tiejc Posted August 24 Posted August 24 Nate Silver's model was updated reflecting the impact of RFK Jr dropping out https://www.natesilver.net/p/we-removed-rfk-jr-from-our-model 4
ultraviolence.xx Posted August 24 Posted August 24 (edited) 25 minutes ago, tiejc said: Nate Silver's model was updated reflecting the impact of RFK Jr dropping out https://www.natesilver.net/p/we-removed-rfk-jr-from-our-model and harris's odds of winning went from 53.001% to 53.000%. his impact!! Edited August 24 by ultraviolence.xx 3
One Rude Boy Posted August 24 Posted August 24 1 hour ago, GhostBox said: oop 😂 body slam her??? psychotic
FLAallday Posted August 25 Posted August 25 9 minutes ago, One Rude Boy said: body slam her??? psychotic Like???? The snl writers have to do literally NOTHING but casting 1
ClashAndBurn Posted August 25 Posted August 25 3 hours ago, Blade said: Kamala's speech was terrible and hawkish. But what the hell is the difference between this sentiment and liberals saying poor people in red states deserve to suffer because they vote red. ------------------------------------ Btw this next statement isn't directed at you but this thread has been derailed in the past few pages. I think discussion about the morals and or strategy related to voting is healthy but maybe we need a separate thread for those discussions because trying to get news/meaningful discussion about the state of the race on this thread has become increasingly difficult. My comment wasn't even directed at everyone here, but the usual assholes that have done nothing but gloat over the DNC telling this woman to **** off: At this point, all I'm saying is that if Trump does win, then some of the people in here, namely the ones who have been doing as much damage to the coalition-building that has even been attempted in here with their smug attitudes and condescension, are the ones who deserve to be hurt by his administration as much as possible. That is, the ones here saying "Well DUH! You leftists shouldn't be catered to, because all you want is the death of all Jews in Israel." 2
Sannie Posted August 25 Posted August 25 8 minutes ago, FameFatale said: These numbers are starting to get out of hand.
toxicgenie Posted August 25 Posted August 25 5 hours ago, Relampago. said: I'm kind of cackling at the idea of people not reading the ballot and just giving up and either not voting or just tossing a vote at Kamala because she's listed first Maybe the literacy rates dropping made some points. CLOSE the schools in Michigan and NC! Hey! some people just want the sticker so they can post a selfie. 1
Bears01 Posted August 25 Posted August 25 38 minutes ago, ClashAndBurn said: My comment wasn't even directed at everyone here, but the usual assholes that have done nothing but gloat over the DNC telling this woman to **** off: At this point, all I'm saying is that if Trump does win, then some of the people in here, namely the ones who have been doing as much damage to the coalition-building that has even been attempted in here with their smug attitudes and condescension, are the ones who deserve to be hurt by his administration as much as possible. That is, the ones here saying "Well DUH! You leftists shouldn't be catered to, because all you want is the death of all Jews in Israel." Ignore the ones antagonizing you king, your voice and your views deserve to be heard 1
toxicgenie Posted August 25 Posted August 25 17 hours ago, Relampago. said: We were told this with Joe Biden too, then we lost Roe v Wade and student loan forgiveness and marijuana legalization and so on and so forth, and that was met with: well, we need to VOTE! Rinse, repeat every 2-4 years. I'm tired, toxicgenie. When will we see meaningful progress? How many times must I hold my nose when all I want is for my fellow human beings to be treated as human beings? I used to wonder why my parents didn't bother to vote until 2008, but every election it makes more and more sense. Biden moved to the left on student loans. The original plan was only to forgive a certain amount, but it kept increasing and more borrowers became qualified. This is despite it being a controversial topic that faced public pushback. Roe v Wade was overturned because of the SC judges Trump appointed. Biden did what he could with executive powers to allow abortions. Not sure I'm following how this is the Dems fault. The Biden admin also passed a lot of pro-consumer and anti-child poverty policies that are often overlooked. But yeah the way the US governance system is set up makes change very slow, it was designed that way. So yeah, it will take time and consistent wins to see change, especially with a conservative Supreme Court willing to undo progress.
