Vermillion Posted July 28 Posted July 28 5 hours ago, bunnyeyes said: So where are we on election predictions post-Biden exit? About 7-8 users are here are good on posting battleground polls, which is all I'd watch out for and not national polls at this point. We're coming up on August so now's the time to track them closely every few days until election day. Avoid RCP averages which still weigh to the right and go to 538's etc. Stick with B- ratings and above only. Harris has effectively closed the gap to just outside the average margin of error but for a number of reasons I've covered already in this thread I still think she will lose - BUT, again, this is absolutely helping keep Senate and House races above water unlike a few weeks ago, particularly for those that aren't incumbents 1
NausAllien Posted July 28 Posted July 28 It's also important to consider that Trump in previous presidential elections considerably OUTPERFORMED polls, particularly in Wisconsin and Michigan. I'll use RCP averages since they're easier to find: 2020 Wisconsin RCP average: Biden +6.7 2020 Wisconsin result: Biden +0.7 2020 Michigan RCP average: Biden +4.2 2020 Michigan result: Biden +2.8 So if they're tied in those states, keep in mind Trump could outperformed polls like he did in previous cycles and carry those states. 3
thesegayz Posted July 28 Posted July 28 9 hours ago, Communion said: So basically Someone send this to Kamala, STAT (I hate that it's from a GOP account, but almost all YouTube video links for "I love venn diagrams Harris" are) 1
Bloodflowers. Posted July 28 Posted July 28 17 hours ago, nooniebao said: Oh wow, look at how WOKE he was This will only make him more likeable with swing voters, but MAGAs will be fuming
Vermillion Posted July 28 Posted July 28 On 7/26/2024 at 10:42 PM, nooniebao said: Remembering the week long news cycle on Fetterman on this exact subject. There were a lot of focus groups and polling. Probably better internal polling now on which negatives are stronger for turn-out for support vs. banning her team's seen. The industry is clearly powerful in western PA as is voter sentiment of their workers. This is deja vu to Hillary and coal but much more closely followed. I mean, I don't support it but there's apparently not enough time in 100ish days to effectively market a worker transition plan effectively and counter job robber talking points effectively from the right.
nadiamendell Posted July 28 Posted July 28 (edited) Besides the fact that Shapiro is not liked by the left due to his stance on Israel & protesters, I think it would also be a bad idea to choose him because he may come across as elitist to some (copying Obama's speaking style, the way he dresses, etc.). Kamala is already seen as a left-coast elitist to many. She needs someone like Walz or Beshear to reach out to the rural working-class voters. Shapiro is NOT that person. Edited July 28 by nadiamendell 3
Vermillion Posted July 28 Posted July 28 Walz or Beshear: Relieved Cooper: Ambivalent Kelly: Annoyed Shapiro: Angry Also need to remind folks that the oppo against Shapiro (for a Dem base audience) is lengthier than all of them despite his public speaking abilities being perceived as stronger by the Acela Corridor audience. 3 1
nadiamendell Posted July 28 Posted July 28 (edited) The way Kamala has turned her image around in such a short amount of time is really remarkable. Edited July 28 by nadiamendell 8 1
Vermillion Posted July 28 Posted July 28 This man as prospective Senate Majority Leader scares the **** out of me, dare I say almost more than Trump. More focused than Trump, less clunky than DeSantis, more shameless than most in the GOP. 1
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