discussion Gen Z Men Of Color were D+5 in the November election, a significant decline from 2020

[Armani.]

Latino Men led the swing to Trump from Gen Z Men Of Color with a whopping R+51 swing going from 31% Trump in 2020 to now a very strong 56%. They are half the electorate for very young male POC so the implications are severe going forward.

 

Next were Gen Z Asian & Gen Z Black Men swinging much less compared to that, but still very severely in a trendline. 

 

For Black Men overall, the shift was limited to under 50 as Trump looks to get very slightly over 25% of Black Men under 50 nationwide. But 50+ Black Men blunted the shift to the extent that Trump is around 19% of overall Black Men this cycle, still an increase from 2020 when it was 12%.

 

For Latino Men, under 50 broke for Trump by double digits margins, while 50+ Latino Men were closer to statistically tied, which is still a shift from 2020 for the older group.

 

Gen Z Men Of Color (18 - 29) D+5

51% Kamala/46% Trump 

 

Latino Young Men(53% electorate) 

56% Trump/41% Kamala

 

Black Young Men(24% electorate)  

68% Kamala/30% Trump

 

Asian Young Men(14% electorate) 

61% Kamala/35% Trump

 

Other (9% electorate)

54% Kamala/43% Trump

 

Compared to 2020 - 

 

Gen Z Men Of Color (18 - 29) D+48
73% Biden/25% Trump

 

Latino Young Men(53% electorate) 
67% Biden/31% Trump

 

Black Young Men (24% electorate)
84% Biden/15% Trump

 

Asian Young Men (14% electorate) 
77% Biden/19% Trump

 

Other (9% electorate) 
73% Biden/24% Trump

 

My sources for my estimate - 

 

Precinct/Ecological Shifts for demographics of voters relative to 2020 (Yale/Decision Desk Data Analysis)

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/2024-election-updated-post-mortem-how-trump-won-shifting-donnini-vsmqe

 

Asian Specific Shifts - 

https://x.com/ZacharyDonnini/status/1890415710880530687

 

Black Voter Project Post Election Survey for Black Men Under 50 - 

https://x.com/blkprofcct/status/1902405921990701557

 

Overall Black Voter Project study -

https://blackvoterproject.com/2024-national-bvp-study

 

NYT swing estimate for overall voters - 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/25/upshot/democrats-trump-working-class.html

 

David Shor Data Analysis of Election -  https://x.com/davidshor/status/1902019229206905260

 

 

NAACP pre election poll -

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/one-four-us-black-men-under-50-support-trump-president-naacp-poll-finds-2024-09-13/

 

Telemundo Pre Election Poll - 

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-harris-trump-democrats-advantage-latino-voters-continues-shrink-rcna172686

 

AP Votecast/Tufts for Young Voters - https://circle.tufts.edu/2024-election#gender-gap-driven-by-young-white-men,-issue-differences

 

2024 CNN Exit Poll - 

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/national-results/general/president/20

 

2024 Fox News Analysis/AP Votecast -

https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2024/general-results/voter-analysis

 

2020 Baseline - 

 

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results/20

 

https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2024/general-results/voter-analysis

 

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/

 

https://catalist.us/whathappened2022/

 

https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/election-week-2020#vote-choice-by-age-and-by-race-and-ethnicity

[Space Cowboy]

There's an election thread for a reason.

[OnikaSlays]

Hm, weren't they claiming Gen Z men were becoming Conservative at alarming rates a few months ago?

[chiaroscuro]

I'm really not surprised that latino men went so hard for Trump. The countries many have immigrated from are conservative, catholic, homophobic, sexist, have toxic machismo culture, etc. so it's not surprising they switched to Republican the second they gained citizenship or were second gen.

 

And don't flame me, this needs to be acknowledged.

[Communion]

6 hours ago, Space Cowboy said:

There's an election thread for a reason.

Sister, someone making actual interesting analysis with research is in fact better of a forum contribution than whatever weird China red-baiting you decide to fill your time with. 

[Space Cowboy]

1 hour ago, Communion said:

Sister, someone making actual interesting analysis with research is in fact better of a forum contribution than whatever weird China red-baiting you decide to fill your time with. 

How is this thread interesting? It's already April. The election was in November, and we all know how it turned out and how badly the dems underperformed with certain demographics, we know that since pretty much right after the election. There's no need to make a new thread every week analyzing stats from an election that happened nearly six months ago, like we get it. Use the election thread.

[FlauntYourTeeth]

asian and black men showing intelligence 

[Bloo]

11 hours ago, Space Cowboy said:

There's an election thread for a reason.

There’s also an entire Civics section for a reason.