official chart Billboard Charts (June 25 - July 1, 2017)

[LCTV]

Idk how Talking Body & Worth It weren't Top 10 they were everywhere

[Mariano]

26 minutes ago, ClashAndBurn said:

Million Reasons and Chained To The Rhythm weren't all that strong, and weren't really all that deserving of a top three placement based on their overall weak performances.

what even ?

 

My point is that the lead that MR had over the number 2 digital song would've been enough 5 years ago, to make it debut in top 3.  Has nothing to do with what you're saying. 

 

Kesha's We are who we are (for example) wouldn't debut at number 1 if it was released today and had the same lead in digital sales. 

[One Nation]

3 minutes ago, Mariano said:

what even ?

 

My point is that the lead that MR had over the number 2 digital song would've been enough 5 years ago, to make it debut in top 3.  Has nothing to do with what you're saying. 

 

Kesha's We are who we are (for example) wouldn't debut at number 1 if it was released today and had the same lead in digital sales. 

Well obviously not since streaming is included.

 

What he's saying (I think) is that the spike you're referring to here was a direct result of being discounted and having the SB in the same week. The fact that the song spent only one week within the Top 10 shows how weak it was in comparison to even Wild Thoughts at this point. CTTR did fare better, but not by much. I don't expect to see either song near the top half of the year end charts. CTTR has a small chance since it did decently on streaming.

Edited June 27, 2017 by One Nation

[Mariano]

5 minutes ago, One Nation said:

Well obviously not since streaming is included.

 

What he's saying (I think) is that the spike you're referring to here was a direct result of being discounted and having the SB in the same week. The fact that the song spent only one week within the Top 10 shows how weak it was in comparison to even Wild Thoughts at this point. CTTR did fare better, but not by much. I don't expect to see either song near the top half of the year end charts. CTTR has a small chance since it did decently on streaming.

I'm gonna be nice and just say that you and the other guy need to stop for a second, not everything is about stan wars and comparisons and so on.  What you and him are talking about had nothing to do with my post, which was simply a comment on how it's harder to debut in the top 3 nowadays (even with the way WT is smashing) and how times have changed and how there were several songs debuting/peaking at number 4 in recent times.  I never said or indicated that WT is doing similarly to CTTR/MR. 

Nothing more or less  

[ClashAndBurn]

"Wild Thoughts" could have debuted top 3, but the fact is that the current top 3 is just abnormally strong. I don't think it would have debuted top 2 when CTTR was released, though, because it would have had to compete with "Shape Of You" and "Bad and Boujee."

 

"Million Reasons" had the sales edge,yes, but it was largely due to its discount + Super Bowl exposure. Radio support was unfortunately lackluster. Probably would have been better if "Perfect Illusion" had just... never happened, but c'est la vie...

 

CTTR didn't even have that strong of a debut, so it was sorta lucky that it came out when it did.

[Sinister]

10 hours ago, RihsusChrist(ATG) said:

I really wanted "Lights" by Ellie Goulding to go #1...it had such a slow climb up the charts, but got blocked @ #2 by damn Flo-rida

Kinda the same thing with "Radioactive" by Imagine Dragons...it deserved to go #1 as well after clawing its way up the Hot 100 even though it peaked @ #3.

 

Not to mention the #1's that got away by Rihanna had she or her collaborator promoted, or discounted their sh*t! 

Stay, 45S, TIWYCF, LOTB being examples...

 

 

 

@umich

wasn't Flo but... 

[Mariano]

4 minutes ago, ClashAndBurn said:

"Wild Thoughts" could have debuted top 3, but the fact is that the current top 3 is just abnormally strong. I don't think it would have debuted top 2 when CTTR was released, though, because it would have had to compete with "Shape Of You" and "Bad and Boujee."

 

"Million Reasons" had the sales edge,yes, but it was largely due to its discount + Super Bowl exposure. Radio support was unfortunately lackluster. Probably would have been better if "Perfect Illusion" had just... never happened, but c'est la vie...

