Sannie Posted July 28 Posted July 28 6 minutes ago, GhostBox said: So many of the respected polling accounts I follow are pretty much saying the same thing. They acknowledge Shapiro's possibility of damaging certain groups, but they think his strong performance in Pennsylvania outweighs that. I just think for the sake of momentum and excitement, she doesn't go with this guy. But if her team is looking at the numbers, Shapiro has that in the bag. —— these new polling numbers for Kamla are exciting. If they're true and hold up, we should start seeing her push ahead of Trump in the head to head polls. 1
Blade Posted July 28 Posted July 28 The models will turn back on this week. Probably as early as tomorrow. Some things to be aware of as I paraphrase Nate Silver and Elliot Morris (2 of the modelers) and also give some of my own thoughts based on what they've said 1. VP Pick can change things but not by a whole lot. Seems to be an inverse relationship between how small a state is and how big of a change the VP makes in that state. (Note: this does not count for any enthusiasm/turnout the VP pick may help produce in other states) 2. What was 75/25 for Nate will now look significantly more like a toss up or Lean Trump on Nate's model. 3. Elliot's model was about 50/50 before turning off, doubt this one will change much. 4. Although poll averages show 1-2 pt shift towards Harris, high quality polls show 3-4 pt shift. 5. and most importantly, the convention hasn't happened yet so whatever the models say this week will be helpful but not definitive 4 1
Eat The Acid Posted July 28 Posted July 28 1 hour ago, GhostBox said: Wait - can we have Walz as president? Damn that man is amazing !
shelven Posted July 28 Posted July 28 35 minutes ago, Sannie said: but they think his strong performance in Pennsylvania outweighs that. The problem is that Pennsylvania isn't enough. There needs to be an assurance that Shapiro will raise the ticket (or at the very least, not actively harm it) in at least 2-3 of Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia. And the more I see of Shapiro and hear about his political history, the more I'm inclined to believe that he'd be a weak choice outside of Pennsylvania. Someone like Walz may not give a huge boost to a single state like Shapiro has the potential to do in Pennsylvania, but I think he plays better on average across all the swing states, which is more important considering the Dems need to win several swing states to win the election. 4
Sannie Posted July 28 Posted July 28 3 minutes ago, shelven said: The problem is that Pennsylvania isn't enough. There needs to be an assurance that Shapiro will raise the ticket (or at the very least, not actively harm it) in at least 2-3 of Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia. And the more I see of Shapiro and hear about his political history, the more I'm inclined to believe that he'd be a weak choice outside of Pennsylvania. Someone like Walz may not give a huge boost to a single state like Shapiro has the potential to do in Pennsylvania, but I think he plays better on average across all the swing states, which is more important considering the Dems need to win several swing states to win the election. I agree, but I think so many people are hung up on PA because it is so important. but are we taking into account that a lot of people outside of PA may not know all that much about Shapiro and his record? They might just see this young, "good looking" white guy who is a good talker and be swayed by that. And if Shapiro is willing to denounce some of her past actions and move forward, would that help? Take into account he's Jewish and that makes it even harder for Trump and co. to attack. Just like we're seeing with Vance attacking women, we'll start seeing these people attacking Jews. idk, I'm just trying to cope with the idea that he could be picked so I'm not saddened if it eventually happens lol. Trying to remain glass half full. 1
DR0GO Posted July 28 Posted July 28 46 minutes ago, Bamboo said: Okay Walz has kind of convinced me You and me both.
GraceRandolph Posted July 28 Posted July 28 1 hour ago, Thuggin said: It's insane how far the Republican Party is able to go without being punished electorally Like I feel like Trump still feels like they have the election in the bag, so he's just saying whatever The GOP has cultivated a batshit base for years.
DR0GO Posted July 28 Posted July 28 My VP (front-runners) ranking from best to worse as of today: Walz (combines the best of the group into one package) --> Beshear (safe choice) --> Kelly (wouldn't the senate seat be a concern?) = Shapiro --> Cooper (nice guy but he's like watching paint dry) Who I think they'll go with: Kelly, Shapiro or Beshear 3
TrymeB Posted July 28 Posted July 28 We need to rally behind Kamala regardless of who they pick as their VP candidate. Hearing Trump tell the Christian nationals this is the last election they will have to vote in because he will take care of everything after has me concerned (more than his other idiotic comments). 6 1
GraceRandolph Posted July 28 Posted July 28 35 minutes ago, TrymeB said: We need to rally behind Kamala regardless of who they pick as their VP candidate. Hearing Trump tell the Christian nationals this is the last election they will have to vote in because he will take care of everything after has me concerned (more than his other idiotic comments). It's also on the Dems to choose carefully, because they need to avoid voter apathy as much as possible. 1
Eat The Acid Posted July 28 Posted July 28 (edited) Shapiro is OUT imo. Too much damage. Beshesr and Walz coming for that VP spot. Leftists finally winning (by finally receiving the absolute bare minimum - better than the bullshit we usually get) Edited July 28 by Eat The Acid 5
Blade Posted July 28 Posted July 28 4 minutes ago, GhostBox said: If he's so popular in PA, then he can continue stumping for her there. Stay away from the national stage. 7 4 1
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