Kern Posted March 17 Posted March 17 I'm trying so hard to keep my mouth shut but y'all really bored 1
wastedpotential Posted March 17 Posted March 17 47 minutes ago, dobrevv said: anybody know from which thread is this djflsdkffdsfdjlks okay this changes the math for my estimates If they ordered enough TTPD to last all year, and they were already aiming for it to double Midnights and it was a super ambitious printing, and if they're already having stock issues because there are too many pre-orders, then I do genuinely think we have a shot for that record. Probably not in pure, but in SPS, the total record is a possibility. Spoiler Spoiler Spoiler Spoiler Spoiler Spoiler If your criticism of the following numbers is not rooted in numerical fact and supported by evidence, then you may as well not share it Spoiler I've seen credible estimates that I'm not yet willing to share from people who would actually know that ~950k vinyl have been ordered so far (150k target, ~350k std., 150k of the remaining variants, and I'd assumed that was off an order of 2M, but Midnights had a 2M vinyl total order and this apparently had a bigger order that was supposed to last the year, and that would probably be in the neighborhood of 3M. Still, assuming understocking issues that may threaten its ability to last all year, that makes me think Republic is anticipating at least a 1.5M vinyl opening (remember, it is RSD weekend and my delulu numbers are coming from 950k already sold, so 550k+ first week seems reasonable), on top of a 650k CD sales week (Midnights did 400k and didn't have strong stock or a big signed CD campaign, which I'm assuming this will). Assuming just a smidge of streaming growth gets us to 500k SEA (Midnights did 420k, and this is a very conservative estimate), plus the same 160k digital and 20k TEA, and that gets us 2.83M, and that's with conservative SEA and vinyl estimations, and doesn't consider that she might really try to gun for that record once she sees how close she is with digital discounts and throwing together some limited merch bundles (which are now approved again). 3.34M Pure is probably out of the cards, but 3.48M SPS seems... within the realm of possibility 2 1
The Music Industry Posted March 17 Posted March 17 11 minutes ago, wastedpotential said: djflsdkffdsfdjlks okay this changes the math for my estimates If they ordered enough TTPD to last all year, and they were already aiming for it to double Midnights and it was a super ambitious printing, and if they're already having stock issues because there are too many pre-orders, then I do genuinely think we have a shot for that record. Probably not in pure, but in SPS, the total record is a possibility. Hide contents Hide contents Hide contents Hide contents Hide contents Hide contents If your criticism of the following numbers is not rooted in numerical fact and supported by evidence, then you may as well not share it Hide contents I've seen credible estimates that I'm not yet willing to share from people who would actually know that ~950k vinyl have been ordered so far (150k target, ~350k std., 150k of the remaining variants, and I'd assumed that was off an order of 2M, but Midnights had a 2M vinyl total order and this apparently had a bigger order that was supposed to last the year, and that would probably be in the neighborhood of 3M. Still, assuming understocking issues that may threaten its ability to last all year, that makes me think Republic is anticipating at least a 1.5M vinyl opening (remember, it is RSD weekend and my delulu numbers are coming from 950k already sold, so 550k+ first week seems reasonable), on top of a 650k CD sales week (Midnights did 400k and didn't have strong stock or a big signed CD campaign, which I'm assuming this will). Assuming just a smidge of streaming growth gets us to 500k SEA (Midnights did 420k, and this is a very conservative estimate), plus the same 160k digital and 20k TEA, and that gets us 2.83M, and that's with conservative SEA and vinyl estimations, and doesn't consider that she might really try to gun for that record once she sees how close she is with digital discounts and throwing together some limited merch bundles (which are now approved again). 3.34M Pure is probably out of the cards, but 3.48M SPS seems... within the realm of possibility I- 1
SpeakNowTv Posted March 17 Posted March 17 if i hit play on fortnight and i hear a synth instead of a guitar... 4 1 7
Klein Posted March 17 Posted March 17 17 minutes ago, wastedpotential said: djflsdkffdsfdjlks okay this changes the math for my estimates If they ordered enough TTPD to last all year, and they were already aiming for it to double Midnights and it was a super ambitious printing, and if they're already having stock issues because there are too many pre-orders, then I do genuinely think we have a shot for that record. Probably not in pure, but in SPS, the total record is a possibility. Reveal hidden contents Hide contents Hide contents Hide contents Hide contents Hide contents If your criticism of the following numbers is not rooted in numerical fact and supported by evidence, then you may as well not share it Hide contents I've seen credible estimates that I'm not yet willing to share from people who would actually know that ~950k vinyl have been ordered so far (150k target, ~350k std., 150k of the remaining variants, and I'd assumed that was off an order of 2M, but Midnights had a 2M vinyl total order and this apparently had a bigger order that was supposed to last the year, and that would probably be in the neighborhood of 3M. Still, assuming understocking issues that may threaten its ability to last all year, that makes me think Republic is anticipating at least a 1.5M vinyl opening (remember, it is RSD weekend and my delulu numbers are coming from 950k already sold, so 550k+ first week seems reasonable), on top of a 650k CD sales week (Midnights did 400k and didn't have strong stock or a big signed CD campaign, which I'm assuming this will). Assuming just a smidge of streaming growth gets us to 500k SEA (Midnights did 420k, and this is a very conservative estimate), plus the same 160k digital and 20k TEA, and that gets us 2.83M, and that's with conservative SEA and vinyl estimations, and doesn't consider that she might really try to gun for that record once she sees how close she is with digital discounts and throwing together some limited merch bundles (which are now approved again). 