discussion Gen Z Men Of Color were D+5 in the November election, a significant decline from 2020

[Armani.]

Latino Men led the swing to Trump from Gen Z Men Of Color with a whopping R+51 swing going from 31% Trump in 2020 to now a very strong 56%. They are half the electorate for very young male POC so the implications are severe going forward.

 

Next were Gen Z Asian & Gen Z Black Men swinging much less compared to that, but still very severely in a trendline. 

 

For Black Men overall, the shift was limited to under 50 as Trump looks to get very slightly over 25% of Black Men under 50 nationwide. But 50+ Black Men blunted the shift to the extent that Trump is around 19% of overall Black Men this cycle, still an increase from 2020 when it was 12%.

 

For Latino Men, under 50 broke for Trump by double digits margins, while 50+ Latino Men were closer to statistically tied, which is still a shift from 2020 for the older group.

 

Gen Z Men Of Color (18 - 29) D+5

51% Kamala/46% Trump 

 

Latino Young Men(53% electorate) 

56% Trump/41% Kamala

 

Black Young Men(24% electorate)  

68% Kamala/30% Trump

 

Asian Young Men(14% electorate) 

61% Kamala/35% Trump

 

Other (9% electorate)

54% Kamala/43% Trump

 

Compared to 2020 - 

 

Gen Z Men Of Color (18 - 29) D+48
73% Biden/25% Trump

 

Latino Young Men(53% electorate) 
67% Biden/31% Trump

 

Black Young Men (24% electorate)
84% Biden/15% Trump

 

Asian Young Men (14% electorate) 
77% Biden/19% Trump

 

Other (9% electorate) 
73% Biden/24% Trump

 

My sources for my estimate - 

 

Precinct/Ecological Shifts for demographics of voters relative to 2020 (Yale/Decision Desk Data Analysis)

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/2024-election-updated-post-mortem-how-trump-won-shifting-donnini-vsmqe

 

Asian Specific Shifts - 

https://x.com/ZacharyDonnini/status/1890415710880530687

 

Black Voter Project Post Election Survey for Black Men Under 50 - 

https://x.com/blkprofcct/status/1902405921990701557

 

Overall Black Voter Project study -

https://blackvoterproject.com/2024-national-bvp-study

 

NYT swing estimate for overall voters - 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/25/upshot/democrats-trump-working-class.html

 

David Shor Data Analysis of Election -  https://x.com/davidshor/status/1902019229206905260

 

 

NAACP pre election poll -

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/one-four-us-black-men-under-50-support-trump-president-naacp-poll-finds-2024-09-13/

 

Telemundo Pre Election Poll - 

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-harris-trump-democrats-advantage-latino-voters-continues-shrink-rcna172686

 

AP Votecast/Tufts for Young Voters - https://circle.tufts.edu/2024-election#gender-gap-driven-by-young-white-men,-issue-differences

 

2024 CNN Exit Poll - 

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/national-results/general/president/20

 

2024 Fox News Analysis/AP Votecast -

https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2024/general-results/voter-analysis

 

2020 Baseline - 

 

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results/20

 

https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2024/general-results/voter-analysis

 

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/

 

https://catalist.us/whathappened2022/

 

https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/election-week-2020#vote-choice-by-age-and-by-race-and-ethnicity

[Space Cowboy]

There's an election thread for a reason.

[OnikaSlays]

Hm, weren't they claiming Gen Z men were becoming Conservative at alarming rates a few months ago?

[chiaroscuro]

I'm really not surprised that latino men went so hard for Trump. The countries many have immigrated from are conservative, catholic, homophobic, sexist, have toxic machismo culture, etc. so it's not surprising they switched to Republican the second they gained citizenship or were second gen.

 

And don't flame me, this needs to be acknowledged.

[Communion]

6 hours ago, Space Cowboy said:

There's an election thread for a reason.

Sister, someone making actual interesting analysis with research is in fact better of a forum contribution than whatever weird China red-baiting you decide to fill your time with. 

[Space Cowboy]

1 hour ago, Communion said:

Sister, someone making actual interesting analysis with research is in fact better of a forum contribution than whatever weird China red-baiting you decide to fill your time with. 

How is this thread interesting? It's already April. The election was in November, and we all know how it turned out and how badly the dems underperformed with certain demographics, we know that since pretty much right after the election. There's no need to make a new thread every week analyzing stats from an election that happened nearly six months ago, like we get it. Use the election thread.

[FlauntYourTeeth]

asian and black men showing intelligence 

[Bloo]

11 hours ago, Space Cowboy said:

There's an election thread for a reason.

There’s also an entire Civics section for a reason. 

