Vermillion Posted July 28 Posted July 28 Billionaire Reid Hoffmann wants Kamala to replace Lina Kahn for FTC. I hope she doesn't listen. 1
Vermillion Posted July 28 Posted July 28 Relieved: Beshear Ambivalent: Cooper, Walz Frustrated: Kelly Angry: Shapiro
shelven Posted July 28 Posted July 28 2 hours ago, NausAllien said: It's also important to consider that Trump in previous presidential elections considerably OUTPERFORMED polls, particularly in Wisconsin and Michigan. I'll use RCP averages since they're easier to find: 2020 Wisconsin RCP average: Biden +6.7 2020 Wisconsin result: Biden +0.7 2020 Michigan RCP average: Biden +4.2 2020 Michigan result: Biden +2.8 So if they're tied in those states, keep in mind Trump could outperformed polls like he did in previous cycles and carry those states. This is definitely a possibility and shouldn't be discounted, but just for the benefit of others reading this thread, it's also important to remember that a general rule of statistics is that the direction of polling errors isn't easily predictable. The fact that the polling error in 2016 and 2020 went in Trump's favour isn't evidence that any polling error this time will also go in his favour; the polls could just as plausibly be underestimating Harris. The average person's failure to understand this concept is part of what led to the "2022 midterms are going to be a RED WAVE" discourse. People were used to the polls underestimating the GOP so they ignored the high quality pollsters that either showed tied races or the Dems slightly ahead because they assumed the real results would be a few points to the right of the polls. But the polling error ended up being in the Dems' favour in many key races that cycle. 3 1
Communion Posted July 28 Posted July 28 17 minutes ago, Vermillion said: @Blade @Communion dddd the reality of Maya Harris being married to an Uber attorney and the discussions that happened in 2020 around it did pop in my mind when retelling that bit about Walz vetoing the Uber minimum wage bill last night. I am curious what data elected progressives are seeing to trust him the most (maybe Beshear isn't in full contention?). Beshear outing Biden on the conservative, anti-abortion judge could be due to personal historical beef within Kentucky, so I don't know if I can assume progressive inclination if it wasn't due to that, but being willing to criticize the Biden admin over it so openly is still the most note-worthy thing any of the people in consideration have done. 2 1
CaptainMusic Posted July 28 Posted July 28 23 minutes ago, Vermillion said: @Blade @Communion How long until something "bad" comes out about Beshear? No VP will be perfect so people need to stop nitpicking everything. Beshear and Waltz are clearly the best choices. 3
Vermillion Posted July 28 Posted July 28 Who knows if they'll pull this out but it's a heck of a start 2
Communion Posted July 28 Posted July 28 5 minutes ago, Vermillion said: '16 and '20 primaries will haunt the party until I die If the one benefit of Biden's old age ends up being that he then by default thought "digital non-fungible currency tokens" sounded like whacky Malarky to him... The claim that Sanders won't endorse Harris until she ensures him that Lina Khan is going to remain head of the FTC is likely true. 1
Vermillion Posted July 28 Posted July 28 @Communion Suspected the FTC angle on Bernie but hadn't given it much thought. Wonder what other leverage he's been to trying to apply - since the switch it's been a blizzard of news….
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