Vroom Vroom Posted July 31 Posted July 31 5 minutes ago, NausAllien said: Is it a done deal? The betting market sure thinks so... Do betting markets have a good track record? Beshear was leading them yesterday
Blade Posted July 31 Posted July 31 Early on the Harris campaign leaked that she was not looking for an electoral boost in the VP. That means that her picking Shapiro, Whitmer, Cooper, and Kelly would be based on their ability to govern alongside Kamala. Not to mention during hyper partisanship the homestate advantage is comically small so the "electoral boost" is more like an "electoral bump" So now we look at how these people can govern alongside Kamala, which in the campaign stage of things is essentially how well they complement each other while campaigning to communicate their message. Harris and Shapiro are 2 people who together give coastal elite Dem. Basically like choosing Newsom but from a swing state. This even with ignoring ALL ideological issues with Shapiro and baggage. They just don't look great together especially when comparing them to how Harris and Walz or Harris and Beshear look together out on the campaign trail. 1
GhostBox Posted July 31 Posted July 31 19 minutes ago, Blade said: Kamala's chances jumped from 38% to 43% Lets go 👏🏼👏🏼 and we still have the convention bump coming 🎉🎉
NausAllien Posted July 31 Posted July 31 7 minutes ago, Vroom Vroom said: Do betting markets have a good track record? Beshear was leading them yesterday Once they pass a certain % of certainty, they do. When "Biden dropping out" got to 70%, he ended up dropping out two or three days later. Previously, all the possible VP picks were at 40%, but now the markets seem pretty confident that she's gonna pick Shapiro.
DR0GO Posted July 31 Posted July 31 If she does pick Shapiro, asides from him helping her win PA and him being a good public speaker, is there anything else he brings to the table? Any other huge positives? Like are we missing something? Beshear/Walz for the win.
Blade Posted July 31 Posted July 31 1 minute ago, DR0GO said: If she does pick Shapiro, asides from him helping her win PA and him being a good public speaker, is there anything else he brings to the table? Any other huge positives? Like are we missing something? Beshear/Walz for the win. "Good public speaker" Have you heard his Obama cadence? 1
Rotunda Posted July 31 Posted July 31 Just now, Blade said: "Good public speaker" Have you heard his Obama cadence? That's good public speaking for the GP
NausAllien Posted July 31 Posted July 31 2 minutes ago, DR0GO said: If she does pick Shapiro, asides from him helping her win PA and him being a good public speaker, is there anything else he brings to the table? Any other huge positives? Like are we missing something? No, and even the things that you mentioned are questionable. Some people find him to be an "Obama impersonator", and she might win PA with him, but lose Michigan. I think he has more negative than positives at this point, so it's not worth picking just to win one state.
DR0GO Posted July 31 Posted July 31 2 minutes ago, Blade said: "Good public speaker" Have you heard his Obama cadence? The bar is so low these days, I'm afraid.
Slamless Posted July 31 Posted July 31 tbh i really don't think Walz has/will ever be a true top contender unfortunately, we lost
Blade Posted July 31 Posted July 31 2 minutes ago, Slamless said: tbh i really don't think Walz has/will ever be a true top contender unfortunately, we lost Then just give us Beshear 2
Blade Posted July 31 Posted July 31 The way (as of now) all that he said wouldnt happen actually did happen 2 3
Sannie Posted July 31 Posted July 31 4 minutes ago, Blade said: The way (as of now) all that he said wouldnt happen actually did happen TBF, everyone was operating on the fact that Biden himself said he wouldn't drop out. Biden making the decision himself and then supporting Harris made the transition so much easier and more palatable.
Virgos Groove Posted July 31 Posted July 31 If he's not the VP pick, I will literally set myself on fire. 4 2
Sannie Posted July 31 Posted July 31 (edited) 1 hour ago, americanlife said: Yup yup! Stuff like this could cost Dems the election. The "weird" approach should only go so far and not delve into insults. Dems finally hitting back and being mean isn't going to cost them the election lol. But yeah, some of these guys are missing the point of the "weird" narrative and doing the exact same thing as the MAGAs. Being weird isn't about how someone looks or how they act, it's about POLITICIANS and the policies they support. JD Vance is not weird because he obsesses over family or because he looks like a big toe. He's weird because he obsseses over YOUR family and because he looks like a big toe . Making fun of the way MAGAs look is not the point here. 3 hours ago, Vermillion said: If Kamala picks Josh Shapiro she will win Pennsylvania and lose Michigan, and thus, the election. There is no path without Michigan. Not to discount the major importance of MI, but this is not true. It gets a lot harder without MI, but there's still AZ and NV. Ideally, we want both bc then we don't have to rely on AZ and NV. The fact is this: As it is right now, Harris maybe wins both PA and MI. With Walz or Beshear, that doesn't change. Harris maybe wins both PA and MI (I personally think she'd win). With Shapiro, Harris definitely wins PA and maybe wins MI. So what's better? A maybe for both or a definite for one and maybe for the other? I'm not in support of Shapiro btw, just trying to make sense of all of this. The idea that Shapiro means a loss in MI is nothing more than speculation over the Arab vote. However, with the poll I posted yesterday, Harris' support among the Arab population in the US is around 24%, which is 12 times that of Trump. There is an argument to be made that a lot of Arab voters will come "home" to Harris when the time comes. Not a guarantee, of course, but they're not voting for Trump either so it's not like Harris loses that block and it helps Trump. I truly don't know what to think about this lol. I want to win and don't care who the pick is as long as they help us win. Ultimately I trust the campaign as they have more information than we do, but I want the person who will win over the person who makes me feel "good". Edited July 31 by Sannie
FameFatale Posted July 31 Posted July 31 9 minutes ago, Virgos Groove said: If he's not the VP pick, I will literally set myself on fire. Same. I just love his vibe
VOSS Posted July 31 Posted July 31 Maybe Kamala can move to the center on LGBTQ issues if winning Arab voters in Michigan is so important? There have been a lot of protests there about those issues. 11
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