discussion Box Office Discussion | Moana 2, Wicked and Gladiator II - who's winning?

[fridayteenage]

elemental gradually walking towards a x5 multiplier in the US.

 

Last 10 years, $100 mil hits that made 20% or under of its final box office during opening weekend, excluding movies within a week of xmas:

Crazy rich asians 15.2% 

Knives out 16.2%  

Frozen 16.8% (ignoring the 5 days when it was open in literally 1 theater)

The mule 16.9% (12/14)

Top gun 2 17.6%

We're the millers 17.6%

Jumanji 3 18.5% (12/13)

Into the spider-verse 18.6% (12/14)

The upside 18.8%  

Get out 19%

Baby driver 19.1%

Avatar 2 19.6% (12/16)

Star is born 19.9% 

[$90 mil: Where the crawdads sing 19.1%]

 

Like CRA, Elemental is directed by Asian excellence. Though CRA, which by normal logic even with Covid as a factor should have finished the trilogy by now, still hasn't even started on the sequel.

[St. Charles]

I know I sound deranged but I laugh whenever Disney fails. Idk why

[Smarticle]

1 minute ago, St. Charles said:

I know I sound deranged but I laugh whenever Disney fails. Idk why

The McDonalds of film

 

[Blade Runner]

 

More powerful? Barbie or Tony Stark + Captain America + Thor + Hulk? Makes you think. 

[Hurem]

Sound of Freedom grossed $12.4M this weekend. It was predicted to do around $15-$16M.

 

It's not a big win but I'll take it  Chances of $200M are getting slimmer. Hope they take away it's screens next week.

[Da Vinci]

Can someone explain to me the whole Anti-Disney sentiment that started since maybe 2020? Or maybe it's been building up throughout the decade but people were just quiet cause of the nonstop successes and are only loud now that Disney is flopping? MPG teas tbh

 

Like for example, How To Train Your Dragon is getting a live action remake but nobody is giving that a fraction of the hate for Disney remaking their cartoons "Disney is ruining the industry!". Batman has been getting sequels, remakes, etc. since the 80s, same with Superman. I don't remember people hating superhero movies during Spider-Man and the X-Men's peaks in the 2000s.

 

And Idk if it's really just the anti-woke sheep that's hating Disney, there's been representation in most movies now, even the new Barbie has POC Barbies and a trans Barbie. There's even that stigma against "Disney Adults" now. If it's cause of corporations being evil then what about the other ones?

 

I'm no Disney stan by any means, maybe just a casual fan of the movies? Stanning companies is weird but I just wanna know why the hate has spiraled  

[St. Charles]

26 minutes ago, Da Vinci said:

Can someone explain to me the whole Anti-Disney sentiment that started since maybe 2020? Or maybe it's been building up throughout the decade but people were just quiet cause of the nonstop successes and are only loud now that Disney is flopping? MPG teas tbh

 

Like for example, How To Train Your Dragon is getting a live action remake but nobody is giving that a fraction of the hate for Disney remaking their cartoons "Disney is ruining the industry!". Batman has been getting sequels, remakes, etc. since the 80s, same with Superman. I don't remember people hating superhero movies during Spider-Man and the X-Men's peaks in the 2000s.

 

And Idk if it's really just the anti-woke sheep that's hating Disney, there's been representation in most movies now, even the new Barbie has POC Barbies and a trans Barbie. There's even that stigma against "Disney Adults" now. If it's cause of corporations being evil then what about the other ones?

