Redstreak Posted July 12 Posted July 12 8 minutes ago, Vermillion said: Oh yeah, everyone's also forgetting the Heritage Foundation is planning to sue if Dems try to change their ballot with Kamala leading it. Amid all the chaos I guess everyone forgot Doesn't that only factor post convention? If we haven't printed ballots yet idk how they would have any legal recourse
Vermillion Posted July 12 Posted July 12 The prevailing wisdom was that tickets splitting was going to save the Dems from Biden's failure. The stats are now starting to shift against that common wisdom for anyone that's not an incumbent. Exhibit A is some Senate races. The greatest argument for picking Kamala, even if she loses, is to have a greater effect down ballot to save the Senate and House. 1
Vermillion Posted July 12 Posted July 12 20 minutes ago, Redstreak said: Doesn't that only factor post convention? If we haven't printed ballots yet idk how they would have any legal recourse Not a lawyer and I have to look back into this from some post I saw on this on X. I'll try to get back to you.
ClashAndBurn Posted July 12 Posted July 12 20 minutes ago, Vermillion said: The prevailing wisdom was that tickets splitting was going to save the Dems from Biden's failure. The stats are now starting to shift against that common wisdom for anyone that's not an incumbent. Exhibit A is some Senate races. The greatest argument for picking Kamala, even if she loses, is to have a greater effect down ballot to save the Senate and House. Gallego is running ads on Xitter showing he's down against Kari Lake in a desperate bid for support when polling was showing him romping her by double digits months ago. Like… Biden is an ACTUAL poison pill for the downballot and the Biden campists are the only ones who don't see it. But yeah, let's just cherry pick a national poll that looks rosy for Biden when New Yorkers are raising alarm bells that he's turning their state into a battleground. 1 1
Vermillion Posted July 12 Posted July 12 17 hours ago, Slamless said: what's the count at now with stanton? 1 hour ago, Vermillion said: @Blade With help from a member who I guess I'll keep anonymous (?) here is the updated list with new format. Deleted the past posts. WITHDRAW BIDEN List Representatives (D) 1. Rep. Lloyd Doggett (TX-37) 2. Rep. Raul Grijalva (AZ-3) 3. Rep. Seth Moulton (MA-6) 4. Rep. Mike Quigley (IL-5) 5. Rep. Angie Craig (MN-2) 6. Rep. Mark Takano (CA-39) 7. Rep. Adam Smith (WA-9) 8. Rep. Joe Morelle (NY-25) 9. Rep. Mikie Sherrill (NJ-11) 10. Rep. Pat Ryan, (NY-18) 11. Rep. Earl Blumenauer, (OR-3) 12. Rep. Hillary Scholten, (MI-3) 13. Rep. Greg Landsman, (OH-1) 14. Rep. Jim Hines, (CT-4) 15. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-3) 16. Rep. Ed Case (HI-1) 17. Rep. Eric Sorenson (IL-17) 18. Rep. Scott Peters (CA-50) 19. Rep. Greg Stanton (AZ-4) 20. Rep. Brad Schneider (IL-10) U.S. Senators (D) 1. Sen. Michael Bennet (CO) 2. Sen. Peter Welch (VT) Formerly in Politics (D) 1. Mayor Julian Castro (D-TX) (Sec HUD) 2. Rep. Tim Ryan (OH-23) (Vance won) Power Players (D) James Carville George Clooney 1
Vermillion Posted July 12 Posted July 12 15 hours ago, Ger said: Genuine question, why does Kamala have supposedly worse reputation than Biden? Which it's already very telling. Is it because of her erratic answers in most cases? Idk, to me she still feels under the radar, so her actions are not noticed. There's disagreement on this. Her slight bump upwards recently as well. The latter, I honestly am mostly attributing to just the desperation of the current situation. As for the impossible policy portfolio she was given, but also her own poor performance regardless of what Biden assigned to her, I've addressed a lot of that already.
