base talk Where would Taylor's career be if 2019 went differently?

[Beyonnaise]

Time for a little alternate history. 

 

Put yourself back in April 2019. We started hearing whispers of new Taylor music on the horizon, and she teased with palm trees and fence holes.

 

 

Now let's say pretty much everything with the Lover era that year happened the same, except for just a few things:

 

1. She releases Cruel Summer as the lead single. It peaks at #2 behind history-making smash Old Town Road, but is still an undeniably big hit that doesn't fall out of the charts. The video is very pop and follows the era's pastel aesthetic. The rest of the album's singles are the same.

2. On June 30th, 2019, Scott Borchetta sells Big Machine label assets (the masters to Taylor's first six albums) to a private equity firm. Taylor doesn't publicly comment initially, but in her Rolling Stone interview that fall, she says she is privately negotiating with the firm to potentially buy back her masters at some point. There is no involvement of Scooter Braun, and no plans of re-recording her previous albums are ever floated.

3. And now the hypothetical to end all hypotheticals: COVID-19 never happens. We all go on with our lives as normal without a pandemic, and Taylor heads out on the LoverFest tour in 2020.

 

With those hypotheticals in mind, where do you think her career would be now in 2023? Would she have still pivoted to folk? Would anything like the Eras Tour have ever happened by now? Would she still be undoubtedly the biggest star in the world, stomping in every metric?

 

Edited October 19, 2023 by Beyonnaise

[WokeEqualist]

I feel like if covid never happened and she'd never made folklore and evermore she'd be Katy'd now. She'd still be a household name tho, her releases and tours just wouldn't be nearly as big as they are now

[Europe]

If COVID never happened her relationship with Joe probably would have ended sooner. He is obsessed with his "privacy" and forced Taylor into that lifestyle as well. Them being forced to stay at home 24/7 for 2 years elongated that cursed relationship. And before anyone thinks that is not the case, there were clues to this all through their relationship and we see how she behaves now that she is finally rid of him, so no need to doubt the rumours. So with that wet blanket not holding her back, she would have released her best work ever and would be way bigger than she is today and a larger part of the cultural stratosphere.

Edited October 19, 2023 by AbeHicks

[Badgalbriel]

15 minutes ago, WokeEqualist said:

I feel like if covid never happened and she'd never made folklore and evermore she'd be Katy'd now. She'd still be a household name tho, her releases and tours just wouldn't be nearly as big as they are now

Taylor f-ing Swift would be Katy Perry'd, FFS, you all say anything. 

[MingYouToo]

I genuinely, and I say this as a big big BIG fan, think she would've been very easily plateauing or showing longer signs of decline.

 

Hear me out, she'll still be miles bigger than Katy ever was, but I'm talking big debuts, zero radio presence, singles fall off badly (like think Willow but do it for every song without the redeeming 1B streams of songs like, say, Cardigan). At that point it'd be clear she doesn't have the casual public hearing her out. Swifties are massive but not massive enough to sustain the chart runs she has in our universe, there is massive public interest in her musical output now.

 

Taylor going from Lover - Midnights would do massive damage to her career bc I can easily see the writings on the wall: 'Midnights was bad and her songwriting is falling off'. Midnights was easily forgiven for its subpar quality in our world bc it succeeded FolkMore, two of her most acclaimed and well written records. Had she gone from 'Hey kids, spelling is fun!' to 'sexy baby', Taylor's reputation as a writer would nowhere be where it is now.

 

LoverFest would've probably been a big part of her 2020, then RED TV would probably boost her career a bit, but the way it happened in our world, RED TV was just a cofactor in the catalysis of change in her career which is Folklore. Taylor owes her entire return to peak form to that album, not RED TV, not Midnights, but Folklore. Folklore to RED TV gave the public a reformed view of her 2012 record, seeing it under a more critically acclaimed light. Sure RED TV by itself would've been praised but the narrative of going from Lover - Fearless and RED TV would not have garnered as much praise.

 

Another important factor is that COVID was the reason FolkMore even happened, without it I doubt she'd ever leave the pop stratosphere. She would probably be continue to do pop, and yet plateau in success, then do a poprock pivot mid 2020s that would've been the biggest alternate world event for her career which would take her to Eras Tour level fame.