 

I'm no Disney stan by any means, maybe just a casual fan of the movies? Stanning companies is weird but I just wanna know why the hate has spiraled  

I'm not sure what other people's reasons are, but I just hate things that are pervasive and dominant for too long. I feel like between Marvel movies, Disney+, Frozen, living near Disneyland, etc., it's just overwhelming. I saw a few Marvel movies over the last decade and they were alright, but I'm ready to move on and kinda just over their rehashes such as Lion King, Mermaid, etc. There is a bland, safe, forced family-friendliness that plagues their content (which is the point, I know) that as a young adult, I identify with less and less. I feel like there is a huge group of millennials that live off of nostalgia and wholesome vibes (obsessed with Harry Potter, Bubblegum Pop of 99/00, Disney media), and as a late Gen Z, I feel like I've always grown up in the fart trail of that culture. I've kinda come to resent it at this point. I'm ready to embrace new trends and ideas and not re-live "remember 2000 Toy Story DVD everything was good y'all?!!!?" every 3 weeks.

[teresaguidice]

1 hour ago, Da Vinci said:

Can someone explain to me the whole Anti-Disney sentiment that started since maybe 2020? Or maybe it's been building up throughout the decade but people were just quiet cause of the nonstop successes and are only loud now that Disney is flopping? MPG teas tbh

 

Like for example, How To Train Your Dragon is getting a live action remake but nobody is giving that a fraction of the hate for Disney remaking their cartoons "Disney is ruining the industry!". Batman has been getting sequels, remakes, etc. since the 80s, same with Superman. I don't remember people hating superhero movies during Spider-Man and the X-Men's peaks in the 2000s.

 

And Idk if it's really just the anti-woke sheep that's hating Disney, there's been representation in most movies now, even the new Barbie has POC Barbies and a trans Barbie. There's even that stigma against "Disney Adults" now. If it's cause of corporations being evil then what about the other ones?

 

I'm no Disney stan by any means, maybe just a casual fan of the movies? Stanning companies is weird but I just wanna know why the hate has spiraled  

the film industry was very different then. post monoculture death, post streaming, post covid, audiences go to the movies much less and producing films is much riskier. because of this, while never huge risk takers, studios have grown dramatically more risk averse and IP reliant in a way that they were not back then. mid budget movies rarely get made for theatrical release and blockbusters not based on IP are almost non-existent apart from those awful netflix action films. it's different when there are superheroes and sequels and tons of other films vs. only superheroes and sequels. 

 

the reason disney probably gets the brunt of online frustration about the state of film is because they've been the most successful and prolific creators of soulless conveyor belt IP releases (marvel, the live action remakes, etc). other studios are equally cynical, disney's just REALLY prominently so. so seeing disney (and thus the entire model that they helped blueprint) fail makes people hopeful we can enter a new era as the current one is pretty dire. 

Edited July 31, 2023 by teresaguidice

[Da Vinci]

24 minutes ago, teresaguidice said:

the film industry was very different then. post monoculture death, post streaming, post covid, audiences go to the movies much less and producing films is much riskier. because of this, while never huge risk takers, studios have grown dramatically more risk averse and IP reliant in a way that they were not back then. mid budget movies rarely get made for theatrical release and blockbusters not based on IP are almost non-existent apart from those awful netflix action films. it's different when there are superheroes and sequels and tons of other films vs. only superheroes and sequels. 

 

the reason disney probably gets the brunt of online frustration about the state of film is because they've been the most successful and prolific creators of soulless conveyor belt IP releases (marvel, the live action remakes, etc). other studios are equally cynical, disney's just REALLY prominently so. so seeing disney (and thus the entire model that they helped blueprint) fail makes people hopeful we can enter a new era as the current one is pretty dire. 

Yeah that's true, I kinda get it now

All the biggest hits in the 2010s are sequels and remakes of IPs from the 2000s and before, even Iron Man is from 2008. Meanwhile each decade before the 2010s had their own defining hits that debuted within the same decade (Ex: 2000s with Harry Potter 1, Pirates 1, Fellowship of the Ring, etc.)

In the 2020s we have Super Mario and Barbie so far, despite being really old brands at least they're relatively new movie franchises

[V$.]

 

 

[fridayteenage]

though potter pirates and lotr are all based on other things.

 

original movies that managed to top a year:

2009 avatar

 

1998 saving private ryan

1997 titanic

1996 independence day

1995 toy story 

1990 home alone

 

Feels almost impossible this century.

