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Hot 100 predictions (11/30): Die with a Smile #1 (2pts lead over #2)


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Posted
6 hours ago, Luckitty said:

the streaming era made the charts so boring during november & december

 

 every chart watcher i know thinks the same.. maybe one day holiday songs won't be allowed to chart on the hot 100 

Why not? Charts should always be about what people are actually consuming not just to make Gay stans happy that chappal rome is #1 without doing anything 

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Posted
50 minutes ago, Green said:

 

But "That's So True" has very poor airplay support so far. It's gonna take some time before it reaches "A Radio Song" airplay and Shaboozey is gonna get a massive increase after the year-end countdowns, so he will still be #1 on Radio Songs in January.

 

Gracie could be #1 in mid-January, but the first #1 of the year will probably be Shaboozey just like Post Malone's Circles returned to #1 in January of 2020.

 

 

Difference is Circles was a 'fresh' #1 (as were the other songs that returned to #1 after the holiday break), having just overtaken Someone You Loved and was still gaining on radio. ABS is at over 30 weeks charting (and #1 on the Hot 100 for 18+ weeks and Canada for 25+ weeks), is recurrent on its main radio formats, and is being challenged by the songs behind it (you didn't see this in other years). ABS will be nearing 40 charting weeks when we get to January, and keep in mind, it won't have the promo that it is getting these next 2 weeks.

 

Expecting ABS to be #1 in January is like expecting the Mike Tyson that fought Trevor Berbick in 1986 to show up last Friday night against Jake Paul. It's just not going to happen.

Posted
44 minutes ago, pride4jc1222 said:

Difference is Circles was a 'fresh' #1 (as were the other songs that returned to #1 after the holiday break), having just overtaken Someone You Loved and was still gaining on radio. ABS is at over 30 weeks charting (and #1 on the Hot 100 for 18+ weeks and Canada for 25+ weeks), is recurrent on its main radio formats, and is being challenged by the songs behind it (you didn't see this in other years). ABS will be nearing 40 charting weeks when we get to January, and keep in mind, it won't have the promo that it is getting these next 2 weeks.

 

Expecting ABS to be #1 in January is like expecting the Mike Tyson that fought Trevor Berbick in 1986 to show up last Friday night against Jake Paul. It's just not going to happen.

 

well I hope it doesn't happen, that song should have left the #1 weeks ago already

It's down to #5 on streaming and still #1 on the Hot 100 because of radio 

 

Billboard Streaming Songs:

1. That's So True

2. Die with a smile

3. Birds of a feather

4. Love somebody

5. A Bar Song

 

https://www.billboard.com/charts/streaming-songs/

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Posted

A Bar Song will go back to #1 after Shaboozey appears on Beyoncé's Halftime on Christmas day, watch. :gayorkcat2:

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Posted

But didn't Brenda stomp on her last time? i think Rockin will just get stronger this year

Posted

For reference, here's the charting weeks of the songs that returned to #1 after the holiday season:

 

Lovin on Me - 8

Anti-Hero - 11

Easy on Me - 13

Mood - 21

Circles - 18

 

A Bar Song would be at 38 charting weeks after the holiday season on the 1/11/2025 chart.

 

32 minutes ago, Draper. said:

A Bar Song will go back to #1 after Shaboozey appears on Beyoncé's Halftime on Christmas day, watch. :gayorkcat2:

Keep in mind, only one song has reached #1 during the holiday season (when Willow blocked AIWFCIY).

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Posted

JINGLE a bit then queen 

Posted

in a perfect world DWAS would take #1 this week and Mariah the next one, staying there until january. Ms. Lee already got her flowers last year so RATct can chill this season, Mariah need her record back. 

 

Regarding 2025's first new #1, I'm not so sure A Radio Song can survive that long. Every year until now the song that was at #1 before xmas returned in january, but we've never had such a long #1 right before xmas. I can see DWAS getting it, since it's yet to peak on radio and it has a very xmas friendly sound. 

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Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, pride4jc1222 said:

Keep in mind, only one song has reached #1 during the holiday season (when Willow blocked AIWFCIY).

But Christmas day is on a Wednesday, and Christmas songs disappear the day after. If he appears on the Halftime the effect will be reflected on that weekend's numbers which are already for the first week of 2025, which includes New Year's Eve which he will probably benefit from with performances or year-end playlists.

