XDNA Posted August 26 Posted August 26 48 minutes ago, Miles. said: Genuine question, and I'm not sure if this is the right thread for it, so feel free to point me somewhere else, but does anyone have any ideas on how to un-redpill certain family members? My family is religious, but they are very moderate and have always been anti-Trump. They were Obama supporters all through his presidency, hated Hillary and Trump in 2016, and supported Biden in 2020 but grew to hate him and see him as a joke. I thought they would be excited about Harris replacing Biden, but they are saying she's an idiot who has never done anything, and are now saying they "would have a very tough time choosing between Trump and Harris." I was shocked, and pushed back by trying to explain a few of the good things Harris has done, and reminded them of how NOT Christian Trump is. (This is a huge deal for them.) These are intelligent, mostly kind people who have NEVER exhibited any pro-Trump sentiment before. I genuinely think they are getting redpilled by blatant misinformation online, especially on YouTube. One of them mentioned some story about Joe Rogan suing MSNBC for $30M for lying about him, and when I looked it up, it wasn't even true. I think they're seeing a lot of similar stuff that's moving them further to the right, and it really upsets me because these are people that I love and respect. So, if anyone has some simple, effective talking points that I could use to gently and slowly remedy this, I'd love to hear. PS: They are anti-choice (except in extreme cases) because of the bible, so that argument doesn't work at all. I would ask them what 3/5 issues they care the most about and focus on that. Most people only care about a few issues, and if you can explain how Harris/Trump differ on that with evidence, you can help them get better info. Also, Harris is from the centrist wing of the Democratic party, so they may like to know that. Since they're religious, I also recommend showing them some speeches or talks with Governor Beshear. He does a very good job of linking Christianity with progressive and democratic stances. 3
Armani? Posted August 26 Posted August 26 The fb ad spending https://www.facebook.com/share/NL4V3G23aYpEZEAJ/?mibextid=oFDknk
Sannie Posted August 26 Posted August 26 1 hour ago, Miles. said: Genuine question, and I'm not sure if this is the right thread for it, so feel free to point me somewhere else, but does anyone have any ideas on how to un-redpill certain family members? My family is religious, but they are very moderate and have always been anti-Trump. They were Obama supporters all through his presidency, hated Hillary and Trump in 2016, and supported Biden in 2020 but grew to hate him and see him as a joke. I thought they would be excited about Harris replacing Biden, but they are saying she's an idiot who has never done anything, and are now saying they "would have a very tough time choosing between Trump and Harris." I was shocked, and pushed back by trying to explain a few of the good things Harris has done, and reminded them of how NOT Christian Trump is. (This is a huge deal for them.) These are intelligent, mostly kind people who have NEVER exhibited any pro-Trump sentiment before. I genuinely think they are getting redpilled by blatant misinformation online, especially on YouTube. One of them mentioned some story about Joe Rogan suing MSNBC for $30M for lying about him, and when I looked it up, it wasn't even true. I think they're seeing a lot of similar stuff that's moving them further to the right, and it really upsets me because these are people that I love and respect. So, if anyone has some simple, effective talking points that I could use to gently and slowly remedy this, I'd love to hear. PS: They are anti-choice (except in extreme cases) because of the bible, so that argument doesn't work at all. Have your parents ever exhibited any kind of racism? It's wild to go from "anti-Trump" to "Harris and Trump are the same".
WildAmerican Posted August 26 Posted August 26 6 minutes ago, FameFatale said: the task force in PA today 11
Sannie Posted August 26 Posted August 26 27 minutes ago, FameFatale said: "Trump assassination attempt task force"
ATRL Moderator Bloo Posted August 26 ATRL Moderator Posted August 26 3 hours ago, FameFatale said: We knew it was coming I wonder what cabinet position she is vying for. Anyway, what a clown. She was transparently fake back in 2016 when she pretended to be a staunch progressive with her eyebrow-raising record. 4
thesegayz Posted August 26 Posted August 26 41 minutes ago, Bloo said: I wonder what cabinet position she is vying for. Anyway, what a clown. She was transparently fake back in 2016 when she pretended to be a staunch progressive with her eyebrow-raising record. I hope Trump serves her with Ambassador to Tahiti
Communion Posted August 26 Posted August 26 What a poorly framed lawsuit. It basically argued no one else but Republicans + Democrats had a right on the ballot and would have kicked the Greens + 2 other parties off. Genuinely a waste of financial resources by the state Democratic Party when such money could have easily gone to canvasing in such a swing state. 2 2
Wonderland Posted August 26 Posted August 26 Does anyone have any insights as to why Nevada is seemingly one of the harder swing states for Democrats to win this election? Is it weakening amongst Latino voters? Red state migration? Covid backlash? I remember that polling the state is a disaster; it just seems odd that it has ended up blue in every presidential race since 2004 but seems to be shaping up as one of the toughest for Democrats to win in 2024
Relampago. Posted August 26 Posted August 26 11 minutes ago, Wonderland said: Does anyone have any insights as to why Nevada is seemingly one of the harder swing states for Democrats to win this election? Is it weakening amongst Latino voters? Red state migration? Covid backlash? I remember that polling the state is a disaster; it just seems odd that it has ended up blue in every presidential race since 2004 but seems to be shaping up as one of the toughest for Democrats to win in 2024 IIRC, it just seems like Harris is struggling with Latino men in NV and Latina women aren't shoring up the numbers enough. That doesn't seem to be a demographic problem outside of the state though, seeing how Kamala is starting to pull away in states like AZ. I think NV will come home to Kamala in the end, but I find it weird too. @Communion had a good write up on comparing Latino voters in 2020 with 2024 polls. I can't find the post but it was pretty telling where Kamala is bleeding support after seeing those numbers.
