discussion Largest 2024 election study to date predicts victory for Trump if election held today

[jakeisphat]

Stack Data Strategy conducted a Presidential MRP Study that surveyed 15,205 American voters between October 12, 2023 and November 3, 2023. Based on the responses, the MRP predicts that Trump would win in a race against Biden, Harris, or Gavin Newsom if the election were held today. Stack Data Strategy previously predicted that the Republicans would not have a "red wave" in the 2022 midterms, and was one-seat off in it's final congressional forecast. 

 

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

 

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Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. The Independent Candidates

 

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Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

 

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Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump

 

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https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2023/11/13/bidens-big-hole-and-how-to-dig-out-of-it-00126804

 

https://www.stackdatastrategy.com/blog/stack-usa-mrp 

 

 

Do you think the prediction would be accurate if the election were held today?

[She-Rah]

Trump winning is inevitable at this point. 
 

The democrats fumbled the bag so bad. Genocide Joe should’ve not sought reelection, they should’ve been prepping a new, younger candidate to go against Trump 

 

i am so disgusted by Biden ‘s response to the Israel/palestine genocide I feel no interest in voting for him and I live in a swing state 

[LustSpell]

GA and AZ sure I can see Trump winning back, but I honestly can't see Trump picking up PA? While purple, I feel it's going more the bluish side of the purple

[Mordecai]

The sad thing is that you can tell (apart from the MAGA crowd) that neither side supports their candidate, rather than voting for their party they're just voting against the opposing side

[Gorjesspazze9]

Not suprise considering the mental state of American’s today

[spree]

I don't see Trump winning Pennsylvania.  And the way Ohio just went, I wouldn't say that's guaranteed, either. 

[karron0624]

Az will be blue, Ga and FL are def red. All the swing states are in the air. I wouldnt be surprised if Trump won, because inflation hit hard. Lbh, the genocide wont cause Joe to lose, its the fact that people cant afford to live, and people glorifying life under Trump, which will cause Trump to win. All my first generation Mexican friends are voting Trump because they used to have more money in their pocket, despite the fact that if he won an implemented his policies, their parents are the first to be deported (hell, one’s mother literally has a deportation order against her already from 6 years ago). This is literally Trumps election to lose rn. But lets see how everything turns out in March/April.

[Leppie]

I have a hard time seeing him win the 'Blue Wall' again

[~Start The Music]

This country is so ******* annoying 

[secretgarden]

it's so over 

[bad guy]

Seems realistic. Pennsylvania will be interesting to watch. Arizona being hit hard by the border crisis might swing it red as well.

 

42 minutes ago, spree said:

And the way Ohio just went, I wouldn't say that's guaranteed, either. 

Kansas did the same thing and remains red. Just because Ohioans codified abortion doesn’t mean it’s going blue. That’s a deep red state at this point.

[~Start The Music]

We do not need another Trump presidency wtf is wrong with these idiots in this country omfg

[spree]

53 minutes ago, karron0624 said:

Az will be blue, Ga and FL are def red. All the swing states are in the air. I wouldnt be surprised if Trump won, because inflation hit hard. Lbh, the genocide wont cause Joe to lose, its the fact that people cant afford to live, and people glorifying life under Trump, which will cause Trump to win. All my first generation Mexican friends are voting Trump because they used to have more money in their pocket, despite the fact that if he won an implemented his policies, their parents are the first to be deported (hell, one’s mother literally has a deportation order against her already from 6 years ago). This is literally Trumps election to lose rn. But lets see how everything turns out in March/April.

I wanna know what exactly will go down in price during a Trump administration according to your Mexican friends?  Gas prices? We all know how that works.  Is your electric bill going to go down? Nope.  Are prices at McDonalds going down? Nope.  Car insurance? Health insurance? What is it exactly? 

[karron0624]

3 minutes ago, spree said:

I wanna know what exactly will go down in price during a Trump administration according to your Mexican friends?  Gas prices? We all know how that works.  Is your electric bill going to go down? Nope.  Are prices at McDonalds going down? Nope.  Car insurance? Health insurance? What is it exactly? 

