Sergi91 Posted July 26 Posted July 26 17 minutes ago, Rotunda said: This is interesting... Testing the waters
GraceRandolph Posted July 26 Posted July 26 17 minutes ago, shelven said: Polls over the last few years have consistently found that less than 30% (and as few as 20%) of Americans are against gay marriage, and a significant portion of that number presumably includes Republicans who aren't voting for any Democratic ticket under any circumstances. Add that to the fact that Pete is a straight person's idea of a "model gay" (he's married, he has kids, he presents in a straight way, and he doesn't talk about being gay much other than when it comes up as a political topic) and I really struggle to imagine more than a trivial amount of people who would consider voting for a Democratic ticket but choose not to because a gay man is the VP. Ultimately we agree that Pete's a bad choice and adds nothing to the ticket. But I don't think his sexuality is the reason for that, I just think he would be an uninspiring VP who committed Dems like but would do nothing to persuade undecideds. It only takes a trivial amount of voters to sink a candidate in the electoral college. Supporting gay marriage doesn't mean that people view gay men as presidential. DADT was literally supported by Dems up until like 2009.
shelven Posted July 26 Posted July 26 10 minutes ago, CaptainMusic said: I think you severely underestimate how homophobic straight men still are. Especially Black, Latino and Arab men who tend to be more religious. Many will struggle to vote for black woman AND a gay white man. Like I mean... I literally cited data? Unless you believe there's a massive swath of homophobes who also believe gay people should be allowed to get married, something's not adding up A vast majority of these aggressively homophobic straight men are already voting Republican regardless of who's on the Democratic ticket. Someone who decides not to vote for Harris isn't going to make that decision because a gay man is her VP, they're going to do it because Harris supports trans rights and sexuality/gender identity education in schools 1 1
GraceRandolph Posted July 26 Posted July 26 11 minutes ago, Armani? said: I think that would affect turnout more than it would turn to Trump votes tbh. Old Black Democrats especially still wouldn't flip to Trump for that lmao Also I'm not sure the average voter would even really fully realize his sexuality unless the news cycle/media intentionally covers it relentlessly Right-wing media would make it an issue, and even a few older male voters staying home/voting third party is a huge risk.
NausAllien Posted July 26 Posted July 26 1 minute ago, shelven said: I mean... I literally cited data? Unless you believe there's a massive swath of homophobes who also believe gay people should be allowed to get married, something's not adding up A vast majority of these aggressively homophobic straight men are already voting Republican regardless of who's on the Democratic ticket. Someone who decides not to vote for Harris isn't going to make that decision because a gay man is her VP, they're going to do it because Harris supports trans rights and sexuality/gender identity education in schools Let's not forget how RAZOR-THIN the margins usually are (a few thousand votes in swing states), so even if 10% of all straight men who were going to vote for Kamala decide not to do it because Pete is on her ticket, that could be difference between winning and losing states like Georgia or Pennsylvania.
shelven Posted July 26 Posted July 26 4 minutes ago, GraceRandolph said: Supporting gay marriage doesn't mean that people view gay men as presidential. And my point is that: (1) Pete presents like a straight person's version of a gay man, so this hesitancy isn't going to apply to him in the same way that it would apply to an unmarried, feminine presenting gay man; and (2) people who don't view gay men (even straight-presenting ones) as presidential also probably don't think that high schoolers should learn about gender identity or that trans people aren't just suffering from mental illness, so the modern Democratic party isn't convincing those voters anyways.
