Mariah4life Posted July 25 Posted July 25 Kamala needs to build her reputation amongst the public before people will start to switch over to her. She's off to a good start and is building the momentem. People have strong opinions about who they vote for. This is not a surprise release of a pop girl where people just jump on the hot train without consequences.
Sannie Posted July 25 Posted July 25 1 hour ago, Bloo said: Donald Trump just narrowly survived being assassinated just over a week ago. There's aย lotย going on and undecided voters still barely know Kamala. Sure, Kamala is the VP. But she's the VP of one of the most unpopular presidents in history. She needs to develop her own branding that is removed from Biden to gain traction. That does not happen over night. Give it time. ย So, again, this is not the honeymoon phase. This is the phase to build up hype and momentum and lay the groundwork to win over undecided voters. That's happening now. The week following the convention will be a better vibe check to see how the GP is feeling about her. Now is too indecisive to know much of anything. Wait, you're right. I didn't even think of it like this. I was under the impression Kamala was in her honeymoon phase, but it makes complete sense that she actually isn't. ย If Kamala is polling neck and neck with Trump and she's not even in her honeymoon phase, Trump and his campaign should be a little weary right now.ย I would argue that what we're seeing right now with Harris's numbers is solely based on her not being Trump. That should mean, as people get to know her more, her numbers should rise, or fall if you wanna look at it that way. So much exciting stuff ahead for us. 2
shelven Posted July 25 Posted July 25 The last month of US electoral politics has been so unprecedented that it's a waste of time trying to pin down what "phase" the candidates should be in right now and what types of bumps and dings in the polls they should be experiencing. An RNC bump has never had to be considered alongside that party's candidate facing an assassination attemptย andย the other party changing their candidate,ย all at the same time. And likewise, a "honeymoon period" has never had to be considered in the context of the candidate replacing the presumptive nominee after primary voting was over, all while the other party just had their convention and their candidate faced an assassination attempt. ย There's simply nothing in US electoral history that can even come close to serving as a baseline or precedent for this past month. The polls we're getting now have to be read purely for what they are, not what they are as compared to what they "should" be. And what the polls show right now is that Trump is still favoured, but Harris is making this closer than Biden was and she has upside given her decent favourability rating in these same polls and her ability to potentially persuade undecideds given that opinions about her aren't yet baked in the way they're baked in for both Trump and Biden.ย 8
GhostBox Posted July 25 Posted July 25 Well it looks like it's gonna be one of these 3 then. Cooper is the worse option in my opinion. He's very Tim kaine ย
Chemist Posted July 25 Posted July 25 2 hours ago, Blade said: Can we just agree that an average of the very minimal polls that have been conducted since Sunday shows a Trump lead within the MOE during his convention bump and a gain for Harris compared to Biden among young, minority, and independent voters? ย That's literally ALL we know about the state of this new 4 day old race. Acc to RCP average, right now it's trump +1.7.ย Before Biden dropped out and after Trump's assassination attempt, it was Trump +3.2. That's already a significant change for such divisive elections. Enthusiasm for Harris still needs to grow and may not be fully reflected in the polls yet.ย Trump's on the other hand is completely capped 1
Vermillion Posted July 25 Posted July 25 2 hours ago, GhostBox said: Well it looks like it's gonna be one of these 3 then. Cooper is the worse option in my opinion. He's very Tim kaine ย After doing more research, Cooper has less harm reduction than either Shapiro or Kelly. ย Kelly and Shapiro hid their red flags because they were forced to and I don't believe the sincerity of either as there isn't time to call them out on either of them or they're planning their answers to dodge them if they're picked for future interviews. ย Shapiro on Israel and Kelly on labor. ย Everyone here rooting for Beshear when I knew with Eric Holder running this process that he was never truly in consideration and was being included as an olive branch.
