charts discussion HDD teases ~500k first week debut for Morgan Wallen's upcoming album I'm The Problem

[Feanor]

 

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PROBLEM SOLVERS: One exception to the hip-hop trend: Morgan Wallen, who is making inroads with two cuts from his forthcoming album (more successfully at Apple than at Spotify, so far). We expect considerably more disruption from the country superstar, who has thus far been unable to break rap's renewed grip on the streaming leaderboards, when his 37-track I'm the Problem lands on 5/16. Will the album—the rollout of which includes day-and-date three-LP vinyl sets priced to move at $30—score a first-week total in the neighborhood of 500k?

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HDD

 

Here we go again…

[TedMiracle]

[Mezik]

37 Tracks?

 

C'mon Taylor, now's the time to release girl and help save us.

[Peak Now]

  Reveal hidden contents

It's gonna be higher than 500k, his last album opened with 501k without vinyls and his stock has only risen since then

 

 

[Aethereal]

The cover looks pretty, I don't consume his music tho. 

 

Just discovered that he was in jail?

[Katamari]

30+ track albums every two years is some crazy work ethic I guess

 

i wonder if this will do better since he has more listenable songs on this album compared to the last……

[bielneira]

He will dominate Billboard 200 for a few weeks I guess

[Robyn.]

No shade, but this really puts into perspective that maybe we should NOT focus on sales when it comes to measuring popularity.  

 

Because Morgan Wallen is outselling every pop girl's first week known to existence bar Taylor, but nobody will claim he is bigger than a Beyoncé for instance.

 

 

[Aethereal]

He is gonna block Lana and Miley again. 

[Aethereal]

  On 3/27/2025 at 7:56 PM, Robyn. said:

 

 

Because Morgan Wallen is outselling every pop girl's first week known to existence bar Taylor, but nobody will claim he is bigger than a Beyoncé for instance.

 

 

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Isn't he like huge in streaming? 

 

Vinyl catalog sales shows that you're more than just a TikTok trend, but yeah pure sales are now 100% irrelevant. 

Edited March 27 by Aethereal

[crf13]

  On 3/27/2025 at 7:56 PM, Robyn. said:

No shade, but this really puts into perspective that maybe we should NOT focus on sales when it comes to measuring popularity.  

 

Because Morgan Wallen is outselling every pop girl's first week known to existence bar Taylor, but nobody will claim he is bigger than a Beyoncé for instance.

 

 

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This! It also just highlights how tasteless the general public is. 

[Robyn.]

  On 3/27/2025 at 7:59 PM, crf13 said:

This! It also just highlights how tasteless the general public is. 

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Like nobody is breaking their heels to see Morgan Wallen perform in stadiums all over the world...

 

Yet he's selling 500k first week... 

Like do units even matter at this point

[Jpkun]

We need reputation

[anti-bitch]

  On 3/27/2025 at 7:55 PM, bielneira said:

He will dominate Billboard 200 for a few weeks I guess

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More like this whole year.  Morgan's last album from 2 years ago is still in Top 10. And the previous from 4 years ago in Top 20. 

[UnusualBoy]

Big numbers but somehow it's weird they're not bigger? Like he's basically the biggest male right and 2nd biggest act overall in the states and his biggest first week is 500k? but I assume he makes up for that with the huge longevity of his albums but at same time since the streaming era only a handful of acts have opened with more than 600k.

[family.guy123]

  On 3/27/2025 at 7:56 PM, Robyn. said:

No shade, but this really puts into perspective that maybe we should NOT focus on sales when it comes to measuring popularity.  

 

Because Morgan Wallen is outselling every pop girl's first week known to existence bar Taylor, but nobody will claim he is bigger than a Beyoncé for instance.

 

 

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I would say he's bigger than Beyoncé at the moment. 
 

Taylor too, but mentioning that gets users here upset 

[cat1867]

  On 3/27/2025 at 8:15 PM, family.guy123 said:

I would say he's bigger than Beyoncé at the moment. 
 

Taylor too, but mentioning that gets users here upset 

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Taylor  usually moves more total units than him each week 

But yes , his recent albums are bigger than hers 

[family.guy123]

  On 3/27/2025 at 8:03 PM, Robyn. said:

Like nobody is breaking their heels to see Morgan Wallen perform in stadiums all over the world...

 

Yet he's selling 500k first week... 

Like do units even matter at this point

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All over the world? No. But this thread is about American charts and he is performing in stadiums. (In Canada too) 

 

To answer your question, no I don't believe units matter anymore ever since they started trying to convert streams to sales. Chart performances , however, still matter 

[pride4jc1222]

  On 3/27/2025 at 7:54 PM, Aethereal said:

The cover looks pretty, I don't consume his music tho. 

 

Just discovered that he was in jail?

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No, that's Lil Durk, who releases his album Deep Thoughts tonight.

[Robyn.]

  On 3/27/2025 at 8:15 PM, family.guy123 said:

I would say he's bigger than Beyoncé at the moment. 

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But he isn't... That's my point...

 

Having high first week sales or units ain't an accurate factor to measure popularity.

Is he having a smash hit trending in the world? Is he a household name globally? etc.

 

He check none of those... He's no global superstar, and yet his sales are massive.

So yeah, maybe units have been a silly metric all along.  

 

[Theluckyone]

He's going to sell a lot- he has a huge base and his last two albums did really well. I think 500k is guaranteed, and might even trend up depending on the reception to his subsequent singles / promo. 

[beyonceparkwood]

Praying for a 'Taylor Swift announces Reputation (Taylor's Version) to release on May 16th. Preorders now available!'

[anti-bitch]

  On 3/27/2025 at 8:12 PM, UnusualBoy said:

Big numbers but somehow it's weird they're not bigger? Like he's basically the biggest male right and 2nd biggest act overall in the states and his biggest first week is 500k? but I assume he makes up for that with the huge longevity of his albums but at same time since the streaming era only a handful of acts have opened with more than 600k.

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The album is like 2 months away from release. So it's pretty pointless to even speculate what the numbers will be, even from HDD.

[family.guy123]

  On 3/27/2025 at 8:21 PM, Robyn. said:

But he isn't... That's my point...

 

Having high first week sales or units ain't an accurate factor to measure popularity.

Is he having a smash hit trending in the world? Is he a household name globally? etc.

 

He check none of those... He's no global superstar, and yet his sales are massive.

So yeah, maybe units have been a silly metric all along.  

 

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Well, again, we're talking about an American chart, so let's keep it American. 
 

He currently has like 5 songs in the Top 20 and one of the longest #1s of all time. The most successful album of all time in the states, etc etc

 

How exactly are you measuring Beyoncé's popularity? 
 

Beyoncé is my #1 so I'm no hater, just realistic 

[Archetype]

Taylor please save us