shelven Posted August 27 Posted August 27 Nevada is basically the only swing state where Biden underperformed Clinton. It's been slowly but surely trending rightward the last few presidential cycles, so I don't think the challenges Harris is having there are unique to her. It's also possible that the polls are underestimating her. They slightly underestimated Clinton and they heavily underestimated Cortez-Masto in the 2022 Senate race. And while they overestimated Biden in 2020, they did so by significantly less than most of the other swing states. 1
ultraviolence.xx Posted August 27 Posted August 27 i'm still not over the "there's a surprise guest!" GAG to get people tuned in. ohh they ate that one up. 10
Communion Posted August 27 Posted August 27 1 hour ago, Relampago. said: IIRC, it just seems like Harris is struggling with Latino men in NV and Latina women aren't shoring up the numbers enough. That doesn't seem to be a demographic problem outside of the state though, seeing how Kamala is starting to pull away in states like AZ. I think NV will come home to Kamala in the end, but I find it weird too. @Communion had a good write up on comparing Latino voters in 2020 with 2024 polls. I can't find the post but it was pretty telling where Kamala is bleeding support after seeing those numbers. 1 hour ago, Wonderland said: Does anyone have any insights as to why Nevada is seemingly one of the harder swing states for Democrats to win this election? Is it weakening amongst Latino voters? Red state migration? Covid backlash? I remember that polling the state is a disaster; it just seems odd that it has ended up blue in every presidential race since 2004 but seems to be shaping up as one of the toughest for Democrats to win in 2024 Basically on Biden 2020 vs Harris 2024 for Nevada: On 8/17/2024 at 3:31 PM, Communion said: For comparison against Biden's 2020 NYT exit polls in Nevada: Demographic: Biden vs Harris (Difference) White Voters (62% of Voters): -11 vs -14 (-3) Hispanic Voters (19% of Voters): +23 vs 4 (-19) Biden's 2020 NYT exit polls in AZ: Demographic: Biden vs Harris (Difference) White Voters (74% of Voters): 0 vs 0 (=) Hispanic Voters (19% of Voters): +30 vs ? (?) [He won 63% of the Hispanic vote per NYT) So she's doing both slightly worse or the same than Biden with white voters and noticeably worse with Hispanic voters, especially in Nevada. This is maybe the issue with Hispanic voters not being a monolith. We know Hispanic voters in places like Arizona are much more conservative than those in Nevada / Hispanic voters in Nevada are much more progressive than those in Arizona, etc. Hispanic voters seem most impacted by gender polarization. Per CNN's 2020 exit polls: Biden won Nevada with +6 Latino Men but +47 Latino Women. Biden won Arizona with +18 Latino Men and +31 Latino Women. On 8/25/2024 at 12:13 AM, Communion said: 2020 18-29 Biden +28 2024 18-29: Harris +22 (-6) 2020 30-44: Biden +17 2024 30-44: Harris +9 (-8) 2020 45-64: Trump +11 2024 45-64: Trump +7 (+4) 2020 65+: Trump +1 2024 65+: Trump +7 (-6) On 8/17/2024 at 6:02 PM, Communion said: Cause I got curious, it's probably sadly Hispanic men shifting largely to GOP and Hispanic women not meeting the margins they need to. If comparing the NYT 2020 Exit Polls for Nevada vs the NYT/Sienna recent cross-tabs: 2020 Non-White, College Degree: Biden +25 2024 Non-White, College Degree: Harris +43 (+18) 2020 City Voters: Biden +8 2024 City Voters: Harris +6 (-2) 2020 White: Trump +9 2024 White: Trump +12 (-3) 2020 White, No College Degree: Trump +17 2024 White, No College Degree: Trump +20 (-3) 2020 Total: Biden +2.4 2024 Total: Trump +1 (-3.4) 2020 White, College Degree: Biden +5 2024 White, College Degree: Even (-5) 2020 Clark County: Biden +10 2020 Clark County: Harris +3 (-7) 2020 Women: Biden +14 2024 Women: Harris +7 (-7 2020 Men: Trump +2 2024 Men: Trump +11 (-9) 2020 No College Degree: Biden +3 2024 No College Degree: Trump +9 (-12) 2020 Washoe County: Biden +14 2024 Washoe County: Even (-14) 2020 Independents: Biden +9 2024 Hispanic: Trump +6 (-15) 2020 Hispanic: Biden +23 2024 Hispanic: Harris +4 (-19) 2020 Non-White, No College Degree: Biden +30 2024 Non-White, No College Degree: Harris +8 (-22) 2020 Suburb Voters: Biden +26 2024 Suburb Voters: Harris +2 (-24) Basically something is happening with non-white voters without college degrees. Due to education trends and polarization, this likely means something is happening with Dems and Hispanic men within the state.
