Armani? Posted October 13 Posted October 13 Black Men have faced scrutiny lately as the former president Obama has came on the campaign trail telling the "brothas" especially to stop making excuses and vote for Kamala, while also noting a perceived lack of enthusiasm and accusations of misogyny which may both be partly true But why specifically Black men? Well the Trump campaign and Republicans generally have been eyeing making inroads with Black men for a while now, and introducing propaganda into the discourse for a while now that has now been dramatized by media outlets that was present preswap despite Biden slipping considerably with every single demographic, not only Black men. Spoiler But is Kamala losing Black male support relative to Biden this year? Polling suggests that is not true, but the opposite. Kamala has improved with Black men on the ticket since the swap - Biden April 2024 Ipsos/Post Poll Likely Voters - Black Men 73% Biden/18% Trump https://www.washingtonpost.com/tablet/2024/05/03/april-9-16-2024-washington-post-ipsos-poll-black-americans/ Kamala August Ipsos/Post Poll Likely Voters - Black Men 80% Kamala (+7) /16% Trump (-2) Black Voter Project https://blackvoterproject.com/2024-national-bvp-study Black Men Apr : Biden - 75%, Trump 20% Aug : Kamala 80%(+5), Trump 18% (-2) There are few Black voter polls since the debate but national polls suggest the trend did not stop before the debate, But still the Harris campaign appears to be, at least partially in panic mode with only 20 days till the election to erase all of Trump's gains with all minorities accumulated over Biden's presidency, not just limited to Black men although they were made as an example nationally. 3 8
LegaMyth Posted October 13 Posted October 13 (edited) I was wrong before, but I'm glad to see this. Trump literally says he wants full immunity for police officers. That is absolutely INSANE. What's going on is the loud voices that speak out against Kamala. They never mention policies. They only mention their hate for LBGT, immigrants, and women leaders. Edited October 13 by LegaMyth 1 5
Joey307 Posted October 13 Posted October 13 Trump did have a lot of minority voters vote for him in 2016 so really anything is possible but this is still good to see
AlanRickman1946 Posted October 13 Posted October 13 4 minutes ago, DAP said: No thanks to the ventriloquist coon Obama 1 3 1
Letters From Adi Posted October 13 Posted October 13 Don't trust opinion polls, people. Many say one thing on survey and then vote the other way around.
Armani? Posted October 13 Author Posted October 13 16 hours ago, Joey307 said: Trump did have a lot of minority voters vote for him in 2016 so really anything is possible but this is still good to see His minority share actually was pretty small in 2016. 6% of the electorate just voted 3rd party or had poor turnout for Hilary Hilary had a higher percent of minority voters than Biden technically
modeblock Posted October 13 Posted October 13 Thank you for compiling this. It was so refreshing to see Kamala stay away from FIRST WOMAN PRESIDENT messaging, that it came as a surprise when Obama was seen scolding the 2nd most supportive group about their supposed misogyny, as if Kamala were the perfect candidate. I wish my latino bros were as aligned with Kamala, the numbers for latino men supporting Trump are very disappointing and downright pathetic. 2
Armani? Posted October 14 Author Posted October 14 4 hours ago, modeblock said: Thank you for compiling this. It was so refreshing to see Kamala stay away from FIRST WOMAN PRESIDENT messaging, that it came as a surprise when Obama was seen scolding the 2nd most supportive group about their supposed misogyny, as if Kamala were the perfect candidate. I wish my latino bros were as aligned with Kamala, the numbers for latino men supporting Trump are very disappointing and downright pathetic. They're in the 50s% now for Dems, Democrats suck at messaging. Even though that's low, that wont be improved by finger waving to them either nnn. There's so many compelling ways to appeal to demographics yet they always find themselves in the entitled/scolding lane. They may be wanting to overcompensate also 1
modeblock Posted October 14 Posted October 14 50 minutes ago, Armani? said: They're in the 50s% now for Dems, Democrats suck at messaging. Even though that's low, that wont be improved by finger waving to them either nnn. There's so many compelling ways to appeal to demographics yet they always find themselves in the entitled/scolding lane. They may be wanting to overcompensate also That is just ABSURD, like, but then again didn't Biden team specifically say they didn't need latinos to win in 2020? and now we have to deal with a toss up because of how bad things are with latinos? am I getting that right or?
i spit on haters Posted October 14 Posted October 14 Thank you for all your input, @Armani?. As a Black male myself, I'll never understand those voting republican. Esp. a candidate like Trump. I have my many issues with the democratic party but that doesn't mean I then turn around and support fascism and align myself with the very same people who would want me dead or out of what they consider to be 'their' country.
