dabunique Posted July 30 Posted July 30 2 hours ago, Vermillion said: Oh yes both this and da marijuana amendment passing with over 65% ... i jus know Ronny is mad as phuck 3 2
Sannie Posted July 30 Posted July 30 3 minutes ago, Slamless said: Demns really adopting the "weird" messaging and then not picking Walz is / would be a mess No, because it shows Walz can be an effective stumper for her without being on the ticket. We need effective stumpers like Walz and Shapiro and Whitmer not beholden by the confines of what the VP will have to adhere to. 3 minutes ago, Musicmajor said: She needs to keep Shapiro and Whitmer out stumping for her (they're really good at it) and choose Walz or Beshear for sure. I PRAYYYYY she makes the right decision. UGH, she has two amazing choices and she better not ignore them lol. 2 minutes ago, Armani? said: Today is NOT a good day for MAGA. 2
Sannie Posted July 30 Posted July 30 (edited) https://www.faupolling.com/july-30-2024/ Quote Trump leads with 18 to 35-year-old voters, 45% to 36% Am I being delusional in saying I don't buy this? This makes no sense. The one demographic to historically shift being the younger demo? There's no way. Quote 80% of Democratic voters report being happy 80% of voters who intend to vote for Harris report being happy 61% of Republicans voters report being happy 57% percent of voters with an intention to vote for Trump report being happy Edited July 30 by Sannie
Sanctuary Posted July 30 Posted July 30 8 minutes ago, thedeathbymusic said: #TrumpFallsWithWalz #BeSureWithBeshear #WalzNotWalls 3
NausAllien Posted July 30 Posted July 30 Nate Silver's model is back. It gives Harris a 38% chance of winning (similar to betting markets) He once again underlines the importance of having a solid lead nationally (i.e. in the popular vote) because she's at a disavantage in the EC. Biden barely won the EC in spite of having a 4.5 lead in the national vote.
Both Sides Now Posted July 30 Posted July 30 It's actually insane how transformative her accession has been in such a short space of time. I really, really hope she keeps this momentum up with the DNC and a good, progressive VP pick. Hopefully, the lessons so far teach the Democrats that they need to consider their young and progressive bases. It clearly pays dividends they actually listen to these voices. I think a Trump loss would also have important implications for geopolitics. His "weird" brand of far-right politics needs to die; I'm so sick of it. Also, I relish in the thought of Hillary seeing a woman be elected and being known as the only LOSER who lost to a reality TV star (which is another lesson for Democrats). I know she would ultimately disappoint on a number of fronts but I am totally coconut-pilled for the next 100 days. 4
Armani? Posted July 30 Posted July 30 3 minutes ago, Sannie said: https://www.faupolling.com/july-30-2024/ Am I being delusional in saying I don't buy this? This makes no sense. The one demographic to historically shift being the younger demo? There's no way. The crosstabs are a hot mess 1
GhostBox Posted July 30 Posted July 30 5 minutes ago, NausAllien said: Nate Silver's model is back. It gives Harris a 38% chance of winning (similar to betting markets) He once again underlines the importance of having a solid lead nationally (i.e. in the popular vote) because she's at a disavantage in the EC. Biden barely won the EC in spite of having a 4.5 lead in the national vote. She will win and prove his model wrong 👏🏼👏🏼
Sannie Posted July 30 Posted July 30 (edited) 6 minutes ago, NausAllien said: Nate Silver's model is back. It gives Harris a 38% chance of winning (similar to betting markets) He once again underlines the importance of having a solid lead nationally (i.e. in the popular vote) because she's at a disavantage in the EC. Biden barely won the EC in spite of having a 4.5 lead in the national vote. Quote Biden won the election with 306 electoral votes and 51.3% of the national popular vote, compared to Trump's 232 electoral votes and 46.9% of the popular vote. Sorry to burst your bubble, but Kamala is not only getting .6% more of the popular vote. What is this? Just now, GhostBox said: She will win and prove his model wrong 👏🏼👏🏼 I'm not just saying this, I swear, but nobody has taken Nate Silver seriously for a while now lol. Edited July 30 by Sannie 1 1
Blade Posted July 30 Posted July 30 From Nate's model: If Harris wins PA she has an 86% chance of winning the election. If she Harris wins MI she has an 85% chance of winning the election. 1 2
Blade Posted July 30 Posted July 30 The PA Harris +4 poll from today has not been added to Nate's model 3 2
Eóghan Posted July 30 Posted July 30 For the people who followed the Hilary campaign closely back then; what was "Tim Kaine" like? All I know is that he was absolutely steamrolled by Hilary's aura, which was maybe what she wanted. Was he more of a Walz, Beshear or Shapiro?
Bamboo Posted July 30 Posted July 30 Silvers model will need a few more weeks still to be able to predict a race several months away. We are like only a week into Harris' campaign. She still has momentum to grow. Trump's campaign has probably peaked in momentum and will be playing defense the rest of the campaign. It's obviously still a toss up but the polls just show Kamala is already in a good place and still has tons of opportunities to grow.
Eóghan Posted July 30 Posted July 30 I'm only asking because he just posted this and I had completely forgotten he was Hilary's VP pick
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