shelven Posted July 26 Posted July 26 2 minutes ago, NausAllien said: who were going to vote for Kamala This is my entire point. These elusive straight men who view Pete's sexuality as a disqualifier were not already going to vote for Kamala. We're talking about an incredibly narrow Venn diagram (Kamala's impact ) of people who were comfortable with the Dem party's platform supporting trans rights and LGBTQ+ education in schools, among other pro-LGBTQ+ policies, but draw the line at a straight-presenting, married army veteran with children being on the ticket purely because he's gay. People's politics are weird and so I'm sure some of those people exist, but I'm entirely unconvinced it's anywhere big enough to actually swing even a very close state. Anyways, I didn't expect this point to be so controversial and it's a meaningless argument anyways because I agree that Pete would be a bad VP pick and have been saying that for weeks I don't want to derail the thread with this debate so I'll stop now. 3
gagacasanova Posted July 26 Posted July 26 The way she's collecting millennials & gen z'ers like infinity stones https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTNx9veXU/ 1
teresaguidice Posted July 26 Posted July 26 2 minutes ago, shelven said: I mean... I literally cited data? Unless you believe there's a massive swath of homophobes who also believe gay people should be allowed to get married, something's not adding up A vast majority of these aggressively homophobic straight men are already voting Republican regardless of who's on the Democratic ticket. Someone who decides not to vote for Harris isn't going to make that decision because a gay man is her VP, they're going to do it because Harris supports trans rights and sexuality/gender identity education in schools a not insignificant amount of voters have no knowledge or only a vague fuzzy picture of the candidates' policy positions and just vote on general sentiment. there's people who voted for obama, trump, and bernie sanders within the span of less than a decade. when an election can be decided by like 30K votes, i really would not rule out that the impact of some people just not wanting to vote for a gay guy even if they might not be opposed to something like gay marriage. just like some won't vote for a woman or a non-white person. i agree, though, that its moot and pete's robotic grade grubber vibes are his bigger liability. 1
YellowRibbon Posted July 26 Posted July 26 (edited) Someone mentioned it earlier I think, but them testing Beshear in both, Iowa and Georgia is smart... They're trying to get reactions across the party, from the red rural white people in Iowa to the urban minorities in purple Georgia Edited July 26 by YellowRibbon 2
Sannie Posted July 26 Posted July 26 1 minute ago, YellowRibbon said: Someone mentioned it earlier I think, but them testing Beshear in both, Iowa and Georgia is smart... They're trying to get reactions across the party, from the rural white people in Iowa to the urban minorities in purple Georgia How exactly do they gauge reactions in those places? I think he'll do well in both I'm curious how it's quantified.
justin. Posted July 26 Posted July 26 I just had a wow moment thinking about the fact that we really might see a black woman be the first to smash the glass ceiling and become president. We are about to potentially live through and contribute to an incredibly historic moment. 6
Raspberries Posted July 26 Posted July 26 Two MN polls have Kamala +6 and +10 lmao and the GOP thought this was the year MN went red 2 1
CaptainMusic Posted July 27 Posted July 27 12 minutes ago, shelven said: I mean... I literally cited data? Unless you believe there's a massive swath of homophobes who also believe gay people should be allowed to get married, something's not adding up A vast majority of these aggressively homophobic straight men are already voting Republican regardless of who's on the Democratic ticket. Someone who decides not to vote for Harris isn't going to make that decision because a gay man is her VP, they're going to do it because Harris supports trans rights and sexuality/gender identity education in schools The data you sighted doesn't show the split by gender/race. There are tons of homophobes on forums like TheColi, Boxden and LipstickAlley who supported Biden and now support Kamala who will hate Pete and wont vote due to the "gay agenda" Most won't care but considering how close the race is, it's not worth the risk. 1
YellowRibbon Posted July 27 Posted July 27 2 minutes ago, Sannie said: How exactly do they gauge reactions in those places? I think he'll do well in both I'm curious how it's quantified. Well, in today's age, it's a blend of a lot of factors I'd say... While not being a total expert in the matter, I think some factors do weight a lot in these type of "tests" 1. Fundraising numbers from small donors during or right after the event (because money matters and sometimes, it helps to quantify excitement in the base) 2. Reactions across the press and social media (because the party that controls the narrative is more likely to win) 3. Taking into account strategic hardships of each candidate. They probably have tons of Excel sheets ready to compare through this and next week 1 1
Bears01 Posted July 27 Posted July 27 Andy for VP the contrast between him and a loser like JD Vance is night and day, and he doesn't alienate or anger literally any fraction of the Democratic Party 7
GraceRandolph Posted July 27 Posted July 27 3 minutes ago, GhostBox said: 🤷 Bernie did 282010302 rallies for Hillary Many of us do have legitimate concerns that a female candidate cannot win in the electoral college. It's not sexist.
GhostBox Posted July 27 Posted July 27 (edited) 7 minutes ago, GraceRandolph said: Bernie did 282010302 rallies for Hillary Many of us do have legitimate concerns that a female candidate cannot win in the electoral college. It's not sexist. Sure. but Bernie's track record of only refusing to endorse right away seems to be only for the females 💀 he had no problem jumping on the Biden train and he's more moderate than Kamala Edited July 27 by GhostBox
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