Armani? Posted October 15 Author Posted October 15 23 hours ago, modeblock said: That is just ABSURD, like, but then again didn't Biden team specifically say they didn't need latinos to win in 2020? and now we have to deal with a toss up because of how bad things are with latinos? am I getting that right or? In Arizona definitely, since she can't even afford a 1 pt slippage from 2020 with Hispanic voters or it will flip if she doesn't gain with White voters It's close asf, and will probably just down to turnout. 1
Armani? Posted October 15 Author Posted October 15 This November it will be their "red wave" of the last midterms
Armani? Posted October 18 Author Posted October 18 https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/harris-black-men-voters-trump-polls-rcna175807 Quote The Democrats' Black voter crisis is overblown Political scientists say that history and the data doesn't support the narrative that a mass defection of Black men to Trump is imminent. But Democrats ought to tune out Trump's taunting and not panic. The general outlook of the political scientists I spoke to is that there isn't enough reliable data to suggest that Harris is facing an emergency situation with Black voters. In fact, they pointed out that there are indicators that Harris could be on track to match Biden's performance in 2020. (On average, exit polls found that Biden received the support of 87% of Black voters, while Trump received 12%.) That's not to say that Harris should take the Black vote for granted or that she should neglect targeted outreach in Black communities. But fixating on questionable data over how much of the Black male vote she'll get can distract from a lot of bigger issues that the party is facing. A lot of the alarmist headlines are based on comparisons of previous elections to this year's polls. That's comparing apples and oranges: Polls are deeply flawed tools for predicting turnout. Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020 overperformed with Black voters compared to polls prior to the election, said Christopher Towler, a professor at Sacramento State University who runs the Black Voter Project. Part of the reason is that polling captured sentiment from Black voters who were less supportive of Democrats but also less likely to vote. That very well could be happening this time as well.Another issue is that a lot of the national polls involve extrapolating off a relatively small number of Black respondents. It cannot be ruled out that Harris could underperform Biden with Black voters, and Black men in particular. But that might be the wrong way to look at the issue, considering other trends in Democrats hemorrhaging voters. Harris seems to be performing worse among men overall than Biden was earlier in the race, according to successive New York Times-Siena polls. And Democrats continue to struggle to find a way to fight off Trump's domination among non-college-educated voters. Focusing on small percentage drops of Black men — the population of voters who turn out second only to Black women in supporting Democrats — may obscure the bigger, more worrying trend lines that Democrats face. Based on what we know, it's blinkered to argue that the Democrats' crisis is with Black voters. Either way, with the tight margins of the race, Harris' ability to generate high Black turnout will be crucial. That means making sure to spend more resources on targeting Black voters with the right messaging and get-out-the-vote operations. Neither history nor the evidence, however, suggests Trump's support from Black men is anywhere close to going through the roof.
Mezter Posted October 19 Posted October 19 I hope this is true and that their just a very LOUD minority
Armani? Posted October 19 Author Posted October 19 On 10/19/2024 at 6:11 PM, Mezter said: I hope this is true and that their just a very LOUD minority Just based on those 2 polls(and Howard which I didnt post since there wasn't a preswap one that I remember), she would be expected to get 81% of Black men predebate. Edit- I'm seeing Black Men Pac also had Trump at 17% in August. Biden got 84/85% on avg in 2020 for different exit polls. Black Voter Project is supposed to update again before the election. If it falls to 16% for Trump, she's on track to roughly match Biden since Ipsos/Post was 16% in predebate (this assumes their methodology would have it fall to 14%). All of this is heavily in margin of error at that point so 1
Armani? Posted October 27 Author Posted October 27 BlackPac Poll for October in Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania Black Men - 84% Kamala - 9% Trump https://blackpac.com/poll/ 2020 Edison/NYT Exit Polls for Black Men North Carolina - 91% Biden/8% Trump Pennsylvania - 89% Biden/10% Trump Georgia - 83% Biden/16% Trump Avg by population - 87% Biden/13% Trump
Armani? Posted October 29 Author Posted October 29 NAACP Poll specifically Black Men Under 50 Support for Trump Early August - 27%/26% https://www.reuters.com/world/us/one-four-us-black-men-under-50-support-trump-president-naacp-poll-finds-2024-09-13/ October - 21%(-5/-6) https://naacp.org/articles/new-naacp-data-displays-progress-reaching-black-male-voters-shifts-key-attitudes-and
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