[V$.]

 

[Gwendolyn]

So is Barbie going to 'bomb' in Japan now? Unless they release an official apology and delay the release date (the atomic bomb days are the 6th and the 9th, Barbie is on the 11th) then I don't see this being the hit that we hoped it would be.

[Enrique523]

3 hours ago, Gwendolyn said:

So is Barbie going to 'bomb' in Japan now? Unless they release an official apology and delay the release date (the atomic bomb days are the 6th and the 9th, Barbie is on the 11th) then I don't see this being the hit that we hoped it would be.

I don't think every single Japanese person will boycott the film because of it. 

[BNF91]

$1B by next weekend maybe. Most likely. 

[Enrique523]

2 hours ago, BNF91 said:

$1B by next weekend maybe. Most likely. 

I'm just glad $1B is on lock by now, that was always my goal for Barbie. Anything more is just a bonus.

[Pop Art]

I will admit I know far less about the film industry than the music industry, but as a casual observer, it's so weird to me how there have been so many mid to extremely high budget films released this year and yet the vast majority of them have either underperformed, flopped, or absolutely bombed. Like is this as unprecedented as it seems to me? What is going on???

 

I have to wonder how much the major studios are in the red this year between not recouping the costs on all these flops and streaming being exposed recently as a money burning machine. I'd like to think the answer is for them to try something fresh and new and invest in new stories and talents, but I feel like they'll do the opposite and stick to what has sold well in the past out of fear of losing even more money. Idk though.

[Pop Art]

Like all the major studios seem to be bleeding this year for the most part if I'm correct? 

 

Disney

Ant Man — Underperformance

Guardians of the Galaxy — Success

The Little Mermaid — Moderate Success

Elemental — Underperformance

Indiana Jones — Flop

Haunted Mansion — Flop

 

Paramount

80 for Brady — Underperformance

Scream VI — Success

Dungeons & Dragons — Flop

Transformers — Underperformance

 Mission Impossible — Underperformance

 

Warner Brothers

Magic Mike — Bomb

Shazam! — Bomb

The Flash — Bomb

Barbie — Smash

 

Universal

Knock at the Cabin — Success

Cocaine Bear — Success

Super Mario Bros Movie — Smash

Renfield — Massive Bomb

Book Club — Bomb

Fast X — Underperformance

Ruby Gillman — Massive Bomb

Oppenheimer — Smash

 

Sony

65 — Massive Bomb

Spiderman — Smash

No Hard Feelings — Underperformance

[Price of Fame]

Barbie's  definitely outgross Mario, I wasn't sure after the opening weekend but it's weekday holds have been crazy

 

Oppenheimer getting 800+ million is still someone even more batshit and inexplicable though

 

[Aethereal]

10 hours ago, Gwendolyn said:

So is Barbie going to 'bomb' in Japan now? Unless they release an official apology and delay the release date (the atomic bomb days are the 6th and the 9th, Barbie is on the 11th) then I don't see this being the hit that we hoped it would be.

Even if it bombs in Japan, Mario's wig still is not safe. Barbie needs terrible legs after the summer break to miss Mario's numbers. 

 

5 hours ago, Pop Art said:

Like all the major studios seem to be bleeding this year for the most part if I'm correct? 

 

Disney

Ant Man — Underperformance

Guardians of the Galaxy — Success

The Little Mermaid — Moderate Success

Elemental — Underperformance

Indiana Jones — Flop

Haunted Mansion — Flop

 

Paramount

80 for Brady — Underperformance

Scream VI — Success

Dungeons & Dragons — Flop

Transformers — Underperformance

 Mission Impossible — Underperformance

 

Warner Brothers

Magic Mike — Bomb

Shazam! — Bomb

The Flash — Bomb

Barbie — Smash

 

Universal

Knock at the Cabin — Success

Cocaine Bear — Success

Super Mario Bros Movie — Smash

Renfield — Massive Bomb

Book Club — Bomb

Fast X — Underperformance

Ruby Gillman — Massive Bomb

Oppenheimer — Smash

 

Sony

65 — Massive Bomb

Spiderman — Smash

No Hard Feelings — Underperformance

Universal bombs have low budget. 