 

Taylor's last 3 big tricks up her sleeve are her singer songwriter era, which she did in our universe (FolkMore), her eventual poprock Paramore-FOB-Green Day era and a return to country. All of these 3 are guaranteed to pique new interest into her career. In our world she has 2 more and a possible disco era for her European market. 

Edited October 19, 2023 by MingYouToo

[Relampago.]

She would have massive implants and start selling sex and pin-up image.

 

We get an album full of Vigilante S***s.

 

Her album debuts with 400k first week then experiences an 85% drop the following week.

 

She flops into oblivion.

 

Biden is elected and she has an affair with him in a desperate attempt for headlines. The new Monica Lewinsky. 

 

She becomes a social pariah in the US and flees to China.

 

She re-establishes herself in one of her strongest markets, becomes a full time communist, gets her implants removed and completely changes her capitalist ways.

 

She slowly builds up her fanbase in China again and starts to move into politics.

 

She topples the CCP and becomes the president of China, establishing a new era of prosperity and diplomatic relations with China and the world.

 

She visits Wuhan and becomes patient zero for COVID. Rather than let it spread, she has her scientist team contain the virus and keep it hidden.

 

She then re-visits her ex-Lover Joe Biden and tells him about the new virus she discovered. He is worried about the possibility of it breaking out and causing a pandemic, but she assures him she has it under control.

 

The following year, aliens arrive on Earth and begin enslaving the human race. Rather than stand aside and watch her people suffer, she unleashed biological warfare against the aliens, while simultaneously giving the human race doses of the vaccine she had prepared in the past year. COVID wipes out the aliens and leaves humans unscathed. She is a worldwide hero.

 

She releases her comeback single “Hero” from her album “Middays”. It’s a smash. 
 

Joe Biden passes away and she begins her tour going through all her Eras while trying to re-establish her massive popularity in the US even further by dating well known football player Travis Kelce. She’s now the most popular and most powerful woman in the world and resigns from her position in China to focus on her music career again. We’re back to where we are today.

 

Like Thanos, she’s inevitable. She always wins and we can stand it.

[Popboi.]

2019 wasn't really an important step into the current state of her career, things could've only been better for her then by swapping ME! with another song (mostly Lover probably debuting with a million).

 

folklore was the starting point to her current dominance, giving her the recognition and praise of most of her previous detractors, evermore cemented that and then Red TV reignited the fandom spark as a reminder to why everyone loved her in the first place.

Edited October 19, 2023 by Popboi.

[Schami66]

i think she started to work in Folklore before Covid hit, does anyone know that? I remember reading the  credits back then and something in there made me realize that she started recording before 2020.

 

[Taylor fanboy]

Less poular than now, very sure of it

[WokeEqualist]

33 minutes ago, Badgalbriel said:

Taylor f-ing Swift would be Katy Perry'd, FFS, you all say anything. 

You're thinking of 2023 Taylor vs 2023 Katy, we're talking about 2019. Lover was a decline from 1989 and rep whether you wanna admit it or not, regardless of how good the album is doing now. The single choices were terrible, she was doing cringe activism with YNTCD like Katy with Witness, releasing immature Disney music like ME!ss, most people didn't see her as a serious artist/songwriter before folkmore, etc. 2020-2023 completely revitalised her career

 

[Badgalbriel]

3 minutes ago, WokeEqualist said:

You're thinking of 2023 Taylor vs 2023 Katy, we're talking about 2019. Lover was a decline from 1989 and rep whether you wanna admit it or not, regardless of how good the album is doing now. The single choices were terrible, she was doing cringe activism with YNTCD like Katy with Witness, releasing immature Disney music like ME!ss, most people didn't see her as a serious artist/songwriter before folkmore, etc. 2020-2023 completely revitalised her career

 

And getting Katy'd would've still never happened. Taylor would always have a huge fanbase to support her and she's smart as f, so she can come back to the top whenever she wants. 

FFS, she opened with more than Adele's 30 with Lover and you claim she was gonna be over after that?

[WokeEqualist]

2 minutes ago, Badgalbriel said:

And getting Katy'd would've still never happened. Taylor would always have a huge fanbase to support her and she's smart as f, so she can come back to the top whenever she wants. 

