Early Predictions: Vampire #1 , 300 pts , 40m streams. Dethrones Last Night

[QueenofCopyPaste]

32 minutes ago, Machete said:

Morgan is only "OTR" sized in number of weeks due to lack of competition. His 296 points should be easy to beat for an artist who had an era like SOUR. 

Keep up with the charts 

 

Formula has changed

[Virtual_Insanity]

17 minutes ago, FolkLover1989 said:

Actually those 296 pts are same as 500+ pts in 2019-2020

 

Formula changed a lot

Definitely not. Mariah was still pulling 500 point weeks in 2021 and 2022. 

[naval23]

Her ME! 

[Relampago.]

I really haven’t cared for Olivia’s song at all so I haven’t been listening, but let me throw it on in the background while I work cause

[sourprint]

9 minutes ago, MusicLoverDude said:

Yes because she should have enough of a fanbase built in from last era for a #1 debut. 

 

If she doesn't get it, I only see Taylor beating him. 

excuse me did billie also debut her sophomore era lead at #1?? yall are just up her ass too much as i said yalls HIGH EXPECTATIONS on olivia rodrigo are showing. she ended up having a rly huge era but thats just an one in a million case the performance of vampire is on par with normalcy, or to put it in a better way with an artist of her caliber leave SOUR out of the convo

Edited July 5, 2023 by sourprint

[Virtual_Insanity]

2 minutes ago, QueenofCopyPaste said:

Keep up with the charts 

 

Formula has changed

Stop making excuses. Y'all exected her to destroy Morgan. 

[spree]

1 minute ago, naval23 said:

It was like Roar vs Blurred Lines - Roar erupted to #2 but stayed for a few weeks before dethroning Blurred Lines

those were the days.  Roar was only #1 for 2 weeks before Wrecking Ball dethroned it.  But Roar was so big that it still made the Top 10 year-end after debuting in August.   

[QueenofCopyPaste]

10 minutes ago, Virtual_Insanity said:

Stop making excuses. Y'all exected her to destroy Morgan. 

Oh the BTS stan is back 

[Zaminamina]

Honestly I like her but she didn't bring anything interesting. I heard the song once and I don't see myself going back. Fast Car/Cruel Summer may have a better chance to dethrone Morgan in the near future and it just feels right this song not going number one.

[umich]

10 minutes ago, naval23 said:

It was like Roar vs Blurred Lines - Roar erupted to #2 but stayed for a few weeks before dethroning Blurred Lines

She also did the same thing against Usher and will.i.am's "OMG" in 2010 with "California Gurls." Whew lord  

 

OT: Not surprised considering LN is this year's OTR in terms of all-around dominance. It seems as if country radio is dropping this song to make room for his next single, but it still has room to grow on pop and adult pop. I don't see the streams collapsing anytime soon. This is not to say that "vampire" will not have a chance at #1, but it's going to be a tooth-and-nail battle.

[unclefloprry]

5 minutes ago, sourprint said:

excuse me did billie also debut her sophomore era lead at #1?? yall are just up her ass too much as i said yalls HIGH EXPECTATIONS on olivia rodrigo are showing. she ended up having a rly huge era but thats just an one in a million case the performance of vampire is on par with normalcy, or to put it in a better way with an artist of her caliber leave SOUR out of the convo

TIA (OG first single) was released a day earlier on a Thursday. With a normal tracking week it would have debuted at #1 with ease, but instead was a #94-#2. 

[simmnfierzig]

1 hour ago, BuzzCharts said:

Last Night will go 20 weeks at #1 if it wins this week 

Cruel Summer is not taking another 2 months to pass Last Night

[Dula Peep]

stream vampire 

[BuzzCharts]

5 minutes ago, simmnfierzig said:

Cruel Summer is not taking another 2 months to pass Last Night

Last night still has a ton of room to grow on pop radio and its streams don’t move.  Cruel summer better pick it up in streaming 

[Ms. Togekiss]

1 hour ago, Johnny said:

Why do you insist on posting this nonsense about people “not being interested in new music”  The current Hot 100 top 10 is all music officially released in the past one year. Yes, there are a few resurging songs in the Hot 100 but they are outnumbered 10:1 in favour of new music, where about 20% of the current chart is comprised of brand new releases.

 

And I know you follow the charts closely enough to know those USA-themed songs have temporarily surged due to the 4th of July holiday…

Omg thank you. I was about to reply to that user and I would have 100% gotten a WP for what I was going to say  can they be thread banned or receive WP for posting disruptive spam about the same ******* thing over and over again? 

48 minutes ago, FolkLover1989 said:

Actually those 296 pts are same as 500+ pts in 2019-2020

 

Formula changed a lot

 

42 minutes ago, BuzzCharts said:

296 points in 2023 are what 400 points were a couple years ago.  Billboard has changed all the formulas 

I think folks are not understanding this. The formula has changed so much. Streaming smashes nowadays seem to be capped at 40M, sales are dead, and radio audiences barely break 100M when some 10 years ago pop radio alone would get you that much, with the mega radio smashes reaching 180-200M impressions. 300 is the new 500-600 for sure.

 

I think people need to take Last Night (as awful as it is) as the ceiling for other smashes. It’s a huge radio hit with plenty of room left in pop radio to grow, it’s getting the max number of streams a song can get after 10-15 weeks. I hate to say this but this song is sorta becoming the standard/ceiling for smashes in the US

27 minutes ago, QueenofCopyPaste said:

Oh the BTS stan is back 

MTE  and it looks like they brought their dumbass dated takes with them too

[khalyan]

I really hope Olivia gets it even if the song isn’t as good as the ones on her debut. I just really cannot deal with Morgan 

[slw84]

2 hours ago, Triton said:

It’s 4th of July week, the hillbillies were out in full blast as Morgan Wallen provided the soundtrack while drinking bud light, cooking burgers and shooting off fireworks. #Murica 

 

Imagine if he did some patriotic anthem, dear lord we are not safe. 

Drinking bud light...

Definitely an outdated statement.

 

Did Morgan have any boosts anywhere? I didn't notice a boost on any streaming platforms.

 

Pull through Olivia.

[BuzzCharts]

Up 8 spots since the TOTC tweet 

 

[wish]

I'm most shocked by the people saying this song is mediocre or not up to par with her past material

 

It's literally her best song...

[Siberian Tiger]

I thought they overestimated her streams so no surprise.

[littlebodybigheart]

42 minutes ago, BuzzCharts said:

Last night still has a ton of room to grow on pop radio and its streams don’t move.  Cruel summer better pick it up in streaming 

what makes you think that it won’t? lol

[Ivan_brit]

We still have 1 day & a half let’s secure the #1 spot! 

[Bloodflowers.]

Gen Z music stans ain't as powerful as Republicans 

[LustSpell]

I despise her and her kiddie music but damn I was hoping the racist would take the L for at least one week  We're possibly about to have the longest #1 record, a song made by a gay black man... taken over by a racist country ****. Republicans really be on our necks for everything  HATE them

[BuzzCharts]

26 minutes ago, littlebodybigheart said:

what makes you think that it won’t? lol

I have no doubt it will but I’m mostly just saying Last Night isn’t moving and CS needs to gain over 100 points from now.  It can be done but it’s an uphill climb