If the 50%-40% rule holds for the Book Club then it might break even with streaming depending on how much they spend on marketing. 

It only costed $20M  and made around $27M box office. Let's hope the marketing was not costly.

Edited July 31, 2023 by Aristotle

[Bosque]

5 hours ago, Pop Art said:

I will admit I know far less about the film industry than the music industry, but as a casual observer, it's so weird to me how there have been so many mid to extremely high budget films released this year and yet the vast majority of them have either underperformed, flopped, or absolutely bombed. Like is this as unprecedented as it seems to me? What is going on???

 

I have to wonder how much the major studios are in the red this year between not recouping the costs on all these flops and streaming being exposed recently as a money burning machine. I'd like to think the answer is for them to try something fresh and new and invest in new stories and talents, but I feel like they'll do the opposite and stick to what has sold well in the past out of fear of losing even more money. Idk though.

Especially the overseas markets are still weaker than they were pre-Covid, and they might not ever recover to the extent of 2019. China especially is a big problem - Hollywood blockbusters used to be near guaranteed to post big numbers in China (although American studios always received only ~25% of the box office gross from China, so big numbers in China kind of "inflated" the numbers without being financially useful for Hollywood), but nearly every Hollywood movie in recent years has tanked in China. Fast X was one of the biggest successes in China this year with just 140m, when even the latest spinoff Hobbs & Shaw did 200m in 2019. Also, a lot of movies this year had very inflated budgets, which was at least partially caused by expensive Covid shutdowns (for Indiana Jones and Mission Impossible). If those movies had cost a "normal" 150-200m, their box office would look much better.

 

Other than that, to an extent it is normal that some big budget movies flop, and other unexpected successes breakout. Super Mario, Spider Verse and Barbenheimer were big breakouts. Sound of Freedom, M3gan, Insidious, GotG3, John Wick, Scream, Elemental and Creed 3 all did quite well. Remember that Puss in Boots and Avatar 2 also made a lot of money this year, although they were released last year. 

 

I think to an extent, superhero fatigue has set in - people will go see amazing super-hero movies like Spider Verse and GotG 3, but movies like Shazam and Flash absolutely bombed. At the same time, the next big thing isn't here yet, but people seem to gravitate towards original stories again. 

 

I think movies that scream "I will watch it on streaming later" will be in big trouble going forward - like Ruby Gillmann, No Hard Feelings, the 15th Transformers movie, etc. On the other hand, No Hard Feelings is basically guaranteed to smash on Netflix later, so I think Sony will be happy with that one. 

Edited July 31, 2023 by Dephira

[Aethereal]

17 minutes ago, Dephira said:

I think movies that scream "I will watch it on streaming later" will be in big trouble going forward - like Ruby Gillmann, No Hard Feelings, the 15th Transformers movie, etc. On the other hand, No Hard Feelings is basically guaranteed to smash on Netflix later, so I think Sony will be happy with that one. 

I smell a streaming hit with Elementals too. Not sure with Ruby Gillman.

I wish the marketing budget was reported too.

[Broken]

2 hours ago, Dephira said:

, the next big thing isn't here yet. 

The r/boxoffice girls have been saying that video game movies are the next big thing. Lmaoooo.

 

If video game movie Gran Turismo BOMBS... 

Edited July 31, 2023 by Broken

[Gorjesspazze9]

People hate things that are popular and have longevity. The same thing happens to every major franchise. 
 

It’s not Marvel’s fault they were Main it girls this long🤭 

[Enrique523]

1 hour ago, Broken said:

The r/boxoffice girls have been saying that video game movies are the next big thing. Lmaoooo.

 

If video game movie Gran Turismo BOMBS... 

Yeah, just because Mario has been a smash doesn't mean that every video game adaptation is suddenly gonna be a big hit