[Phaunzie]

Well duh, Kamala & the democratic party left them to wayside and didn't try to secure this demographic. A demographic that the right has been securing since the Trump lost the election back in 2020. Let's be honest, they fumbled the bag with this one. 

[Smarticle]

and some of yall giving up your holes for these republican men

[Jay07]

38 minutes ago, Phaunzie said:

Well duh, Kamala & the democratic party left them to wayside and didn't try to secure this demographic. A demographic that the right has been securing since the Trump lost the election back in 2020. Let's be honest, they fumbled the bag with this one. 

I don't know what Democrats can do to reach these young men who have been blackpilled by their phones. They are the ones screaming about woke and DEI. 

[Phaunzie]

2 minutes ago, Jay07 said:

I don't know what Democrats can do to reach these young men who have been blackpilled by their phones. They are the ones screaming about woke and DEI. 

They could engage in counter propaganda. If the right is doing it and being successful, why try to do some propaganda to get back toward the centre, so we can get them to progressive politics. 

[Armani.]

On 4/3/2025 at 8:27 PM, Space Cowboy said:

How is this thread interesting? It's already April. The election was in November, and we all know how it turned out and how badly the dems underperformed with certain demographics, we know that since pretty much right after the election. There's no need to make a new thread every week analyzing stats from an election that happened nearly six months ago, like we get it. Use the election thread.

I don't make a thread every week and I've never made a thread specifically about the voting patterns of overall Gen Z Men Of Color either

 

And we didn't know exactly what happened, which is why Catalist & Pew Research still aren't out. AP Votecast Analysis & The CNN Exit Poll aren't even the same, but maybe you don't see the nuance of Trump winning 48% of overall Hispanic Men vs 54% of Hispanic Men for example. Or Trump winning 25% of overall Black Men vs 19%. 

[Genie in a Bottle]

Sweetie, that generation LITERALLY can't read (no pun intended) or do double digit math in their head.

Were you really expecting their politics to be based on any sort of logic?

Edited 22 hours ago by Genie in a Bottle

[Communion]

On 4/3/2025 at 8:27 PM, Space Cowboy said:

How is this thread interesting? It's already April. The election was in November, and we all know how it turned out and how badly the dems underperformed with certain demographics, we know that since pretty much right after the election. There's no need to make a new thread every week analyzing stats from an election that happened nearly six months ago, like we get it. Use the election thread.

I'm sorry but this is just electoral partisan brain-rot. You're dismissive and have knee-jerk reaction to this because you inherently view discussions about shifts in voting demographics as innately negative and dunking on Democrats because they're who factually have failed to capture voters in a meaningful way.

 

So you whine and complain over these discussion as a personal slight against Democrats as opposed to simply a continued examination of evolving data.

 

If you don't have exit polling and voting data interesting, you're more than free to not read it. 

 

But the bold is clearly not true when you have liberal, Blue MAGA partisans wanting to run the same candidate who just oversaw these historical shifts.

[swiftawaywithme]

This topic has been beaten to death. Yes, Trump won the manosphere demographic by appealing to the losers attracted to crypto, Joe Rogan, and space rockets. The Kamala campaign had no outreach to these people and underestimated their turnout.

[Bloo]

2 hours ago, swiftawaywithme said:

This topic has been beaten to death. Yes, Trump won the manosphere demographic by appealing to the losers attracted to crypto, Joe Rogan, and space rockets. The Kamala campaign had no outreach to these people and underestimated their turnout.

It’s not just that. Pretending that’s all there is to it is really only demonstrating a giant misunderstanding of the gravity of the issue. Democrats cynically clinging to and pandering to identity reductionist politics (e.g., “Black women will save America”, “check your privilege”) dabbled in this rhetoric of outright dismissing the economic plight of men. We have socialized men to be the breadwinners of society to support their wives and children. This is obvious a result of patriarchy and we can deconstruct it. But, when men have been raised to expect to be able to support their families and they’re struggling financially only to be told they’re inherently privileged and therefore need to be ignored in terms of policy in favor of visibly marginalized groups of people? Then, yes, there will be a natural shift to the right among this demographic. Universal policies that benefit everyone (e.g., raising the minimum wage, universal healthcare) would naturally include marginalize people without alienating people who are not visibly marginalized but are still struggling financially.

 

The Democrats, instead, chose to run campaigns on policy like, “I commit to increasing the number of Pell grants given to Black women that are first generation college students if they commit to starting their own business upon graduating to create new jobs.” This is so technocratic and exclusive that only a select few people qualify. This is why much of their focus is on serving Black students via only focusing HBCUs even though the majority of Black students do not attend HBCUs. 
 

