconfident. 1
Armani? Posted August 29 Posted August 29 4 minutes ago, Redstreak said: I mean he can, I just don't think it's all that effective right now It makes her look unserious. And with a tight race we don't need to lay out targets for ourselves for talking points 1
Redstreak Posted August 29 Posted August 29 4 minutes ago, Armani? said: It makes her look unserious. And with a tight race we don't need to lay out targets for ourselves for talking points I just can't imagine a serious person thinking Trump has a point on someone else's lack of policy. I happen to agree that more details just mean more unfair scrutiny. How many articles have we seen of "inflation is lowering, here's why that's bad for Kamala" 3
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