Sis, people just think their lives were better with trump prepandemic. So they just want that 🙃.

[spree]

2 minutes ago, karron0624 said:

Sis, people just think their lives were better with trump prepandemic. So they just want that 🙃.

well yes, but that could've been with any president pre-pandemic.  Tho I do remember how the economy was right before Covid hit.  

[shelven]

A model that has Biden at a +1.5 in the national popular vote a year out from the election before any of Trump's criminal trials have started and before he's back on everyone's TV daily being his usual unhinged self is actually... not bad for Biden? Like a 1% increase between now and November 2024 would probably be enough to swing PA and WI for him, which would get him the electoral college win based on this map.

[Zaram]

Trump winning during these times could have some really bad consequences for the world politic.

[Blue Rose]

I honestly don’t care anymore. Joenocide has turned me off so badly that I’m going to abstain 

[GraceRandolph]

19 minutes ago, shelven said:

A model that has Biden at a +1.5 in the national popular vote a year out from the election before any of Trump's criminal trials have started and before he's back on everyone's TV daily being his usual unhinged self is actually... not bad for Biden? Like a 1% increase between now and November 2024 would probably be enough to swing PA and WI for him, which would get him the electoral college win based on this map.

Huh? This is definitely bad for Biden no matter how you spin it.

[shelven]

4 minutes ago, GraceRandolph said:

Huh? This is definitely bad for Biden no matter how you spin it.

Sis if you check my post history, I am far from a "let me spin everything to make Biden look good" person  But a model a year before the election which has Biden within 2% in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Arizona is objectively much better for him than what the common consensus has been about his electoral prospects lately. Trump's criminal trials and greater media attention on his incoherent nonsense might not shift the race by 5%+, but this model suggests it doesn't need to. 

[GraceRandolph]

5 minutes ago, shelven said:

Sis if you check my post history, I am far from a "let me spin everything to make Biden look good" person  But a model a year before the election which has Biden within 2% in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Arizona is objectively much better for him than what the common consensus has been about his electoral prospects lately. Trump's criminal trials and greater media attention on his incoherent nonsense might not shift the race by 5%+, but this model suggests it doesn't need to. 

Those prospects are not great for an incumbent president. This is objectively a very worrying sign for Biden's reelection chances.

[shelven]

Just now, GraceRandolph said:

Those prospects are not great for an incumbent president. This is objectively a very worrying sign for Biden's reelection chances.

I didn't say the model is great for him. I said it's "not bad", and I meant that relative to the recent discourse in the electoral politics world. If you asked most "poll-watchers" on social media what they thought the state of the race was, they'd probably say Biden is close to being dead in the water and that the Democrats desperately need to switch him out for another candidate. Hell, even I've said that on here in the last few days. My only point now is that this model suggests the state of the race is "Biden's in a tough but very doable re-election fight", not "Yeah he's screwed, Trump 2024 it is I guess."

 

Also, it's quite common for incumbents to poll worse a year before the election than they actually end up performing. People who aren't thrilled with an incumbent flirt with the idea of voting for someone else until actual campaigning starts and they decide the other candidate is worse. Obama polled worse in 2011 than he performed in 2012. Even though he lost, Trump polled worse in 2019 than he performed in 2020. It's not exactly unheard of for a lot of undecideds to ultimately go back to the incumbent when push comes to shove.

[babyboy1]

atleast under trump these wars wouldnt be happening... so it isnt surprising people want him back

[Chemist]

I don't think Trump is winning PA. The rest seems likely at this point

[Rep2000]

33 minutes ago, babyboy1 said:

atleast under trump these wars wouldnt be happening... so it isnt surprising people want him back

Yeah, he would just fold it and yield to the aggressor right away. This talking point is the most stupid one I have seen from the Trumpsters. He literally would give Ukraine to Putin on a ******* silver platter in a heartbeat.

Edited November 14, 2023 by Rep2000