The mid 2010s was an era plagued by terrible privilege politics where most were not able to adequately speak to the nuance of the issue. That era only focused on identity and didn’t interweave with class as it should. I’m Black and gay and, despite that, I would not swap lives with a poor, uneducated straight White man struggling to pay rent. Why? Well, I am very well-educated in a good field. But, with a pure identitarian lens, I’m the more marginalized. This mindset is why we have lost so many men. 
 

The most hilarious and ironic example of this is actually Joe Rogan himself. I’ve never been a fan of him one way or the other. But, in 2019 he came out and endorsed Bernie Sanders and said he liked how consistent Bernie was and how genuine he seemed. It was a very tepid, simple endorsement. How did the Democrats respond? They called it proof that Bernie only appealed to bigoted, White “bros” and that the endorsement only showed how Bernie could never represent the real base of the party, Black women. Now? Democrats are panicking about how they don’t have their own Joe Rogan. 
 

Black women are important, of course. All marginalized people are and we should advocate for everyone. However, doing it by socially weaponizing them up against other demographic groups or using them to undercut other demographics is woefully unhelpful. All it does is further fuel cultural divides. 
 

All of that to say, claiming that the only reason men fled the party is because of Joe Rogan is a bad take because it doesn’t place due credit on the strategic failures of the party itself that led to this phenomenon. 

[swiftawaywithme]

32 minutes ago, Bloo said:

It's not just that. Pretending that's all there is to it is really only demonstrating a giant misunderstanding of the gravity of the issue. Democrats cynically clinging to and pandering to identity reductionist politics (e.g., "Black women will save America", "check your privilege") dabbled in this rhetoric of outright dismissing the economic plight of men. We have socialized men to be the breadwinners of society to support their wives and children. This is obvious a result of patriarchy and we can deconstruct it. But, when men have been raised to expect to be able to support their families and they're struggling financially only to be told they're inherently privileged and therefore need to be ignored in terms of policy in favor of visibly marginalized groups of people? Then, yes, there will be a natural shift to the right among this demographic. Universal policies that benefit everyone (e.g., raising the minimum wage, universal healthcare) would naturally include marginalize people without alienating people who are not visibly marginalized but are still struggling financially.

 

The Democrats, instead, chose to run campaigns on policy like, "I commit to increasing the number of Pell grants given to Black women that are first generation college students if they commit to starting their own business upon graduating to create new jobs." This is so technocratic and exclusive that only a select few people qualify. This is why much of their focus is on serving Black students via only focusing HBCUs even though the majority of Black students do not attend HBCUs. 
 

The mid 2010s was an era plagued by terrible privilege politics where most were not able to adequately speak to the nuance of the issue. That era only focused on identity and didn't interweave with class as it should. I'm Black and gay and, despite that, I would not swap lives with a poor, uneducated straight White man struggling to pay rent. Why? Well, I am very well-educated in a good field. But, with a pure identitarian lens, I'm the more marginalized. This mindset is why we have lost so many men. 
 

The most hilarious and ironic example of this is actually Joe Rogan himself. I've never been a fan of him one way or the other. But, in 2019 he came out and endorsed Bernie Sanders and said he liked how consistent Bernie was and how genuine he seemed. It was a very tepid, simple endorsement. How did the Democrats respond? They called it proof that Bernie only appealed to bigoted, White "bros" and that the endorsement only showed how Bernie could never represent the real base of the party, Black women. Now? Democrats are panicking about how they don't have their own Joe Rogan. 
 

Black women are important, of course. All marginalized people are and we should advocate for everyone. However, doing it by socially weaponizing them up against other demographic groups or using them to undercut other demographics is woefully unhelpful. All it does is further fuel cultural divides. 
 

All of that to say, claiming that the only reason men fled the party is because of Joe Rogan is a bad take because it doesn't place due credit on the strategic failures of the party itself that led to this phenomenon. 

Well yes! Well put. 

I do hope new leadership emerges on the left (in the likes of Bernie and AOC who would actually advocate for universal policies), but I remain cynical with how many times D's have fumbled the bag on messaging and leveraging their power. D's trip over their own ass when it comes to idpol and actively push away the Bernies and AOCs of the party, making it so easy for Trump and Rogan types to fill the vacuum of despair by not focusing on the larger issues, of course.

Edited 19 hours ago by swiftawaywithme

[Armani.]

On 4/3/2025 at 8:29 PM, FlauntYourTeeth said:

asian and black men showing intelligence 

Nnnn a 70/30 split is still terrible for our standards nationally It just looks okay since the entire demo swung so far right in a trendline which is kind of inevitable with the young Latino shift.

 

That said, it would be much better in the swing states. It looks like Trump got only 9% at most of the overall Black Vote in Georgia for example, so Gen Z Black Men were probably around 20% Trump there.