Early Predictions: Vampire #1 , 300 pts , 40m streams. Dethrones Last Night

[Machete]

Just now, QueenofCopyPaste said:

It is a smash. Morgan is just on a Old Town Road size reign 

Morgan is only "OTR" sized in number of weeks due to lack of competition. His 296 points should be easy to beat for an artist who had an era like SOUR. 

[spree]

1 hour ago, Ms. Togekiss said:

I don’t think they accounted for 

1. the Fourth of July boosting morgan

2. Olivia’s hold has been just okay

3. they’re still underestimating her sales 

 

it’s really up in the air atp

Morgan is #5 and Olivia is #13 on itunes.

[drivers license]

25 minutes ago, Machete said:

Can't believe people were so sure she was scoring a mega smash hit like DL and g4u  BEST case scenario right now is that this ends up a "big hit" but not smash level akin to positions. Wouldn't be shocked if it dips below though.

literally who said that  i’ve seen you basically post the same **** on different threads

[despy]

US ATRLERS GO BUY & STREAM VAMPIRE

Edited July 5, 2023 by despy

[TrieLz]

I remember G4U almost get blocked by J.Cole song on her debut week with 320-340 points., and everyone has a huge meltdown

 

and now it’s happening again 

[Asscatchem]

can we stop pretending that olivia's choice to play it safe both visually and sonically cost her?

[FolkLover1989]

6 minutes ago, Machete said:

Morgan is only "OTR" sized in number of weeks due to lack of competition. His 296 points should be easy to beat for an artist who had an era like SOUR. 

Actually those 296 pts are same as 500+ pts in 2019-2020

 

Formula changed a lot

[Aaron]

Olivia needs to switch it up. She still has yet to release a single that isn’t about a guy dumping her and moving on while she’s still sad

[Trent W]

Olivia kind of set up some insane high standards too early

 

The difference between this debuting at #1 or #2 can change the perception of the whole era.

 

Vampire is great, and the numbers are healthy but it’s not the mega smash everyone thought she was going to drop. I think most people were expecting Flowers/Anti-hero level debut.

 

I do think she can still get to #1, hopefully the next single smashes harder

[sourprint]

ppl rooting for a racist hillbilly to defeat olivia on this r actually insane

[BuzzCharts]

11 minutes ago, Machete said:

Morgan is only "OTR" sized in number of weeks due to lack of competition. His 296 points should be easy to beat for an artist who had an era like SOUR. 

296 points in 2023 are what 400 points were a couple years ago.  Billboard has changed all the formulas 

[Steve Johnson]

Last Night is actually listenable. So not surprised. 

[SelenaGomez<3]

1 hour ago, Dom said:

The song is god awful mediocrity what did they expect. Flowers should be on TOP tho. 

This

I like her music but this lead is 

[Attaboy]

NOOOO. That would be really sad

 

Not like I wasn’t streaming Vampire on repeat anyway so I am doing my part 

[Virtual_Insanity]

We need Katy to surprise drop something. 

[sourprint]

23 minutes ago, Machete said:

ATRL and their tendency to overrate pop girls' success never fails. Seen this happen with Doja, Dua and Olivia in the past month. Don't even get me started on the DELUSIONAL Miley predictions a couple of months ago   All of their underperformances were painfully obvious to anyone with the slightest grip of Gen Z/"the culture".

 

Even if this does debut #1 (which I think it will because of last minute gimmicks) the points are an embarrassment and it is showing no signs of being a smash. Best case scenario is a deja vu sized hit

why an embarrassment if this morgan wallen song has been big for a good minute and it is perfectly relatable to blue collar america.. get a grip she is not underperforming at all the only thing thats happening here is yalls huge standards for her started to show as soon as it dropped.. do u expect her to have the song of the summer by every release she makes or smth

[MusicLoverDude]

Yes because she should have enough of a fanbase built in from last era for a #1 debut. 

 

If she doesn't get it, I only see Taylor beating him. 

[KOMH]

The mid week collapsethe jig is up

[littlebodybigheart]

9 minutes ago, Aaron said:

Olivia needs to switch it up. She still has yet to release a single that isn’t about a guy dumping her and moving on while she’s still sad

wait i went through all her singles and that’s true

 

unless you count brutal.

[awong918]

Yes, I'm surprised that such a great comeback lead by Olivia might not reach #1

No, I'm not surprised that this country (and some users here) have poor taste.

 

It's a grower, so I think it will at least have longevity.

[Machete]

14 minutes ago, FolkLover1989 said:

Actually those 296 pts are same as 500+ pts in 2019-2020

 

Formula changed a lot

Yes I am aware of the change and agree 296 now is akin to 500 back then but that is again nothing close to the 700-900 OTR was doing. And again in 2019-2020 big artists comebacks were getting +500 points...

[Virtual_Insanity]

21 minutes ago, Machete said:

Morgan is only "OTR" sized in number of weeks due to lack of competition. His 296 points should be easy to beat for an artist who had an era like SOUR. 

I agree. She should be able to clear 400 points without even having to try 

[Steve Johnson]

Cruel summer sweetie, get ready. The stage is set for ya. 

[Steve Johnson]

1 minute ago, Machete said:

Yes I am aware of the change and agree 296 now is akin to 500 back then but that is again nothing close to the 700-900 OTR was doing. And again in 2019-2020 big artists comebacks were getting +500 points...

Yeah. OTR really blocked ME! (810 points)

[naval23]

It was like Roar vs Blurred Lines - Roar erupted to #2 but stayed for a few weeks before dethroning Blurred Lines