discussion Box Office Discussion | Inside SMASH 2

[BNF91]

Early $26.5M Saturday for GxK. Weekend now headed to $78-82M. Beating Dune 2's domestic opening will be close, not sure it will get there with the hefty Easter Sunday drop. 

 

Still, way above industry forecasts, and OS is doing incredible (though quite China heavy, which will impact legs).

 

Think $580-620M should be achievable for GxK in the end. Biggest monsterverse film. 

[fridayteenage]

2 hours ago, BNF91 said:

Uh, I'm talking domestic, which is a single market. Not sure what the Intl gross has to do with my domestic expectations?

 

Besides, there was not a single person expecting this kind of run domestically, even in the high end. It's US/Canada gross will be nearly 75% of Part One's entire worldwide earnings. 

a million people were busy dying in the US, so there were shutdowns and reduced box offices? fewer shutdowns globally that year

 

the most storied space franchise star wars:

rise of skywalker 48% US

solo 54%

last Jedi 47%

rogue one 51%

force awakens 45%

revenge of the sith 45%

clones 47%

menace 46%

 

avg 48%.

if dune 1's international total was 52% of its total, that would be US = $271 mil.

at the low end of solo's 46% international, dune 1 could have had US = $345 mil.

 

this article predicted ww $700 mil+, though dunno what their US prediction was: https://screenrant.com/highest-grossing-movies-2024-box-office-predictions/

 

last two star treks: 47% US, 49% US

ender's game: 48% US

Edited March 31 by fridayteenage

[Lovett]

[BNF91]

Easter Weekend-

 

#1- Godzilla x Kong smashes with an $80M domestic debut, 2nd biggest of 2024 so far. $190-220M run seems likely. 

 

#2- Ghostbusters (wknd 2) plummets with $15.7M, -65% on Easter wknd is brutal. 

 

#3- Dune Part Two (wknd 5) holds very strong despite losing most of its remaining IMAX to Godzilla, just -37% to $11.1M. Smashes past $252M. 

 

#4- KFP4 (wknd 4) has solid hold as well with -38% for $10.2M. breaks through $151M. 

 

#5- Immaculate (2nd wknd) has an immaculate hold with -39%, $3.3M. $11M total.

 

Edited March 31 by BNF91

[Almodusa]

Yes Godzilla yes success  

[Zendayababes]

Deserved. Such a fun movie and I wanted to see more of Queen Tiamut.

[Johnny Jacobs]

Ngl i really thought with all the buzz hype and praise that dune would be at 800mil right now. 

[Johnny Jacobs]

Also oh wow Warner is really winning lately huh

[Batsy Armada]

I saw it last night and ultimately enjoyed it. My main issue with it was its pacing; scenes and moments didn't really have time to develop like they should have. It just felt very rushed. And I don't like how they felt the need to announce everything Godzilla was doing through the dialogue; I didn't need my hand held like that, personally. It's a good film, overall, though the previous films in the MonsterVerse are just better, in my opinion.

[BNF91]

APR 5-7: Friday estimates

 

1. Godzilla- $8.5M (headed for $29-32M 2nd wknd, big drop but still solid

 

2. Monkey Man- $4.3M (headed for $10M debut wknd)

 

3. The First Omen- $3.2M (headed for $8.5M debut wknd)

 

4. Ghostbusters- $2.4M (headed for $9M 3rd wknd)

 

5. Kung Fu Panda 4- $2.2M (headed for $8.5M 5th wknd)

 

6. Dune: Part Two- $2M (headed for $8M 6th wknd)

[BNF91]

APR 5-7: Wknd Actuals

 

DOMESTIC

 

#1) Godzilla x Kong rules over it's 2nd wknd of release, down considerably but still decently strong. -61% for $31.2M, $134.5M total. It may crawl to $200M.

 

#2) Monkey Man comes in on the lower end of projections, with a $10.1M debut. Tbh I think it's a respectable opening for that film. 

 

#3) Ghostbusters Frozen Empire softens the fall with a better -42% 3rd wknd drop for $9M. Total is now $88M. Should get to $105-110M but no more than that, not particularly impressive considering the COVID-rattled Afterlife did almost $130M domestic. This one kinda got drowned out from the over performance of Dune, KFP4 and Godzilla. 

 

#4) The First Omen flops with an $8.35M debut wknd, and not an encouraging weekend multi; Sunday was already down to #7 with just $1.85M. Bad numbers, no other way to put it. 

 

#5) Kung Fu Panda 4 with a remarkable -25% dip to $7.8M in wknd 5, running total of $166M. Definitely reaping the rewards of being the only animated fare in theatres and it will be that way for awhile; until Garfield in mid May. $190-200M is the finishing range. 

 

#6) Dune: Part Two continues to post strong holds, with a small -35% drop to $7.4M in it's 6th wknd of release. #1 on the year, it's raked in a towering $265M domestic so far and more in the tank, as it has now been set for a wide IMAX re-release for two more weeks starting April 19th. WB wants that $300M. 

