wastedpotential Posted March 5 Posted March 5 Just now, cat1867 said: Is it Over Now just hit #1 on pop radio. It will likely get dropped hard now that that's achieved but it was a proper radio smash. I don't think it's going to pull a Look What You Made Me Do and literally set records on its way down, but I do agree that the push to the top was... intentional (I mean it randomly starting to gain 300-400 spins per day in the last few days before hitting #1 after weeks of slow gains wasn't exactly covert), and that it'll probably start losing again relatively quickly. The thing in its favor now is that a lot of the top 10 is already declining, or is stagnant at best, and this has a 1700 spin bullet to burn through before it gets the real damaging losses, and the only songs in the top 10 that are gaining now (Feather and Lose Control) are 4000+ spins back. The final push to #1 came from being placed on Power Rotation across several stations, and the likely path forward here is that it'll just be taken off PR in a couple weeks and left to float in the 50-70 spins per week range across most stations. IION probably has 2-3 weeks at #1 and then another 3-4+ weeks in the top 10 just because it's unlikely to start losing faster than LOM, Greedy, or Agora Hills; unless it starts to fall hard, which, given the lack of songs to give those spins to, doesn't seem too likely, and then because the rest of the top 10 is also in free fall and the likely successors (THE, Beautiful Things, Stick Season) won't be in a threatening place for weeks. It'll have to drop from ~16k spins to ~9k spins to fall out of the top 10 and hit recurrency, and that will take time. If we're lucky, that's enough time for IION to clench the H100 Year End top 25, and for the TTPD lead to begin rocketing up the pop charts.
ZeroPoint Posted March 5 Posted March 5 Do we think there’s going to be a Target bonus track or would that have been announced by now?
cat1867 Posted March 5 Posted March 5 7 minutes ago, wastedpotential said: I don't think it's going to pull a Look What You Made Me Do and literally set records on its way down, but I do agree that the push to the top was... intentional (I mean it randomly starting to gain 300-400 spins per day in the last few days before hitting #1 after weeks of slow gains wasn't exactly covert), and that it'll probably start losing again relatively quickly. The thing in its favor now is that a lot of the top 10 is already declining, or is stagnant at best, and this has a 1700 spin bullet to burn through before it gets the real damaging losses, and the only songs in the top 10 that are gaining now (Feather and Lose Control) are 4000+ spins back. The final push to #1 came from being placed on Power Rotation across several stations, and the likely path forward here is that it'll just be taken off PR in a couple weeks and left to float in the 50-70 spins per week range across most stations. IION probably has 2-3 weeks at #1 and then another 3-4+ weeks in the top 10 just because it's unlikely to start losing faster than LOM, Greedy, or Agora Hills; unless it starts to fall hard, which, given the lack of songs to give those spins to, doesn't seem too likely, and then because the rest of the top 10 is also in free fall and the likely successors (THE, Beautiful Things, Stick Season) won't be in a threatening place for weeks. It'll have to drop from ~16k spins to ~9k spins to fall out of the top 10 and hit recurrency, and that will take time. If we're lucky, that's enough time for IION to clench the H100 Year End top 25, and for the TTPD lead to begin rocketing up the pop charts. For me, I think her team will let it fall to create more breathing room for the TTPD lead single . Both it and Cruel Summer need to die to give TTPD lead single a chance of being another mega smash. 3
19SLAYty9 Posted March 5 Posted March 5 4 minutes ago, ZeroPoint said: Do we think there’s going to be a Target bonus track or would that have been announced by now? Wasn’t midnights announced less than a month before?
wastedpotential Posted March 5 Posted March 5 Just now, cat1867 said: For me, I think her team will let it fall to create more breathing room for the TTPD lead single . Both it and Cruel Summer need to die to give TTPD lead single a chance of being another mega smash. nnnnn for what it's worth, I think her team pretty much threw this one out to Radio PDs once they realized it had better traction than "****!" and didn't even spare it a second thought until about 4 days ago when they saw it was within striking range of #1 (perhaps they sent out another round of mugs ). 99% of the progress it's made has been on account of it being a Taylor Swift™ song with a strong hook that could be slotted in during every hour they weren't playing Cruel Summer, so even if her team wanted to pull IION back to create an air gap for the next single, I don't think PDs would listen I'm with you in that having a nice month+ break between Taylor hits would be a smart play for the sake of the listening public, but I have a sneaking feeling that the TTPD lead will literally replace IION in playlist slots at a 1:1 rate
Saint James Posted March 5 Posted March 5 3 minutes ago, wastedpotential said: I'm with you in that having a nice month+ break between Taylor hits would be a smart play for the sake of the listening public, but I have a sneaking feeling that the TTPD lead will literally replace IION in playlist slots at a 1:1 rate oh guaranteed. Cruel Summer is the one we need to be worried about, because IION didn’t really catch on outside of the fanbase despite the good stats. CS is still very actively in public consciousness right now, and if her next song is soft like Willow, Cardigan and AH then they’ll just keep CS for another summer i think it’d be wise to dial back on the taylor spins to give everyone a breather, but like you said they have nothing else to replace it with other than Beyonce
Klein Posted March 5 Posted March 5 24 minutes ago, wastedpotential said: I don't think it's going to pull a Look What You Made Me Do and literally set records on its way down, but I do agree that the push to the top was... intentional (I mean it randomly starting to gain 300-400 spins per day in the last few days before hitting #1 after weeks of slow gains wasn't exactly covert), and that it'll probably start losing again relatively quickly. The thing in its favor now is that a lot of the top 10 is already declining, or is stagnant at best, and this has a 1700 spin bullet to burn through before it gets the real damaging losses, and the only songs in the top 10 that are gaining now (Feather and Lose Control) are 4000+ spins back. The final push to #1 came from being placed on Power Rotation across several stations, and the likely path forward here is that it'll just be taken off PR in a couple weeks and left to float in the 50-70 spins per week range across most stations. IION probably has 2-3 weeks at #1 and then another 3-4+ weeks in the top 10 just because it's unlikely to start losing faster than LOM, Greedy, or Agora Hills; unless it starts to fall hard, which, given the lack of songs to give those spins to, doesn't seem too likely, and then because the rest of the top 10 is also in free fall and the likely successors (THE, Beautiful Things, Stick Season) won't be in a threatening place for weeks. It'll have to drop from ~16k spins to ~9k spins to fall out of the top 10 and hit recurrency, and that will take time. If we're lucky, that's enough time for IION to clench the H100 Year End top 25, and for the TTPD lead to begin rocketing up the pop charts. Watch Cruel Summer get those spins back. I'm sorry this might be delusional but this song's performance on radio and streaming is just plain stupid at this point so I would barely be surprised.
