discussion Largest 2024 election study to date predicts victory for Trump if election held today

[Chemist]

1 hour ago, Zaram said:

Trump winning during these times could have some really bad consequences for the world politic.

I'm mostly scared about climate change because he is going to give massive subsidies to the oil and gas industry.

Say what you want to say about Biden but his admin has put the US as a world leader in renewables (due to the IRA)

[Dr. Alexander]

Didn’t they just say this and then the Democrats literally took over the election two weeks ago? 

[applestar]

Only boomers take polls, next

[Communion]

3 hours ago, Dr. Alexander said:

Didn’t they just say this and then the Democrats literally took over the election two weeks ago? 

I do wonder how people like this make it through life trying to rationalize away basic facts in front of them to the point of ignorance and being misinformed.

 

"the election" - which? The KY Governor race? That Polls accurately predicted? Surely not the MS Governor race, which they lost as polls similarly predicted? 

Do you mean the VA legislature races? Where polls accurately predicted a slight Dem win, which.. is what happened? With a +1 majority in each chamber?

Or do you think referendums that are run as non-partisan policy issues and not attached to any political party winning - as polls predicted - help Democrat?

 

It's genuinely jarring how people become vastly into anti-intellectualism when the huge amount of their identity Ithey've placed into elections can't be reconciled.

[45seconds]

Israel-Hamas isn’t going to affect Joe Biden all the way into next year November. As sad as that is. 
 

It’ll be the economy. If inflation is back to normal and Trump becomes Trump again (and democrats get ptsd) he’ll barely scrape out a win. 

[magazine]

isn't trump in prison? 

[feelslikeadream]

5 hours ago, Chemist said:

I don't think Trump is winning PA. The rest seems likely at this point

I was wondering that too, but I live in PA and if the election were held today, I wouldn't vote for Genocide Joe, so

 

(Not to mention how many people have turned on Fetterman with his disgusting response to the situation  PA Dems could definitely feel unmotivated in '24)

[5hfangurl]

At this point, he might as well. 

[Bloodflowers.]

Not surprised, nobody outside of privileged liberals are gonna vote for Biden. Most will stay home or give a protest vote.

[Monster Megamind]

I think it's worth it if Biden loses the election if he can ensure Hamas is defeated. Ideally I would want Biden to not run for reelection. His age is definitely not motivating people. And we are not a cult. If Biden has served his usefulness, we should drop him and move on.

[Dr. Alexander]

4 hours ago, Communion said:

I do wonder how people like this make it through life trying to rationalize away basic facts in front of them to the point of ignorance and being misinformed.

 

I also wonder how people like you can look up and admire a *****, but yet here we are.
 

 

There were various polls that supported what I originally said. 

[Eunwol]

Trump gave us the greatest economy we've ever had so...

[Beyonnaise]

People claiming either outcome with such certainty

 

I think it's going to be very, very, very close and probably come down to like 10,000 votes in one or two states. It's really up in the air at this point. Biden is an extremely weak re-eleection candidate and people really don't want to vote for him again, but Trump has a ceiling with moderate suburbanites in swing states like Arizona and PA as evidenced in 2020 (when Biden performed better with that demographic than Hillary). Another thing working against Trump is the RFK factor, who could be a Ross Perot and seal the deal for a Democrat who wouldn't otherwise be able to reach the delegate threshold.

 

[Bears01]

8 hours ago, Communion said:

I do wonder how people like this make it through life trying to rationalize away basic facts in front of them to the point of ignorance and being misinformed.

 

"the election" - which? The KY Governor race? That Polls accurately predicted? Surely not the MS Governor race, which they lost as polls similarly predicted? 

Do you mean the VA legislature races? Where polls accurately predicted a slight Dem win, which.. is what happened? With a +1 majority in each chamber?

Or do you think referendums that are run as non-partisan policy issues and not attached to any political party winning - as polls predicted - help Democrat?

 

It's genuinely jarring how people become vastly into anti-intellectualism when the huge amount of their identity Ithey've placed into elections can't be reconciled.

