Eternium Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 How are you going to ask someone to make predictions for you and then fume when they say there are too many factors to do it reasonably? Especially when we already have multiple sites that do it already OT: I’m expecting Camila to get at least a few hundred extra sales from her fansite that should help boost her. I bought three copies from there because her bundles were immaculate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
materialboy Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 Yesssss,the song got what it deserved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simmnfierzig Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 (edited) 20 minutes ago, ChartsFan said: Then you use those over and under estimates and learn patterns. You our seem to just want to focus on each thing I say and attempt to rip it apart. I've clearly stated each thing I've said, HDD, labels are all just some pieces of the puzzle that need to be all combined together. The more sources, the more data - then the more accurate. I'm certainly not going to sit here and list every source. I don't have that much time. just like when you do estimates. You use the data out there. Then you make extrapolations based on what you've seen over time. And just like when you do precious, sometimes one data point is too high, but another is too low, but it averages out to what you expected, look, the point isn't to get down to an exact copy sold but to be able to build out a top 20 so albums. 20 because that is what most people do for singles. but sure simm says it can't be done, so obviously nobody can possibly do it. I am gone, But to give you another serious answer. Yes I look at every word you say, because I really don't know what all the other sources you are talking about are. Sure we get same label estimates for high profile releases, but that's really not helpful... In the top 20 we have like 5 debuts a week on average and we have a high profile release where we get estimates early like that like once every couple of months. The thing is HDD has a lot more data available than we do and they still only give us some very raw estimates for new releases on Saturdays and some guess for top 20 on Tuesdays before their final chart on Fridays. Those early estimates from them aren't super accurate either and everything we would be able to do would be much worse Edited January 20, 2018 by simmnfierzig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixiedust Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 Do you think Ed announcing his engagement today is going to impact his radio audience enough to snatch back the #1 from Havana? I can see radio stations giving Perfect some extra spins when they’re talking about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GAGAISTHEBESTYA Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, Pixiedust said: Do you think Ed announcing his engagement today is going to impact his radio audience enough to snatch back the #1 from Havana? I can see radio stations giving Perfect some extra spins when they’re talking about it There are literally a day left for the tracking week... I don't think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mattyboy Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 13 minutes ago, Pixiedust said: Do you think Ed announcing his engagement today is going to impact his radio audience enough to snatch back the #1 from Havana? I can see radio stations giving Perfect some extra spins when they’re talking about it How many times do we have to answer this, Havana is predicted with any boosts and being conservative with steaming and sales, with me even radio AI. Me, @simmnfierzig, & @NoMythologies all predicted Havana to go #1 with a healthy lead, 20M AI are barely any points. And why would his engagement change radio? That would boost streaming and iTunes if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superbitch Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 1 hour ago, Eternium said: How are you going to ask someone to make predictions for you and then fume when they say there are too many factors to do it reasonably? Especially when we already have multiple sites that do it already OT: I’m expecting Camila to get at least a few hundred extra sales from her fansite that should help boost her. I bought three copies from there because her bundles were immaculate. Right. Such a weird reason to fume about some people are weird af. What was in the bundle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dussymob Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 51 minutes ago, Mattyboy said: How many times do we have to answer this, Havana is predicted with any boosts and being conservative with steaming and sales, with me even radio AI. Me, @simmnfierzig, & @NoMythologies all predicted Havana to go #1 with a healthy lead, 20M AI are barely any points. And why would his engagement change radio? That would boost streaming and iTunes if anything. They do too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eternium Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, Superbitch said: Right. Such a weird reason to fume about some people are weird af. What was in the bundle? https://camilacabello.shop.musictoday.com/store/ She had a ton of sweaters/jackets with “She Loves Control” on them, signed CD inserts and signed Havana posters. All of which came with free downloads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iHype. Posted January 20, 2018 Author Share Posted January 20, 2018 1 hour ago, simmnfierzig said: Bye Won't miss you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starkboy Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 nn what happened to this thread lemme read back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just a Gay on ATRL Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 Me rn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slw84 Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 3 hours ago, DangerousSwiftie said: can someone give me a cliff notes/brief summary on what went down last night? This is a charts statistics thread...it's fun to predict things but this is entertainment. There are more serious things going in life. Thanks @simmnfierzig for your updates. I always look forward to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slw84 Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 1 hour ago, Starkboy said: nn what happened to this thread lemme read back I just want the summary. None of us are employed by billboard/hdd...so we don't get paid for this stuff. Let's just have fun... But anyways pull through Camila Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cz! Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 Not the same member again. He's worse than a toothache ffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umich Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slw84 Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 37 minutes ago, DangerousSwiftie said: Someone asked Simm if he could predict albums, he said he couldn’t, and that one user started complaining about it. OMG Wow...not people acting like simm gets paid and is contractually obligated to satisfy requests mmm mmm mmm hopefully drake's new songs get some top 10 placement soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slw84 Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, umich said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JollyJoe Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 wait at IDGAF potentially debuting! SLAY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
britsjournals Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, slw84 said: can someone give me a cliff notes/brief summary on what went down last night? This is a charts statistics thread...it's fun to predict things but this is entertainment. There are more serious things going in life. Thanks @simmnfierzig for your updates. I always look forward to them. I asked Simm if there was any way possible of tracking album sales since I know he’s really good at tracking the Hot 100...Simm said no and that other user LOST IT on him, I feel bad it was just a question I had Edited January 20, 2018 by britsjournals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClashAndBurn Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 Just now, britsjournals said: I asked Simm if there was any way possible of tracking album sales since I know he’s really good at tracking the Hot 100...Simm said no and that other user LOST IT I feel bad it was just a question I had Not your fault. The other guy's just a habitual contrarian that likes to argue for the sake of arguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
family.guy123 Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 Give him a break. Alzheimer's symptoms can include things like being very confrontational and taking offence at the smallest of criticisms. One of my parents' friend would play cards with us and she would cheat. Whenever we would call her out on it she would throw her cards on the table and quit the game. I am very worried about that user. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slw84 Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 1 hour ago, family.guy123 said: Give him a break. Alzheimer's symptoms can include things like being very confrontational and taking offence at the smallest of criticisms. One of my parents' friend would play cards with us and she would cheat. Whenever we would call her out on it she would throw her cards on the table and quit the game. I am very worried about that user. you know what... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
genio Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 I hope Camila and Dua come through Happy for Halsey too! All very talented ladies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slw84 Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 1 minute ago, ChartsFan said: Don't worry, I don't have alzeimers or anything else. i just despise people that think they are God at something, and get all defensive when someone points out that they aren't the only ones that can do something, Simm might be good at doing oredoctions. He's hardly the only one on the internet that does them. He is the online they gets all defensive when you dare question his predictions, as he has done numerous times on the forum, and has even admitted himself. the point is sim dkmdt create predictions, and certainly doesn't know all the answers to predictions, and everyone needs to stop acting like he is. I know you don't. He was just being shady. Ok...this seems to have gone way left. Let's just move forward and appreciate those that take the time to do predictions and it's clear that album predictions won't be done on ATRL...at least my Simm. I'm curious to see how Drake does with his two news song but for now...pull through Havana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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