midnightdawn Posted August 27 Posted August 27 15 minutes ago, ultraviolence.xx said: i'm still not over the "there's a surprise guest!" GAG to get people tuned in. ohh they ate that one up. One of the political podcasts I listen to were discussing it and one of the hosts said "My wife told me Beyonce was going to be there. And someone else tells me it's Taylor. And I'm thinking like don't overshadow her. And so Pink is perfect!". 6
shelven Posted August 27 Posted August 27 I know 538 has had its ups and downs in terms of reliability and usefulness, but it's been sad to watch ABC increasingly hide them and water them down into near non-existence. They were probably the best in the business at explaining how to interpret uncertainty and probability, and their models always had a lot of really helpful detail within them. The fact that their new team probably spent months building a new model from scratch after ABC fired Nate Silver, had to then basically re-build it when Biden dropped out, only for it to now be pretty much completely hidden on their website makes me feel so bad for them
Communion Posted August 27 Posted August 27 13 minutes ago, shelven said: Nevada is basically the only swing state where Biden underperformed Clinton. It's been slowly but surely trending rightward the last few presidential cycles, so I don't think the challenges Harris is having there are unique to her. It's also possible that the polls are underestimating her. They slightly underestimated Clinton and they heavily underestimated Cortez-Masto in the 2022 Senate race. And while they overestimated Biden in 2020, they did so by significantly less than most of the other swing states. I think the main note is that how much Biden was over-estimated was more than how the state level Dems were over-estimated. On 8/18/2024 at 7:28 PM, Communion said: Polling out of Nevada is odd as pollsters seem to over-estimate state-level Republicans while having over-estimated Biden nationally. Biden 2020 Average, 538: +5.3 (-2.9) Biden 2020 Average, RCP: +2.4 (=) Biden 2020 Result: +2.4 2022 Governor Average, 538: Lombardo (R): +1.9 (-0.4) 2022 Governor Average, RCP: Lombardo (R): +2.8 (-1.3) 2022 Governor Result: Lombardo (R): +1.5 2022 Senate Average, 538: Laxalt (R): +1.4 (-2.1) 2022 Senate Average, RCP: Laxalt (R): +3.4 (-4.1) 2022 Governor Result: Cortez-Mastro (D): +0.7 The main one that sticks out is RCP's average for Laxalt, but if you look at the actual trend, there was an odd onslaught of polls for Laxalt's favor in the last 2 weeks. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2022/nevada/laxalt-vs-cortezmasto 10/25: Laxalt +0.3 11/02:: Laxalt +1.9 11/08: Laxalt +3.4 The last 3 days of the race were the only time that RCP had Laxalt's polling as big as they did that it'd be statistically greater of an error than 538's was. There's also the odd thing that RCP's aggregated ended up nailing the Nevada results vs 538's 3-point error. To compare the difference: 2024, Biden vs Trump, July 20th (NV), 538: Trump +5.8 2024, Biden vs Trump, July 20th (NV), RCP: Trump +5.1 2024, Harris vs Trump, August 19th (NV), 538: Harris +0,2 2024, Harris vs Trump, August 19th (NV), RCP: Trump +1.4
Bewitched Posted August 27 Posted August 27 13 hours ago, FameFatale said: She said keep them on so I can fact check his ass This is so ******* funny to me like Trump has literally hated mic cut offs and now he wants it?! 1
Armani? Posted August 27 Posted August 27 Still thinking it will be a slight decline for Dems but there's still time I guess.
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