Vermillion Posted July 12 Posted July 12 17 hours ago, GraceRandolph said: #RidinWithBiden and BlueMAGA be like... I need Biden 2024 overlaid on this a la 2016's iconic Jessica Lange GIFs
Space Cowboy Posted July 12 Posted July 12 I think Harris would win easily. All the women, the blacks and the asians would vote for her i think
Virgos Groove Posted July 12 Posted July 12 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Space Cowboy said: I think Harris would win easily. All the women, the blacks and the asians would vote for her i think You expect too much out of white women. But, yes, I think Kamala can win. Edited July 12 by Virgos Groove 2
Vermillion Posted July 12 Posted July 12 15 hours ago, 19SLAYty9 said: It's becoming more and more apparent that the reason Biden's team staffed Kamala's inner circle with Biden loyalists and refused to give her anything of substance was because they were threatened by her and knew he was going to be in deep trouble come re election. Did they intentionally sabotage her? Ding ding ding! We have a winner! (Although she didn't do herself much favors but has since improved after several brutal reports…)
bunnyeyes Posted July 12 Posted July 12 (edited) 2 hours ago, Vermillion said: Hindsight hypotheticals I normally don't engage with as wasted energy but since we're clearly approaching peak existential chaos I might as well. I also have direct tea on this having worked on the Hill in 2016 and I've been consistent in saying (and not as a Hillary fan or even close) that even if she invested in and visited the battleground states intensely a year in advance she still would've lost. By a closer margin in the Electoral College, but she still would've lost. There's about 20 reasons why that we can unpack if you have the energy. I don't at the moment. I've consistently also felt that moderates severely downplay Hillary's faults on this forum and progressives severely downplay the level of outside factors in 2016, some of which were in her control and some of which weren't. The problem is so many of those outside factors were relied upon so heavily by her defenders after the loss that many progressives don't bother engaging with enough of the data and facts on the ground on those outside factors as their (rightful) anger towards her and the damage she caused shuts down any conversation. Doctoral theses have been written now about Bernie implying Trump supporters weren't inherently racist, endless studies on racial resentment causing cultural displacement, Bill Clinton's lingering NAFTA and Crime Bill legacy damage, the 2016 primary that will forever divide the Democratic party, Oleg Deripaska, Alfa Bank, Manafort and the polling data, the Access Hollywood tape being ignored because Hillary chose to stay with Bill and shamed Bill's victims, James Comey, Cambridge Analytica demographic microtargeting of Obama-to-Trump voters, the 4Chan/GamerGate/incel-to-Trump pipeline, the coal comments, the bleached email server, Jill Stein at the table with Putin. We can spend twenty pages unpacking all off of the above but I'm tired. You can start if you wish. Oh, I don't want you to misunderstand; there were a lot of factors involved, don't want to simplify it down to her not visiting those states during though it certainly didn't help, and I was witness to so many frankly unhinged entitled and out of touch moments I am still in shock when I think about it. side note: I wonder if we know each other irl lmao Edited July 12 by bunnyeyes 1
Vermillion Posted July 12 Posted July 12 14 hours ago, GraceRandolph said: Wildly disingenuous given what's being alleged behind the scenes with his allies and what I can only assume will happen at the convention
Vermillion Posted July 12 Posted July 12 14 hours ago, Communion said: Not the most coherent parts of his speech being him lying about not giving Israel 2klb bombs yet he has sent and is literally still sending thousands? literally seeing nothing on this in the analysis today. no surprise, but still kind of soul crushing 1
byzantium Posted July 12 Posted July 12 1 hour ago, Redstreak said: They're gonna get us all killed I feel like the Biden administration is forcing us at gunpoint to go into the titanic submersible while "assuring" us that everything is fine. 2 1
Vermillion Posted July 12 Posted July 12 13 hours ago, Blade said: Like someone said before, dropping out the week of the RNC would be ideal. Virtually every speech would be messed up *bookmarks*
Vermillion Posted July 12 Posted July 12 11 hours ago, nadiamendell said: Yep. I've been noticing that it's been mostly conservatives or "former" republicans raving about his debate performance. 11 hours ago, ClashAndBurn said: I mean, this should be a sign that he's leading us down a path to ruin, but I guess we're committed to the bit. I don't need to see more than this. I mean, they've got internals indicating this as well. 11 hours ago, VOSS said: Someone needs to bribe Hunter ASAP to get in Daddy's ear about bowing out as nominee to save the country That this could still work
Vermillion Posted July 12 Posted July 12 4 hours ago, Redstreak said: @Vermillion what do you expect todays news cycle to be
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