Bears01 Posted August 21 Posted August 21 4 minutes ago, Vermillion said: Inflation and the economy really is the main reason Biden is so wildly unpopular (along with his age and noticeable decline). It's a miracle it really only affected him and not the party as a whole. 2022 really should have been a 2010 level wipeout, and Trump/the GOP should be running away with this election instead of the absolute tossup it is right now. It shows one of two things: how competent the Democratic Party is, or how incompetent the GOP is, or both 1
Relampago. Posted August 21 Posted August 21 5 minutes ago, dabunique said: i'm delusional but i kno its gonna be a hard fight ... da Republicans stole our state and its time we take our **** back maybe not this year but we will be blue in da future I don't think it's entirely a lost cause, but Dems will have to invest heavily to bring it back to being even a swing state. I was just looking at the 2022 results there, I completely forgot that DeSantis won Miami-Dade Hialeah and Doral's blue votes dropping significantly Being in Arizona, I'm not too familiar with the feelings in those areas, but based on what my Cuban friends from Miami have said— there's hardly any effort to combat the disinformation around socialism/communism and the Democratic Party. That WhatsApp outreach that Kamala's campaign started is honestly a good idea and a good start but they'll need to start dumping money for ad spots to really fight that narrative. But that's not really viable this time around.. It's been such a joy watching AZ go from the state pushing laws like SB1070 and electing Joe Arpaio over and over to potentially having a Democratic trifecta in the state this year. Sending love sis, with people like you in Florida I don't see why it couldn't change again in the future 2
VOSS Posted August 21 Posted August 21 3 minutes ago, Bears01 said: Inflation and the economy really is the main reason Biden is so wildly unpopular (along with his age and noticeable decline). It's a miracle it really only affected him and not the party as a whole. 2022 really should have been a 2010 level wipeout, and Trump/the GOP should be running away with this election instead of the absolute tossup it is right now. It shows one of two things: how competent the Democratic Party is, or how incompetent the GOP is, or both I don't know that the Democrats are particularly competent, the GOP is just so hateful and dysfunctional under Trump that it turns away most anyone not ideologically committed to the party. Assuming Trump loses, I'm very curious to see where they go from here. It would be hard for them to untangle themselves from Trump but after so many losses they'll really have to. 2
dabunique Posted August 21 Posted August 21 4 minutes ago, Relampago. said: I don't think it's entirely a lost cause, but Dems will have to invest heavily to bring it back to being even a swing state. I was just looking at the 2022 results there, I completely forgot that DeSantis won Miami-Dade Hialeah and Doral's blue votes dropping significantly Being in Arizona, I'm not too familiar with the feelings in those areas, but based on what my Cuban friends from Miami have said— there's hardly any effort to combat the disinformation around socialism/communism and the Democratic Party. That WhatsApp outreach that Kamala's campaign started is honestly a good idea and a good start but they'll need to start dumping money for ad spots to really fight that narrative. But that's not really viable this time around.. It's been such a joy watching AZ go from the state pushing laws like SB1070 and electing Joe Arpaio over and over to potentially having a Democratic trifecta in the state this year. Sending love sis, with people like you in Florida I don't see why it couldn't change again in the future Radio Propaganda is huge down here which not only has turned Cubans and Venezuelan deep red but all of Central Americans dat r down here too if i could get someone to shut down Radio Mambi it would be so over for da Republicans here Hialeah is da second biggest Cuban city after Miami and Doral is da epicenter of all Venezuelans here in Miami so dat doesn't shock me Duval and da I-4 corridor have to carry da state to blue this time around 1
Relampago. Posted August 21 Posted August 21 I'm curious as to what is pushing Trump upwards in the betting odds considering the DNC is right now. Maybe just Kamala's weaker polling days the past few days? 1
FameFatale Posted August 21 Posted August 21 Charlie Kirk is already back to his studio in AZ He got ran out the DNC. 5
dman4life Posted August 21 Posted August 21 (edited) With Trump using Tulsi Gabbard for debate prep I hope Kamala is prepared for him to try to collapse her black support as much as possible. It's all but guaranteed he's gonna come at her prosecutor record and frame it as "you locked black men up and I freed them". He already tried it with Biden in 2020. I'd just hate for her to be caught off guard again. Edited August 21 by dman4life 5