Edited by Draper.
Posted
5 minutes ago, Draper. said:

But Christmas day is on a Wednesday, and Christmas songs disappear the day after. If he appears on the Halftime the effect will be reflected on that weekend's numbers which are already for the first week of 2025, which includes New Year's Eve which he will probably benefit from with performances or year-end playlists.

The Billboard tracking week is Friday-Thursday.

 

So, the Christmas tracking week would be Friday 12/20 to Thursday 12/26.

 

Christmas songs would get the first 6 days of that week + one declining day (and those numbers will still be substantial). It's 12/27 when the numbers fall off.

 

Most of Shaboozey's boost would be on Thursday 12/26, which won't be enough to overcome 6+ days of Christmas.

Posted
4 hours ago, Radical Pessimism said:

Pls that's not her in the cover. Be serious, mariah 

It's not? Then who's this? 

 

 

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Posted
9 hours ago, Katamari said:

really?

 

this early :deadbanana4:

its Christmas in like four weeks wdym "early" :deadbanana4:

Posted

with streaming getting bigger every year , eventually Xmas songs are going to hit #1 right after Halloween 

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Posted
2 hours ago, pride4jc1222 said:

The Billboard tracking week is Friday-Thursday.

 

So, the Christmas tracking week would be Friday 12/20 to Thursday 12/26.

 

Christmas songs would get the first 6 days of that week + one declining day (and those numbers will still be substantial). It's 12/27 when the numbers fall off.

 

Most of Shaboozey's boost would be on Thursday 12/26, which won't be enough to overcome 6+ days of Christmas.

Again, the boost if it happens is not gonna last just one single day.

Posted
37 minutes ago, Draper. said:

Again, the boost if it happens is not gonna last just one single day.

Maybe 2 days, but the 2nd day would be Friday, which would push into the next tracking week. The numbers should return close to normal by Day 3. Anyways, the CMA's are tomorrow night, so we'll have a similar situation and a good idea of what a potential boost would look like.

Posted
3 hours ago, naval23 said:

with streaming getting bigger every year , eventually Xmas songs are going to hit #1 right after Halloween 

Doubt

Posted

Cmon Bruno we're rooting for you. It's time to release you own solo version for that guarantee #1 :coffee2:

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Posted
4 hours ago, fridayteenage said:

Doubt

Well in 2016 you probably didn't think Brenda would ever hit #1 and here we are

 

Time the ultimate truth teller

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Posted

That's So True is making another attempt to end A Bar Song's 25-week run at #1 on the Canadian Hot 100: 

 

 

Posted

Shaboozey will tie the record this week, then it's AIWFCIY and closer to Christmas it'll be RATCT, then Shaboozey will be back for at least one week, which included New Years, to break the record. DWAS MIGHT be after that, but the charts will be super weak that first week of January after New Years. AIWFCIY will likely have to wait until next year to time or break Shaboozey's record, but it will eventually. 

Posted
11 minutes ago, scottydog said:

Shaboozey will tie the record this week, then it's AIWFCIY and closer to Christmas it'll be RATCT, then Shaboozey will be back for at least one week, which included New Years, to break the record. DWAS MIGHT be after that, but the charts will be super weak that first week of January after New Years. AIWFCIY will likely have to wait until next year to time or break Shaboozey's record, but it will eventually. 

If Shaboozey is to break the record, I think it has to be these next 2 weeks. It's already at over 30 charting weeks. Songs are challenging it in both the US and Canada, most notably That's So True. I can't see it holding off all those songs for 7 more weeks and returning to #1 at nearly 40 charting weeks old. That's So True is probably going to be the #1 after the holidays.

Posted
1 hour ago, pride4jc1222 said:

That's So True is making another attempt to end A Bar Song's 25-week run at #1 on the Canadian Hot 100: 

 

 

 

Wait I thought Gracie was already #1 there lol but Shaboozey blocked her? I guess predictions were wrong :rip: 

 

I would be pissed if I liked That's So Basic but I don't really care about that song.

Posted

That's So True is already fading. The end of year charts and New Years parties will boost Shaboozey for one week after Christmas. 

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