FFS, she opened with more than Adele's 30 with Lover and you claim she was gonna be over after that?

I never said she was gonna be over?  I meant Katy'd in the way Katy keeps making Disney music for kids at her big age, with no artistic growth, trying to recapture what her early albums achieved. Taylor was able to get back in her element during quarantine, and we've seen that in everything she's released since

[Badgalbriel]

Just now, WokeEqualist said:

I never said she was gonna be over?  I meant Katy'd in the way Katy keeps making Disney music for kids at her big age, with no artistic growth, trying to recapture what her early albums achieved. Taylor was able to get back in her element during quarantine, and we've seen that in everything she's released since

Than you need to better phrase that because getting Katy'd means being over and not even being able to launch music anymore because it just won't get consumed. 

[chiliam]

42 minutes ago, Schami66 said:

i think she started to work in Folklore before Covid hit, does anyone know that? I remember reading the  credits back then and something in there made me realize that she started recording before 2020.

 

No. She starts the ideal of folklore after lockdown around March/April 2020 and the album was released by end of July.

[WitnessOblivia]

Poor Katy getting dragged in here 

 

I think it really depends on what kind of album she would release. I think she'd be just as big as she is now if she still released Folkmore. 

She would still be a big artist if she released another pop album like Lover, but I don't think she would have been this massive.

[Tusk]

To me, Lover Fest sounded like a unicorn, cotton candy, Lisa Frank show. 
 

I think it would have turned her career into comical fodder. 
 

[Axelios]

30 minutes ago, WokeEqualist said:

You're thinking of 2023 Taylor vs 2023 Katy, we're talking about 2019. Lover was a decline from 1989 and rep whether you wanna admit it or not, regardless of how good the album is doing now. The single choices were terrible, she was doing cringe activism with YNTCD like Katy with Witness, releasing immature Disney music like ME!ss, most people didn't see her as a serious artist/songwriter before folkmore, etc. 2020-2023 completely revitalised her career

 

Lover was the #1 best selling album of 2019. It wasn't even really a decline compared to Reputation 

[Achilles.]

37 minutes ago, Schami66 said:

i think she started to work in Folklore before Covid hit, does anyone know that? I remember reading the  credits back then and something in there made me realize that she started recording before 2020.

 

My Tears Ricochet was the first song written for the album, sometime in Q4 2019 or Q1 2020, so just before lockdown. I’m not sure how much we can consider that indicative of the direction she would have taken with TS8 in a covid-less world; it could have been made to fit on any Antonoff’d pop album. 

[Peak Now]

A thoughtful question. Let me try to explain my thoughts.

 

- I don't really buy that Cruel Summer would've smashed as hard if it were the lead single. The current organic hit levels of the single are due mainly to her new commercial peak and popularity with the tour and Midnights and everything, and if it had come out in 2019 without all that, and on the back of Reputation... I just don't see it. #2 debut is assured though.

- No folkmore and no re-recordings make a HUGE difference. Folkmore helped rehabilitate her in the eyes of music critics and it kinda become cool to listen to Taylor. (I would say "socially acceptable" but that's a bit of an exaggeration ngl) Furthermore, the re-recordings helped remind people that her huge back catalogue, which is often more critically acclaimed than her newer work, existed. I think this helped her popularity with younger fans, given how streaming numbers for old music are eclipsing that of new music these days by a fair margin. Without all that, she is just taken less seriously overall (not that certain songs from Lover help).

- Here's a controversial take. I think with Lover and the plans she had for the era, she had accepted that she was probably gonna end up as a legacy artist soon-ish, i.e. strong fanbase but no/few active hits. If you look at that quote about being 30 from Miss Americana, her plans for the Lover era (headlining Glasto with Paul McCartney?), her songs on Lover (Lover, Paper Rings, etc.) they all hint in that direction. I don't wanna speculate if she'd end up with Joe but I really don't think that's impossible.

 

Conclusion: I think she'd become a legacy artist but with a much larger fanbase than most others, probably enough to push her new singles to a debut-week #1 for a while before natural decline kicks in. But most people wouldn't think of her as they bumped to newer MPGs.