Sannie Posted August 21 Posted August 21 44 minutes ago, Relampago. said: I'm curious as to what is pushing Trump upwards in the betting odds considering the DNC is right now. Maybe just Kamala's weaker polling days the past few days? It's a lagging indicator... so yeah. A few days of not even good but semi-decent polling for Trump has people running to make bets. I also full-out wouldn't put it past Trump and his supporters to try and rig this just to make it seem like "he's actually in the lead". 3 hours ago, Vermillion said: Although I think it would be a nice sign of solidarity to let someone from the Uncommitted movement speak, this is the Democratic National Convention and having someone on stage who is not committed to supported the Democrats is a li'l crazy. Support and unity is the entire point of the convention. Plus, their speech would probably have to be watered down/neutered by the showrunners which would just put a damper on their message. Maybe they can have their own Uncommitted National Convention? 3 1
CaptainMusic Posted August 21 Posted August 21 24 minutes ago, dman4life said: With Trump using Tulsi Gabbard for debate prep I hope Kamala is prepared for him to try to collapse her black support as much as possible. It's all but guaranteed he's gonna come at her prosecutor record and frame it as "you locked black men up and I freed them". He already tried it with Biden in 2020. I'd just hate for her to be caught off guard again. I agree, especially with how online her team are. It would be dumb if she gets caught off guard by this again, especially when it's so easy to counter this with Trump's history of racism. 3
CaptainMusic Posted August 21 Posted August 21 21 minutes ago, Sannie said: It's a lagging indicator... so yeah. A few days of not even good but semi-decent polling for Trump has people running to make bets. I also full-out wouldn't put it past Trump and his supporters to try and rig this just to make it seem like "he's actually in the lead". Although I think it would be a nice sign of solidarity to let someone from the Uncommitted movement speak, this is the Democratic National Convention and having someone on stage who is not committed to supported the Democrats is a li'l crazy. Support and unity is the entire point of the convention. Plus, their speech would probably have to be watered down/neutered by the showrunners which would just put a damper on their message. Maybe they can have their own Uncommitted National Convention? I could easily see an uncommitted speaker going off script and dragging Biden/Harris which would be a mess so I understand why they aren't being allowed to speak unfortunately. 2
Sannie Posted August 21 Posted August 21 25 minutes ago, CaptainMusic said: I could easily see an uncommitted speaker going off script and dragging Biden/Harris which would be a mess so I understand why they aren't being allowed to speak unfortunately. Exactly, but people are going to act like it's totally unreasonable. 1 2
Sannie Posted August 21 Posted August 21 Any guesses on how RFK dropping out and endorsing Trump will affect the race? Despite the polls showing RFK taking away from Trump, I'm not yet convinced that means RFK dropping out = his supporters going to him. 2
GhostBox Posted August 21 Posted August 21 18 minutes ago, FameFatale said: Doing what we all knew from the start. He was only in the race to hurt Dems. But now it's clear he hurts Trump more. So he has to drop out and get behind the racist 😂 2
Parachutes Posted August 21 Posted August 21 (edited) This is a super interesting article on voter perceptions of Walz and how messaging on his record resonates in different ways. A main takeaway is that many voters are still unaware of many of his most popular policies (insulin price caps, regulation on junk fees, expanded health care access via MinnesotaCare); for this and other reasons (support for deficit reduction, being a veteran, etc.) he still has room to grow and boost the ticket. Also interesting that they tested how effective different counter arguments to attacks on Walz are, for example: All of the attacks have mostly effective rebuttals, but (predictably) framing can make a big difference Edited August 21 by Parachutes 1 2
Musicmajor Posted August 21 Posted August 21 14 minutes ago, GhostBox said: Doing what we all knew from the start. He was only in the race to hurt Dems. But now it's clear he hurts Trump more. So he has to drop out and get behind the racist 😂 TENS of people will now flock to Trumps base 1
Relampago. Posted August 21 Posted August 21 25 minutes ago, Sannie said: Any guesses on how RFK dropping out and endorsing Trump will affect the race? Despite the polls showing RFK taking away from Trump, I'm not yet convinced that means RFK dropping out = his supporters going to him. I think it'll help Trump's numbers no matter what. Will it be enough to close the gap with Kamala? no, I doubt that, nothing polls have shown with Kennedy in or out of the race indicate that. Nonetheless Trump's numbers will close in a bit on Kamala's although she'll likely see a small bump too, albeit less than Trump's. In such a close race, I don't exactly love that idea but I don't think it's a make or break situation for Harris's campaign either. 1
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