 

INTERNATIONAL 

 

Overseas, The Boy and The Heron finally debuted in China with a historic opening. $73M 5-day over the lucrative holiday weekend gave the Miyazaki film the biggest animated opening of all-time in China. It's global total has now shot to $273M, and should be able to breach the $300M mark when all is said and done, which would bring the studio back to the box office highs of Spirited Away and Ponyo.

 

Despite opening bigger than Dune 2, Godzilla x Kong couldn't keep up the pace in it's sophomore wknd, but still held decently. Collecting another $59M in it's 2nd wknd puts it at $226M OS, for a global total of $361M. It should be good for another $200M~, with $600M as the high end. Could challenge for the biggest movie in the Monsterverse. 

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 kept raking it in with it's staggered rollout. It collected $27M this wknd for a running total of $243M OS. Global total hits $409M. A final total in the $525-575M range looks good. 

 

Dune: Part Two had a brilliant hold in wknd 6, just -18% for $15.8M. Running total hits $400.1M OS, global hits $665M. $700M is locked, with $730-750M now possible. 

 

Ghostbusters continues to show it weakness OS, with an $8M wknd for $49M running total. A few more major markets to open in, but we can put a fork in this one. 

 

First Omen- $9.1M OS debut, $17.4M global total

 

Monkey Man- $2.4M OS debut, $12.5M global total

[Gwendolyn]

https://variety.com/2024/film/box-office/box-office-civil-war-opening-weekend-record-a24-1235970626/

 

[Arcadius]

Henry potentially having back to back bombs of films where he was promoted front and center. That man is just not a draw. 

[Lovett]

 

[X~MoviePoP]

Challengers will do so good on streaming

[fridayteenage]

i'm kinda thinking both civil war and Challengers won't make a profit in theaters. but we'll see.

[BNF91]

APRIL 26-28 

 

Challengers debuts at #1 with $15M domestic. Not amazing but really, not bad either given the genre. Far and away director Luca Guadagnino's biggest debut. 

 

Godzilla x Kong passes $500M ($519M) global after a $22M 5th wknd (7.2M Dom/14.9M OS). Headed for $550-575M

 

Civil War has good hold in wknd 3 (-38%, $7M). Headed for $70-75M domestic. 

 

Kung Fu Panda also breaches $500M global ($503M) after a $15.2M 8th wknd (3.5M Dom/11.7M OS). Headed for $540-560M

 

Ghostbusters having solid late holds domestic ($3.25M 6th wknd, -27% for $107.3M total), but it's performance is still unimpressive given the big increases that both Godzilla and Dune have seen from their respective pandemic predecessors. Overseas still floundering, with just $80M total.

 

Dune: Part Two passes $700M global ($704M) after a $5M 9th wknd (2M Dom/3M OS). Headed for $715-720M. Should remain the biggest film of the year until June. 

[Arcadius]

Challengers was kinda giving twitter famous vibes. Everyone talked about it online which is great but I think it's weird it didn't translate whatsoever in ticket sales. 

[Gwendolyn]

r/boxoffice is being delusional if they think Mufasa will flop because 'no one asked for this'. just saw the trailer on TikTok with 400k likes and 100k shares, Mufusa is going to be the 'Wonka' of 2024. 

 

Sonic is definitely gonna suffer a bit against it. 

[Walk_Away21]

1 hour ago, Arcadius said:

Challengers was kinda giving twitter famous vibes. Everyone talked about it online which is great but I think it's weird it didn't translate whatsoever in ticket sales. 

People still need to learn Twitter is not real life. You'd think Challengers would be opening at $100mil domestic based on Twitter.

[BNF91]

Challengers must be blowing up on Tik Tok or something because it is having some incredible dailies so far. 

 

Monday was $1.63M, just -57% from Sunday

 

Tuesday is $2.6M, up a massive 60% from Monday. Challengers' 1st Tuesday is as big as Civil War's despite opening $10M less on the wknd. 

 

Looks like it could have some very nice legs. 

[Pinter]

On 4/30/2024 at 1:22 AM, Arcadius said:

Challengers was kinda giving twitter famous vibes. Everyone talked about it online which is great but I think it's weird it didn't translate whatsoever in ticket sales. 

They paid influencer to tweet/strying on their social media... So thats why lol

[Lovett]

[Liafen]

@BNF91 Do you know how Fall Guy is tracking? I'm so interested to see its performance - wonder if the massive goodwill from the Barbenheimer epidemic as well as a very successful and charming press run (Ryan SNL with viral moments, Ryan-Emily presenting at Oscars together etc) will lead to a runaway success.

[BNF91]

1 hour ago, Liafen said:

@BNF91 Do you know how Fall Guy is tracking? I'm so interested to see its performance - wonder if the massive goodwill from the Barbenheimer epidemic as well as a very successful and charming press run (Ryan SNL with viral moments, Ryan-Emily presenting at Oscars together etc) will lead to a runaway success.

Presales are sluggish and did not pick up despite the release being this weekend. Industry forecasts call for a $25-35M weekend. WoM is going to be the make or break for this film. 

 

Let's see how the weekend shakes out.