 

CTTR didn't even have that strong of a debut, so it was sorta lucky that it came out when it did.

but what does any of this have to do with anything ?  Especially the fact that MR had a discount, superbowl etc.  ?  What does it have to do with anything   Literally off topic as hell. 

 

The fact that competition is different at different times and that peaks don't mean as much, cuz some song could've peaked at number 2 and be bigger than other number 2 peaking songs etc.  is a known fact.

 

My post simply mentioned that recently big debuts tend to result in a number 4 position, Harry Styles too etc. 

and those big debuts would've resulted in a higher position back in the day.   (2011 for example). 

[Roberto]

1 hour ago, QueenBLadyG said:

Some of these songs really deserved better! Catch My Breath!!!!  

Yes, Catch My Breath totally deserved the Top 10. That song is pop perfection. 

[Starkboy]

15 minutes ago, Mariano said:

but what does any of this have to do with anything ?  Especially the fact that MR had a discount, superbowl etc.  ?  What does it have to do with anything   Literally off topic as hell. 

 

The fact that competition is different at different times and that peaks don't mean as much, cuz some song could've peaked at number 2 and be bigger than other number 2 peaking songs etc.  is a known fact.

 

My post simply mentioned that recently big debuts tend to result in a number 4 position, Harry Styles too etc. 

and those big debuts would've resulted in a higher position back in the day.   (2011 for example). 

This makes no sense tbh. Cause MR and CTTR hadnt strong debuts at all. And they wouldnt have debuted higher in the past. 

I see its still hard to accept that itunes doesnt play a big part anymore. Big streaming makes a song have a big debut. Katy and Gaga both lacked it. 

[Remixed]

MR passed 1 million sales? Now that is impressive   definitely deserves its top 5 peak

Edited June 27, 2017 by Remixed

[Riha'love]

Talking about MR and CTTR in the first place was useless since Wild Thoughts will outperform both.

[Witnessed ET]

8 hours ago, SweetTalker said:

Mess it'll be 2013 all over again   Radioactive/Believer slaying during the summer, and then Demons/Thunder smashing months later after their initial push  

Yeah but Demons was actually good though...I just cant get into that Thunder song and its just so monotonous with no substance.

[Mariano]

21 minutes ago, Starkboy said:

This makes no sense tbh. Cause MR and CTTR hadnt strong debuts at all. And they wouldnt have debuted higher in the past. 

I see its still hard to accept that itunes doesnt play a big part anymore. Big streaming makes a song have a big debut. Katy and Gaga both lacked it. 

again it's not about CTTR and MR.  Maybe these 2 songs were lucky that the competition was weak etc. 

 

My point was that WT for example is smashing radio and streaming and the sales are good too.  Definitely would've normally debuted in the top 3.

And for example I don't understand how Bruno is still top 3 really ... 

[Mariano]

20 minutes ago, Riha'love said:

Talking about MR and CTTR in the first place was useless since Wild Thoughts will outperform both.

but I never said that it won't or talked about their success or anything.  I just said that we used to have number 1 number 2 debuts before and now the strong debuts result in number 3 or number 4 which is a result of the current formula of the hot 100 which allows songs to have too much points (especially the big ones) and blocking bigger debuts. 

I don't believe that WT was less popular last week than Bruno's That's what I like. 

 

[Klein]

2 minutes ago, Mariano said:

but I never said that it won't or talked about their success or anything.  I just said that we used to have number 1 number 2 debuts before and now the strong debuts result in number 3 or number 4 which is a result of the current formula of the hot 100 which allows songs to have too much points (especially the big ones) and blocking bigger debuts. 

I completely get what you're saying, and you're right. But I think that debuts are not as high as they were before thanks to a better calculation of the popularity of the songs. 

I mean, back in early 2010s, a huge fanbase was enough to send a song straight to number 1, even if the song clearly did not clicked with the GP (see Hold It Against Me). Now, with streaming, I think that we have a better measure of the real popularity of a song. And as a result, songs rarely debut at the top of the charts because they are NOT the most popular of the week. The majority of the GP won't know a song the first week of its release if they are not music fans like us or if they don't turn on the radio for the whole week. 