3.34M Pure is probably out of the cards, but 3.48M SPS seems... within the realm of possibility At least you are optimistic tonight. 4
wastedpotential Posted March 17 Posted March 17 1 minute ago, Klein said: At least you are optimistic tonight. Oh don't worry, I'm sure this time next week I'll have revised down to 1.1M with a chance of 30-level plastic in the oceans misaligned label expectations 1
Lille Posted March 17 Posted March 17 I'm going to choose to believe all these sales estimates are fact. If they do not come true the only explanation is shenanigans. #StopTheSteal #MATA #ImpeachBillboard 5
Redstreak Posted March 17 Posted March 17 12 minutes ago, SpeakNowTv said: if i hit play on fortnight and i hear a synth instead of a guitar... And when you hear both? 2
By the Water Posted March 17 Posted March 17 The quick change of tone But yeah, this is quite believable considering they actually removed the variants from her website instead of just keeping them like with Midnights 2
wastedpotential Posted March 17 Posted March 17 7 minutes ago, By the Water said: The quick change of tone But yeah, this is quite believable considering they actually removed the variants from her website instead of just keeping them like with Midnights Hey now I've always been delusionally optimistic as to how this was going to do But yeah, the fact that they removed the stock numbers from public view really does track with the idea that they didn't want to be embarrassed in case they ordered too many
Kern Posted March 17 Posted March 17 Dropping whole essay on Midnights lore won’t make its production any better 1 2 2
TaylorNation Posted March 17 Posted March 17 4 hours ago, Klein said: Lover 2.0 (aka TS12) on December 13th it is then 7
Michael196 Posted March 17 Posted March 17 5 hours ago, wastedpotential said: Spitballing here, but if TTPD era is decently sized, then I could see her dropping TSTV at the end of this year, then dropping Reputation some time in Q2 2025, and then TS12 in Q4 2025, in time for TS13 sometime in 2026 (20 years of her career) Just checked and the 20th anniversary of Tim falls on a friday, if she dares to drop TS13 on my 30th, I’ll be seeing her in court 1
Feanor Posted March 17 Posted March 17 Not the sudden… … based on a screenshot of an obscure Reddit post that no one has actually found so far.
Holiest Dreams Posted March 17 Posted March 17 3 minutes ago, Feanor said: Not the sudden… … based on a screenshot of an obscure Reddit post that no one has actually found so far. Oh no. What ever would we do if we didn’t have you trying to convince us on every single page that she’s over, the album is gonna tank, there’s no hype, etc? At least some of us are actually making predictions grounded in reality (reliable insiders’ numbers which were legitimately tracked, her team not restocking the variants on her site, etc)… unlike some users who keep trying to tell us the album will tank based on nothing but vibes that don’t exist. 10
Redstreak Posted March 17 Posted March 17 1 hour ago, stupidjock said: Dropping whole essay on Midnights lore won’t make its production any better It keeps you talking about THEE AOTY tho ❤️ 3
BlackJesus Posted March 17 Posted March 17 4 minutes ago, Magickarp said: 4 days, 4 hours, 20 minutes Until what exactly?
Magickarp Posted March 17 Posted March 17 17 minutes ago, BlackJesus said: Until what exactly? The next countdown 2 8
ElectricStyle Posted March 18 Posted March 18 not gonna post any links here but i’m hoping that fortnight leak on twitter isn’t real … sounds like an AI generated midnights scrap
scottstreet Posted March 18 Posted March 18 5 minutes ago, ElectricStyle said: not gonna post any links here but i’m hoping that fortnight leak on twitter isn’t real … sounds like an AI generated midnights scrap babe i think you’re a few weeks late 2
Hunter_13 Posted March 18 Posted March 18 1 hour ago, Holiest Dreams said: Oh no. What ever would we do if we didn’t have you trying to convince us on every single page that she’s over, the album is gonna tank, there’s no hype, etc? At least some of us are actually making predictions grounded in reality (reliable insiders’ numbers which were legitimately tracked, her team not restocking the variants on her site, etc)… unlike some users who keep trying to tell us the album will tank based on nothing but vibes that don’t exist. Clock it 2
scottstreet Posted March 18 Posted March 18 Sooo… the first Midnights Mayhem With Me tiktok was posted on Sep. 21, exactly one month before Midnights. Are we expecting some cute promo to start in 2 days?
Sprawl Posted March 18 Posted March 18 How many times do we have to tell people that UMG would nuke any real "leak" within 5 minutes anywhere 3
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