Pennsylvania and New Jersey had a complete downballot blue wave, but everything else is pretty accurate 

[If U Seek Amy]

I honestly don't really give these attention at least for now. Too far out. It is a larger poll, but still only around 15K is not a lot of America even with the method they describe. I do think it spells trouble for Biden and he clearly has work to do based on all of the data. But when we start getting much closer and seeing how things are then will be when it really matters. Also, when both sides really start getting onto the advertising and campaigning and all that and people are paying more attention that will have a large impact compared to now. These being real though are a very real chance and they need to be taking that seriously if they really want to win. 

[Queen.]

5 hours ago, Eunwol said:

Trump gave us the greatest economy we've ever had so...

He did that's why I want him back in the office! 

[Hurem]

I lowkey made peace with Trump winning the elections again.

 

Democrats fumbled the bag hard. I hope this will be a wake up call for them and realize they need fresh blood for the office. Imagine having an impeached criminal clown run against you and you're still predicted to lose the elections.

[GhostBox]

Still a year away 😂

[GraceRandolph]

3 minutes ago, Hurem said:

I lowkey made peace with Trump winning the elections again.

 

Democrats fumbled the bag hard. I hope this will be a wake up call for them and realize they need fresh blood for the office. Imagine having an impeached criminal clown run against you and you're still predicted to lose the elections.

If 2016 wasn’t a wake up call then nothing will be. They are just totally out of touch with their voters.

[45seconds]

8 minutes ago, Hurem said:

I lowkey made peace with Trump winning the elections again.

 

Democrats fumbled the bag hard. I hope this will be a wake up call for them and realize they need fresh blood for the office. Imagine having an impeached criminal clown run against you and you're still predicted to lose the elections.

Democrats aren’t to blame. Democrats are straight up slaughtering Rs in state level races. It’s a Biden problem and you can’t revolt against a sitting President and expect to win. To be fair to Biden, his weakest points revolve around things other countries were doing. Russia and Israel are kinda screwing with this reflection numbers. 

[Bears01]

1 hour ago, GraceRandolph said:

If 2016 wasn’t a wake up call then nothing will be. They are just totally out of touch with their voters.

Democrats have only had 1 bad election cycle since 2016 (and that was 2021 with the VA governor race). They have won pretty much every election since then. 
 

It’s specifically a Biden problem 

[Sannie]

On 11/14/2023 at 2:22 AM, babyboy1 said:

atleast under trump these wars wouldnt be happening... so it isnt surprising people want him back

Trump literally tried to start a war with Iran, which could have been an actual world war, and the only thing that stopped that from happening was General Milly refusing Trump's unlawful orders. The same General Trump now calls a traitor and always attacks.

 

----

 

Trump winning PA when Dems have been demolishing the GOP there since 2020. Same in WI. We can talk about polling all day long, but the real-world election results since 2020 show another story. And no, it is not because people like Joe, it is because they are afraid of the GOP.

 

I can see Trump taking AZ and GA back, but he is not getting the rust belt, IMO. Not when it has been trending blue in every election since 2020 and Trump's insulting performance during the auto workers strike. When are people going to realize these polls and "Studies" ignore a hidden voting bloc that keeps showing up election after election?

 

  

15 hours ago, 45seconds said:

Democrats aren’t to blame. Democrats are straight up slaughtering Rs in state level races. It’s a Biden problem and you can’t revolt against a sitting President and expect to win. To be fair to Biden, his weakest points revolve around things other countries were doing. Russia and Israel are kinda screwing with this reflection numbers. 

This is def. true re the "Biden is the problem" comment. The weird thing, though, is that Trump being the problem is hurting the GOP in these races, but Biden being the problem is not hurting the Dems in these races. If I were to extrapolate here, it would be that both are a problem with Biden being a little bit less of a problem for Dems than Trump is for the GOP. Of course state-wide races are not reflective of the federal electorate, but still it is interesting.

 

Fact is, most of the people saying they are not going to vote for Biden are not historical voters anyways. If they were voters, we would not be in this position to begin with because they would have come out in numbers big enough, which they are capable of, to have kept Biden from even getting the nomination in 2020 lol. These people like to virtue signal online but not stand in line to vote.  

Edited November 15, 2023 by Sannie