[Peak Now]

3 minutes ago, Achilles. said:

My Tears Ricochet was the first song written for the album, sometime in Q4 2019 or Q1 2020, so just before lockdown. I’m not sure how much we can consider that indicative of the direction she would have taken with TS8 in a covid-less world; it could have been made to fit on any Antonoff’d pop album. 

My Tears Ricochet was written about her masters though, according to the OP that doesn't happen

[Selegend]

Taylor Swift would always be huge but i don't think she would be this "next level/unreacheable" level of huge that she is right now. 

 

Even Cruel Summer being a single in 2019 would be less impressive than being somewhat an official "the eras tour" single like it is right now. 

everything just worked how it should for her. 

 

when u're this level of huge there's no way we could imagine anything bigger -- and i am dreamer myself -- but it really is insane

somewhat everything just helped her. maybe even Lover being what Lover was in term of single choices made Folklore more surprising and appealing than it would've been if Lover was a well-managed era in term of singles  idk it just seems that everything happened perfectly for her becuase there's no way anyone would be bigger than she right now. 

 

and oh, the re-recordings were excellent for her career. turned her into a never-seen-before level of a catalog artist. 

Edited October 19, 2023 by Selegend

[MidnightsAtPeace]

21 minutes ago, Tusk said:

To me, Lover Fest sounded like a unicorn, cotton candy, Lisa Frank show. 
 

I think it would have turned her career into comical fodder. 
 

I think I would've hated Love Fest. an entire tour in broad daylight is not something I would be excited about. and also a 360 stage would've limited the production so terribly.

Edited October 19, 2023 by MidnightsAtPeace

[Achilles.]

2 minutes ago, AndThenTheCocaine said:

My Tears Ricochet was written about her masters though, according to the OP that doesn't happen

I think it still could be written as a “divorce from BMR” song, even if she did buy her masters back as the op proposes. Plus, it’s partially inspired by Marriage Story, so that influence is still there.

[Bosque]

46 minutes ago, WokeEqualist said:

You're thinking of 2023 Taylor vs 2023 Katy, we're talking about 2019. Lover was a decline from 1989 and rep whether you wanna admit it or not, regardless of how good the album is doing now. The single choices were terrible, she was doing cringe activism with YNTCD like Katy with Witness, releasing immature Disney music like ME!ss, most people didn't see her as a serious artist/songwriter before folkmore, etc. 2020-2023 completely revitalised her career

 

Lover still opened higher than every Katy album ever combined. Let’s just keep it realistic

[Machete]

17 minutes ago, AndThenTheCocaine said:

A thoughtful question. Let me try to explain my thoughts.

 

- I don't really buy that Cruel Summer would've smashed as hard if it were the lead single. The current organic hit levels of the single are due mainly to her new commercial peak and popularity with the tour and Midnights and everything, and if it had come out in 2019 without all that, and on the back of Reputation... I just don't see it. #2 debut is assured though.

- No folkmore and no re-recordings make a HUGE difference. Folkmore helped rehabilitate her in the eyes of music critics and it kinda become cool to listen to Taylor. (I would say "socially acceptable" but that's a bit of an exaggeration ngl) Furthermore, the re-recordings helped remind people that her huge back catalogue, which is often more critically acclaimed than her newer work, existed. I think this helped her popularity with younger fans, given how streaming numbers for old music are eclipsing that of new music these days by a fair margin. Without all that, she is just taken less seriously overall (not that certain songs from Lover help).

- Here's a controversial take. I think with Lover and the plans she had for the era, she had accepted that she was probably gonna end up as a legacy artist soon-ish, i.e. strong fanbase but no/few active hits. If you look at that quote about being 30 from Miss Americana, her plans for the Lover era (headlining Glasto with Paul McCartney?), her songs on Lover (Lover, Paper Rings, etc.) they all hint in that direction. I don't wanna speculate if she'd end up with Joe but I really don't think that's impossible.

 

Conclusion: I think she'd become a legacy artist but with a much larger fanbase than most others, probably enough to push her new singles to a debut-week #1 for a while before natural decline kicks in. But most people wouldn't think of her as they bumped to newer MPGs.

All of this. Basically she would be at the same spot Beyoncé is now. Legacy artist who can get a cute mini-hit song and stadium tour but that’s kinda it  (and this is no shade it’s a cute spot).