Vermillion Posted July 25 Posted July 25 No one responded to my original thoughts on the New York Post report on Obama thinking Kamala's going to lose the election, bomb the debates, have several gaffes, and that his decision not to endorse had nothing to do with waiting until the convention. ย The article's getting traction again so I guess I'll repost this take on it which is an entirely different angle that seems to be gaining traction. ย There's parts of me skeptical of the whole thing almost solely based on the Blagojevich quotes whose apparently hellbent on getting back into American politics, even if it's a dusty podcast corner. ย ย ย 1
Wonderland Posted July 25 Posted July 25 I'm really a stan of Tim Walz. He's so witty and would slay a debate with Vanceย ย 1
TaggedGalaxy Posted July 25 Posted July 25 44 minutes ago, Vermillion said: No one responded to my original thoughts on the New York Post report on Obama thinking Kamala's going to lose the election, bomb the debates, have several gaffes, and that his decision not to endorse had nothing to do with waiting until the convention. ย The article's getting traction again so I guess I'll repost this take on it which is an entirely different angle that seems to be gaining traction. ย There's parts of me skeptical of the whole thing almost solely based on the Blagojevich quotes whose apparently hellbent on getting back into American politics, even if it's a dusty podcast corner. ย ย ย This makes me think that Kelly is the most likely VP pick at this point as a way to get Obama's endorsement and to cater to his ego.ย ย He must be fuming that he didn't get what he wanted and that Kamala had record break fundraisingย
Tovitov Posted July 25 Posted July 25 50 minutes ago, Vermillion said: No one responded to my original thoughts on the New York Post report on Obama thinking Kamala's going to lose the election, bomb the debates, have several gaffes, and that his decision not to endorse had nothing to do with waiting until the convention. ย The article's getting traction again so I guess I'll repost this take on it which is an entirely different angle that seems to be gaining traction. ย There's parts of me skeptical of the whole thing almost solely based on the Blagojevich quotes whose apparently hellbent on getting back into American politics, even if it's a dusty podcast corner. ย ย ย Because The New York Post is a right wing tabloid. Why would they have insider information on how Obama was feeling. ย Fact is, Obama will endorse before the convention and give a prime time speech. Even if he thought Kamala was a bad pick, he'd never admit it. He also didnt endorse Biden until the last minute in 2020 either.ย 3 1
midnightdawn Posted July 25 Posted July 25 I don't believe Obama was shocked Biden endorsed Kamala. And I don't think it's realistic that he thought Mark Kelly would have come out on top at a contested convention. But it is interesting that he hasn't endorsed her. 1
Thickorita Posted July 25 Posted July 25 If anything, this consolidation of support and record donations just shows that people are tired of the overwrought and extended presidential campaign system that starts a year before the actual election. Anyone that is selected will have lost interest and momentum by election day. ย I know it's all about the huge money and media circus, but ideally, the primary debates would happen in August, primary voting and convention in September, presidential campaign and debates in October and then election day in November. No one needs to be fighting it out in Iowa a year in advance. No one should be giving a **** about politics during the summer. 2 2
ultraviolence.xx Posted July 25 Posted July 25 16 minutes ago, Thickorita said: If anything, this consolidation of support and record donations just shows that people are tired of the overwrought and extended presidential campaign system that starts a year before the actual election. Anyone that is selected will have lost interest and momentum by election day. ย I know it's all about the huge money and media circus, but ideally, the primary debates would happen in August, primary voting and convention in September, presidential campaign and debates in October and then election day in November. No one needs to be fighting it out in Iowa a year in advance. No one should be giving a **** about politics during the summer. this would make sense, if mail-in/absentee voting didn't start a month and a half before election day
ClashAndBurn Posted July 25 Posted July 25 In that case, would he not be better suited to Comms Director rather than in charge of policy? He may have turned around some of his shortcomings at the earlier stages of his tenure in charge of Transportation, but the areas he had blunders in (airlines, train derailments) were so massive that they could be turned against him if he were anywhere near the top of the ticket. ย He can try in 16 years maybe. By then maybe the country will have gotten over its homophobia enough to accept a gay president 2
Eat The Acid Posted July 25 Posted July 25 4 minutes ago, nadiamendell said: She's gonna STOMP this campaign. Everything is flawless so far. Harris is meeting this moment.ย
TrymeB Posted July 25 Posted July 25 Anyone else getting only MAGA ads on their ATRL page when visiting this thread? There is a video of JD Vance yapping and all. Has ATRL sold their soul by letting MAGA advertise on here? What's next? My Pillow ads?ย https://imgur.com/a/hKVPEWi
Ms. Togekiss Posted July 25 Posted July 25 8 hours ago, NausAllien said: I never claimed to be the smartest, and I most definitely am not. However, I believe I am more objective and realistic than many of you. You all are simply too close to be impartial. You see everything through a particular lens. But my lens isn't tainted by fanaticism toward any political party or ideology. ย The fact that most of you are so overtly ANTAGONISTIC towards someone who has different ideas, opinions, and perspectives speaks really poorly of you. ย @Bloo disagreed with my interpretation of the poll, but they weren't rude like most of you are. Oh wow, maybe because you're from Argentina and what happens in this race ultimately doesn't affect youย ย you must have some sort of kink because you keep coming back after getting whacked by almost everyone on this threadย 4
Ms. Togekiss Posted July 25 Posted July 25 They're all swinging to Kamala, with PA having a big bump (+7) ย 3
Eat The Acid Posted July 25 Posted July 25 Yall that Argentinian is a troll. He's saying things for a reaction. Just ignore him.ย 8
Vroom Vroom Posted July 25 Posted July 25 Under normal circumstances Harris would never win a presidential election. This has been discussed multiple times in this thread. Most people here didn't want her to run in 2028 ย But this race is extremely abnormal. A significant majority of Americans did not want a Trump v. Biden rematch. Enthusiasm was at an all time low and people just wanted a new face. Kamala is not perfect but she is a new face. She is great at campaigning and making stump speeches. I am worried about her doing interviews and debates. Even if she has a few gaffes, she has a really good chance of winning. That Nikki Haley quote has a lot of merit, "the first party to retire its 80-year-old candidate is going to be the party that wins this election"ย 1 8
Vermillion Posted July 25 Posted July 25 Clip below's gone viral overnight, has over 8 million views as of this writing ย ย
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