Communion Posted August 25 Posted August 25 (edited) I know y'all hate her but these are some Stand Your Ground style shenanigans kjnkjn, I screamed. A messy ***** who lives for drama. The end of the first video? Chills Just watch and get what I mean dddd. Shocking too cause the Green Party has never shown a kind of like.. modern understanding of online optics in 2016+2020. They've always been very peace-love-beatnik. Antiquated even, like a relic from a previous time. It's like they finally hired someone born after 1982. Her tweeting these out after trending on Twitter today because Newsweek *re-reads* directly suggested and asked her if she would consider dropping out of the race to help Kamala? Maybe just ignore 3rd party instead of using a relevant platform to tell them that they should drop out. Edited August 25 by Communion 1
Wonderland Posted August 25 Posted August 25 Biden was up by +8.4 in the Fivethirtyeight model before the 2020 election. His true lead turned out to be just over half that (+4.5). While the map will be different this time around, there's a long way for Harris to go. 4
Harrier Posted August 25 Posted August 25 33 minutes ago, Wonderland said: Biden was up by +8.4 in the Fivethirtyeight model before the 2020 election. His true lead turned out to be just over half that (+4.5). While the map will be different this time around, there's a long way for Harris to go. Polling innacuracy is unpredictable and changes every cycle. It is of course better for her to be even further ahead, but there is no guarantee that polling will be off by as much as it was in 2020. Hell, in 2012, polling overestimated Romney by nearly 3 points, and in 2018 and 2022, it underestimated Democrats. Polling in 2016 wasn't horrendous (off by about 1.5 in Trumps favor). In 2020 it was quite bad (off by 4+). Since those results, pollsters have tried to account for their errors and hopefully they have succeeded this time around. Or maybe the polling error will be even worse, wildly overfavoring Harris, who knows. My overall point here is it isn't right to make a statements like 'she needs to be up by 6 points to win', because we just don't know that. Just the higher the better, ig 9 1
Blade Posted August 25 Posted August 25 The polling error in 2016's Rust Belt was due to the lack of weighing education for white voters. I don't remember a specific reason being attributed to 2020 being off in the Rust Belt but yes, error can go either way. N=2 elections showing an overall error in Trump's favor is not enough to show a trend.
Mike91 Posted August 25 Posted August 25 45 minutes ago, Wonderland said: Biden was up by +8.4 in the Fivethirtyeight model before the 2020 election. His true lead turned out to be just over half that (+4.5). While the map will be different this time around, there's a long way for Harris to go. 2020 also had record turnout, which wasn't accounted for in polling. Just like how polling for 2022 didn't account for younger voters.
Lil Mistee Posted August 25 Posted August 25 2 minutes ago, Mike91 said: 2020 also had record turnout, which wasn't accounted for in polling. Just like how polling for 2022 didn't account for younger voters. Weren't the 2022 polls super accurate?
Communion Posted August 25 Posted August 25 (edited) For reference, per Nate Cohn, most pollsters still don't actually know why 2020's polling was as off as it felt. (The user below found that comforting for Biden's chances, and I would assume Harris's. The main source of contention in 2024 polls now being the young non-white men who are "double haters" and go for Trump, who the user believes polls are exaggerating the existence of, but Harris' Nevada polling feels like it largely aligns with this issue.) Nevada: On 8/17/2024 at 6:02 PM, Communion said: Cause I got curious, it's probably sadly Hispanic men shifting largely to GOP and Hispanic women not meeting the margins they need to. If comparing the NYT 2020 Exit Polls for Nevada vs the NYT/Sienna recent cross-tabs: 2020 Non-White, College Degree: Biden +25 2024 Non-White, College Degree: Harris +43 (+18) 2020 City Voters: Biden +8 2024 City Voters: Harris +6 (-2) 2020 White: Trump +9 2024 White: Trump +12 (-3) 2020 White, No College Degree: Trump +17 2024 White, No College Degree: Trump +20 (-3) 2020 Total: Biden +2.4 2024 Total: Trump +1 (-3.4) 2020 White, College Degree: Biden +5 2024 White, College Degree: Even (-5) 2020 Clark County: Biden +10 2020 Clark County: Harris +3 (-7) 2020 Women: Biden +14 2024 Women: Harris +7 (-7 2020 Men: Trump +2 2024 Men: Trump +11 (-9) 2020 No College Degree: Biden +3 2024 No College Degree: Trump +9 (-12) 2020 Washoe County: Biden +14 2024 Washoe County: Even (-14) 2020 Independents: Biden +9 2024 Hispanic: Trump +6 (-15) 2020 Hispanic: Biden +23 2024 Hispanic: Harris +4 (-19) 2020 Non-White, No College Degree: Biden +30 2024 Non-White, No College Degree: Harris +8 (-22) 2020 Suburb Voters: Biden +26 2024 Suburb Voters: Harris +2 (-24) 2020 18-29 Biden +28 2024 18-29: Harris +22 (-6) 2020 30-44: Biden +17 2024 30-44: Harris +9 (-8) 2020 45-64: Trump +11 2024 45-64: Trump +7 (+4) 2020 65+: Trump +1 2024 65+: Trump +7 (-6) Edited August 25 by Communion
Blade Posted August 25 Posted August 25 8 minutes ago, Communion said: For reference, per Nate Cohn, most pollsters still don't actually know why 2020's polling was as off as it felt. (The user below found that comforting for Biden's chances, and I would assume Harris's. The main source of contention in 2024 polls now being the young non-white men who are "double haters" and go for Trump, who the user believes polls are exaggerating the existence of, but Harris' Nevada polling feels like it largely aligns with this issue.) Nevada: 2020 18-29 Biden +28 2024 18-29: Harris +22 (-6) 2020 30-44: Biden +17 2024 30-44: Harris +9 (-8) 2020 45-64: Trump +11 2024 45-64: Trump +7 (+4) 2020 65+: Trump +1 2024 65+: Trump +7 (-6) That was a great thread. Thanks. It's funny that people feel like polls in 2016 were worse than 2020 just because of the outcome.
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