[One Nation]

18 minutes ago, Klein said:

I completely get what you're saying, and you're right. But I think that debuts are not as high as they were before thanks to a better calculation of the popularity of the songs. 

I mean, back in early 2010s, a huge fanbase was enough to send a song straight to number 1, even if the song clearly did not clicked with the GP (see Hold It Against Me). Now, with streaming, I think that we have a better measure of the real popularity of a song. And as a result, songs rarely debut at the top of the charts because they are NOT the most popular of the week. The majority of the GP won't know a song the first week of its release if they are not music fans like us or if they don't turn on the radio for the whole week. 

!!!!

[Starkboy]

30 minutes ago, Mariano said:

but I never said that it won't or talked about their success or anything.  I just said that we used to have number 1 number 2 debuts before and now the strong debuts result in number 3 or number 4 which is a result of the current formula of the hot 100 which allows songs to have too much points (especially the big ones) and blocking bigger debuts. 

I don't believe that WT was less popular last week than Bruno's That's what I like. 

As we needed strong sales to debut #1 in, let's say, 2011, we need strong streaming to debut #1 nowadays.

SOY and I'm the One debuted #1 this year. CSTF! and Pillowtalk last year.

 

#1 debuts each year:

 

2009 : one

2010 : two

2011 : two

2012 : one

2013 : one

2014 : one

2015 : two

2016 : two

2017 : two

 

seems fair to me  

 

 

32 minutes ago, Mariano said:

again it's not about CTTR and MR.  Maybe these 2 songs were lucky that the competition was weak etc. 

 

My point was that WT for example is smashing radio and streaming and the sales are good too.  Definitely would've normally debuted in the top 3.

And for example I don't understand how Bruno is still top 3 really ... 

The truth is that the current top3 (top4) is very strong right now. It happens. Sometimes there's weak competition, something a strong one.

As for Bruno, radio has been a hot100 component for a while. It's still very big there (currently #1) plus it's showing great longevity in the other components (#2 on Youtube for example). it's still very popular as we speak.

[simmnfierzig]

39 minutes ago, Klein said:

I completely get what you're saying, and you're right. But I think that debuts are not as high as they were before thanks to a better calculation of the popularity of the songs. 

I mean, back in early 2010s, a huge fanbase was enough to send a song straight to number 1, even if the song clearly did not clicked with the GP (see Hold It Against Me). Now, with streaming, I think that we have a better measure of the real popularity of a song. And as a result, songs rarely debut at the top of the charts because they are NOT the most popular of the week. The majority of the GP won't know a song the first week of its release if they are not music fans like us or if they don't turn on the radio for the whole week. 

Exactly 

[B-Rabbit]

Post at #8 

[Mariano]

53 minutes ago, Klein said:

I completely get what you're saying, and you're right. But I think that debuts are not as high as they were before thanks to a better calculation of the popularity of the songs. 

I mean, back in early 2010s, a huge fanbase was enough to send a song straight to number 1, even if the song clearly did not clicked with the GP (see Hold It Against Me). Now, with streaming, I think that we have a better measure of the real popularity of a song. And as a result, songs rarely debut at the top of the charts because they are NOT the most popular of the week. The majority of the GP won't know a song the first week of its release if they are not music fans like us or if they don't turn on the radio for the whole week. 

yeah you have a point indeed. 

 

But then again I believe WT was more popular last week than "That's what I like" 

[simmnfierzig]

Early predictions

 

1 Despacito     736  (=)

2 I'm The One     408  (=)

3 That's What I Like     388 (=)  

4 Wild Thoughts     378  (=)

5 Shape Of You     310  (=)

6 Believer     305  (+5)

7 Humble     284  (-1)

8 Congratulations     252 (=)  

9 Stay     239  (+1)

10 Something Just Like This     239  (-1)

11 Body Like A Back Road     239  (+2)

12 Mask Off     227  (-5)

13 Redbone     225  (+1)

14 Unforgettable     224 (+2) 

15 XO Tour Lif3     212  (-3)

16 Issues     201  (-1)

17 There's Nothing Holdin Me Back     192  (+2)

18 Now Or Never     186  (+3)

19 Say You Won't Let Go     186 (-2)  

20 It Ain't Me     181  (-2)

21 Bad Liar     160  (-1)

22 Slow Hands     156 (+2) 

23 Malibu     154  (-1)

 

40 Signs 104 (debut)

[Mariano]

45 minutes ago, Starkboy said:

As we needed strong sales to debut #1 in, let's say, 2011, we need strong streaming to debut #1 nowadays.