Klein Posted March 5 Posted March 5 Anyway I'm just waaaaaaaaay too excited about this album. There's so many answers I need. What period of two weeks is being discussed on Fortnight? A great time or the first break in the glass? What is The Tortured Poets Department really about? What will Florida!!! be about? Is it going to be "oh my god I'm free and can have a blast with the crowd" or "thank god the crowd is here to help me through this horrible time"? Why is loml not spelled out? What does it mean? Who's accountability is being discussed on Guilty As Sin? Is Clara Bow going to reveal a positive or negative outview on her celebrity status? So many questions.... 3
Squall Posted March 5 Posted March 5 Can she just release Sweeter Than Fiction TV on Spotify? I still haven't listened to it. 2
wastedpotential Posted March 5 Posted March 5 22 minutes ago, Klein said: Watch Cruel Summer get those spins back. I'm sorry this might be delusional but this song's performance on radio and streaming is just plain stupid at this point so I would barely be surprised. I mean, in terms of pop radio, Cruel Summer went recurrent a couple weeks ago, and it's almost impossible to re-enter (I think it needs a certain gain rate above a certain chart or spin position, maybe someone better informed knows the exact thresholds), so I've pretty much written it off on the radio, and now I'm just hoping it spends another week in the H100 top 10 However, if any Taylor song was going to beat radio recurrency, it would be Cruel ******* Summer
Fama Posted March 5 Posted March 5 1 hour ago, Bartender said: here's how i see it April 2024: TTPD September 2024: Rep TV (to compensate for not originally releasing it on an even number year) March 2025: Debut TV (around the same time Fearless TV was released to close the rerecords chapter) sometime 2025: Eras Tour/Rerecords documentary or docu-series or she just takes a break until TS12 2026: TS12 + Superbowl My prediction: April 2024: TTPD May 2024: TS12 December 2024: end of tour 2025: feature film, Rep TV, Debut TV Late 2026: Comeback with TS13 2 1
Sprawl Posted March 5 Posted March 5 12 minutes ago, Fama said: May 2024: TS12 Now sis of course I would love to get another folk-more punch because new music is always welcome, but May? Let’s wait at least 6 months 1 1
Shoful Posted March 5 Posted March 5 4 hours ago, Burqa said: that it’s made by the same people as DWOHT and it was registered after the album release Oh she’s definitely scrapping that **** then. I’m sure we’ll get Vigilante **** 2.0 instead
Fama Posted March 5 Posted March 5 1 minute ago, Sprawl said: Now sis of course I would love to get another folk-more punch because new music is always welcome, but May? Let’s wait at least 6 months TS12 is most likely about Travis. She will not release an album about him during the NFL season. Therefore, she will either release it before July/August 2024 or after February 2025. I believe she started working on TS12 in August 2023 and probably has enough material to release an album. I don't think she wants to wait until March 2025 to release it. That's why I think she will release it between TTPD and late June 2024. And since she loves epic moments, I think she's aiming for the scenario in which she releases TTPD and then casually announces that the next album will drop shortly after 1
1989 Posted March 5 Posted March 5 Can we just talk about how hard I WON with the surprise songs that are included in the Eras release? I Can See You, Maroon, and DBATC? Like, I knew it was coming but to actually see it- 1
every1blinks Posted March 5 Posted March 5 2 hours ago, Maroon legacy said: I also tried to make a gif with og cover, but it sucked I’m sure it looked like a demon possession 2
Dear Reader Posted March 5 Posted March 5 2 minutes ago, every1blinks said: I’m sure it looked like a demon possession I kinda wanna see it now 1
Hunter_13 Posted March 5 Posted March 5 16 minutes ago, 1989 said: Can we just talk about how hard I WON with the surprise songs that are included in the Eras release? I Can See You, Maroon, and DBATC? Like, I knew it was coming but to actually see it- I'm so glad I Can See You will now be witnessed by the GP. Such a bop 2
1989 Posted March 5 Posted March 5 1 minute ago, Hunter_13 said: I'm so glad I Can See You will now be witnessed by the GP. Such a bop As a fanbase, we moved on too quickly from this masterpiece. I have been saying it and will continue to say iT 4
Club classic Posted March 5 Posted March 5 I preordered all the vinyl variants and I have a really good feeling about this record
Lille Posted March 5 Posted March 5 This is the first time she got me to buy another variant (other than the main album cover) in a while, the Black Dog cover is perfect. She got me, she got me good. 3
MidnightsAtPeace Posted March 5 Posted March 5 why are you all even talking about ts12??? we haven't even listened to ts11 yet stop being greedy 1
every1blinks Posted March 5 Posted March 5 14 minutes ago, Dear Reader said: I kinda wanna see it now @Maroon legacy well
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