SOY and I'm the One debuted #1 this year. CSTF! and Pillowtalk last year.

 

#1 debuts each year:

 

2009 : one

2010 : two

2011 : two

2012 : one

2013 : one

2014 : one

2015 : two

2016 : two

2017 : two

 

seems fair to me  

 

 

The truth is that the current top3 (top4) is very strong right now. It happens. Sometimes there's weak competition, something a strong one.

As for Bruno, radio has been a hot100 component for a while. It's still very big there (currently #1) plus it's showing great longevity in the other components (#2 on Youtube for example). it's still very popular as we speak.

yeah you are right.  But maybe they should tone down Radio a bit too then. 

[Starkboy]

10 minutes ago, simmnfierzig said:

Early predictions

 

1 Despacito     736  (=)

2 I'm The One     408  (=)

3 That's What I Like     388 (=)  

4 Wild Thoughts     378  (=)

5 Shape Of You     310  (=)

6 Believer     305  (+5)

7 Humble     284  (-1)

8 Congratulations     252 (=)  

9 Stay     239  (+1)

10 Something Just Like This     239  (-1)

11 Body Like A Back Road     239  (+2)

12 Mask Off     227  (-5)

13 Redbone     225  (+1)

14 Unforgettable     224 (+2) 

15 XO Tour Lif3     212  (-3)

16 Issues     201  (-1)

17 There's Nothing Holdin Me Back     192  (+2)

18 Now Or Never     186  (+3)

19 Say You Won't Let Go     186 (-2)  

20 It Ain't Me     181  (-2)

21 Bad Liar     160  (-1)

22 Slow Hands     156 (+2) 

23 Malibu     154  (-1)

 

40 Signs 104 (debut)

 Believer being the only relevant change. 

I'd not mind Bruno staying another week at #3  WT can jump #2 in two weeks anyway

[Klein]

20 minutes ago, Mariano said:

yeah you have a point indeed. 

 

But then again I believe WT was more popular last week than "That's what I like" 

Radio: 

BRUNO MARS - That's What I Like: 191.700 (numbers from today but I don't know if it was that much different 2 days ago)

DJ KHALED F/RIHANNA/B.TILLER - Wild Thoughts: 49.841

 

Spotify: 

Wild Thoughts: 8,281,574

That's What I Like: 4,911,910

(Those numbers are from the last kworb update, so the gap was probably smaller during the first week of WT)

 

So basically:

- WT had less than twice the amount of streams than TWIL

- TWIL had almost 4 times the amount of AI 

WT may have done better on iTunes, but pure sales are low so there isn't much difference between the two songs. 

Edited June 27, 2017 by Klein

[simmnfierzig]

3 minutes ago, Klein said:

Radio: 

BRUNO MARS - That's What I Like: 191.700 (numbers from today but I don't know if it was that much different 2 days ago)

DJ KHALED F/RIHANNA/B.TILLER - Wild Thoughts: 49.841

 

Spotify: 

Wild Thoughts: 8,281,574

That's What I Like: 4,911,910

(Those numbers are from the last kworb update, so the gap was probably smaller during the first week of WT)

 

So basically:

- WT had less than twice the amount of streams than TWIL

- TWIL had almost 4 times the amount of AI 

WT may have done better on iTunes, but pure sales are low so there isn't much difference between the two songs. 

Streaming for the week

Wild Thoughts 36.3M and TWIL around 30M (have it at 30.7M)

 

Wild Thoughts 89k sales and TWIL ~30k is a huge difference