discussion Box Office Discussion | Moana 2, Wicked and Gladiator II - who's winning?

[BNF91]

19 hours ago, Gorjesspazze9 said:

Hunger games won’t hit $300M. So it seems the top 15 of the year won’t change 

 

1. Barbie

2. Super Mario 

3. Oppenheimer 

4. Guardians of The Galaxy 3

5. fast X

6. Spider-Man ATSV

7.  The Little Mermaid 

8. Mission Impossible 

9. Elemental 

10. Antman 3

 

 

 

Hunger Games just did another $21M global weekend with holidays around the corner and pretty stellar legs. With $280M already, $300M is locked. 

[fridayteenage]

interesting that the-numbers has international movies on their global chart, while boxofficemojo owned by amazon does not. 

[poki]

Just want to throw put that I'm a die-hard Disney stan which is exactly why I constantly trash them these days. 

 

DO BETTER, Houdiney Mouse. 

 

OT:

All the clownery we faced this year in the box office

 

[poki]

Wait a Kung Fu Panda 4 trailer dropped 

 

I swear Dreamworks is like Russian Roulette but in reverse. 

[EnigmaticAndroid]

A24's Civil War has a 75M budget 

 

I'm glad that A24 is expanding alongside their auteur visions, but I have no clue if this will recoup as we look forward to next year. Given the storyline, it could easily be dependant on the domestic BO but could also be very polarizing and controversial to domestic audiences. Will be very interesting to follow. 

Edited December 15, 2023 by EnigmaticAndroid

[Arcadius]

6 hours ago, Hey Dude said:

Just want to throw put that I'm a die-hard Disney stan which is exactly why I constantly trash them these days. 

 

DO BETTER, Houdiney Mouse. 

 

OT:

All the clownery we faced this year in the box office

 

I think next year should be significantly better for Disney in both animation and Marvel with Inside Out 2 and Deadpool 3.

[BNF91]

12 hours ago, EnigmaticAndroid said:

A24's Civil War has a 75M budget 

 

I'm glad that A24 is expanding alongside their auteur visions, but I have no clue if this will recoup as we look forward to next year. Given the storyline, it could easily be dependant on the domestic BO but could also be very polarizing and controversial to domestic audiences. Will be very interesting to follow. 

This movie seems like the type to get bad audience scores. This trailer is suggesting a pretty straightforward premise, but it's Alex garland lol. Think audiences might go in expecting a straight up action thriller and I feel it won't be like that. 

 

$75M budget for A24 is steep, jesus.

[Da Vinci]

The title is such a set up  

 

 

 

[BNF91]

The Color Purple already has dozens of sold out shows across the country. Showtimes continue to be added for Xmas Day. Overall, it has already fully sold 34% of available tickets for Xmas Day showings. The boys at the presales tracking forum are going nuts about it. 

 

Quoting a post of confusing presale data but really just look at the bolded text at the bottom. INSANE. 

 

"Well I found T-0 Sat at MTC-1 for Mario

 

Mario MTC1 Sat - 402506/1695402 5677818.34 10284 shows

 

Kids movie on Saturday so the matinee percentage should be much closer to what TCP is doing, plus very low ATP that should in theory make it a good comp. Also pulled out T-1 Fri for PAW Patrol since it also seems to tick all the boxes and is also a weekday release with no previews like TCP

 

MTC1 Friday(T-1)

Paw Patrol - 52210/465001 652465.64 3134 shows 

 

Obviously TCP hasn't hit Mario T-0 levels yet, nor does it even have the capacity to get there right now, but over 100K tickets sold this far out is banaaaanas

 

Obviously skewed T-10 to T-0 comps that can only mathematically go up - Mario ($17.27M), PAW Patrol ($15.95M)

 

Considering this is a T-10 to T-0 comp and TCP isn't gonna be like Taylor Swift with zero late sales, don't really see any reason this goes under $20M for Christmas Day and honestly it's looking more like a $25-30M Xmas gross with how big volume and how good pace is right now"

 

Edited December 16, 2023 by BNF91

[Arcadius]

Wonka’s A- is nothing incredible, however it should definitely push it through the Holiday season and leg out. With how much stronger its international WOM is I see it hitting 300M+. 

[fridayteenage]

cinemascore:

a- mary poppins returns

a- wonka

 

metascore:

66 mary poppins returns

66 wonka

 

poppins did better with awards tho.

[BNF91]

A $40M debut the weekend before holidays sets it up very well to maybe get $180-200M domestic. Waiting to see international numbers for this weekend to see how high that can finish.

 

But with a $125M budget, profitability is locked. 

[barbiegrande]

Do yall think Wicked will do better or worse than Wonka?

[BNF91]

Hunger Games hits $300M already with a $14M global weekend, another stellar hold. Holidays coming up, $350M isn't out of the question. 

[BNF91]

Wonka has a fantastic $53M 2nd weekend overseas, up from last weekend. Coupled with the $39M domestic debut and the film has already flown past $150M global before the holiday season. 

 

This could definitely go past $500M global, if not more!

[Arcadius]

Wow I’m honestly surprised but it does show how much strong WOM can do. 
 

 

[Lovett]

36 minutes ago, Arcadius said:

Wow I’m honestly surprised but it does show how much strong WOM can do. 
 

Deserved, tbh. It was really enjoyable.

[Haus-Of_Mck]

Hunger Games and Wonka winning

[Hurem]

 

[BNF91]

Screaming at this tweet and the total lack of box office awareness. How it has 6000 likes is beyond me 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 18, 2023 by BNF91

[ctlp27]

What has been great about Chalamet is the way he has been building his career. 

 

I think with Wonka doing so well, he finally achieved what very few have done in the last two generations: being a movie star.

 

Since CMBYN, he has made very intelligent (and impressive) choices, including for his mandatory blockbuster post-indie.

 

I really hope for him he stays away of any DC/Marvel/Sony-verse type of things. He clearly doesn't need it. 

Edited December 18, 2023 by ctlp27

[barbiegrande]

Movie theaters might not ever reach the heights they once did, but I love seeing the de-centralization of Hollywood schlock and more audiences willing to show up for international/independent films. 

[Arcadius]

13 hours ago, BNF91 said:

Screaming at this tweet and the total lack of box office awareness. How it has 6000 likes is beyond me 

 

 

 

 

Screaming at the community notes clocking. Idky MCU stans just can’t take the L in peace and move on, that’s what the 5 DCEU stans been doing. 

[fridayteenage]

4 hours ago, ctlp27 said:

What has been great about Chalamet is the way he has been building his career. 

 

I think with Wonka doing so well, he finally achieved what very few have done in the last two generations: being a movie star.

 

Since CMBYN, he has made very intelligent (and impressive) choices, including for his mandatory blockbuster post-indie.

 

I really hope for him he stays away of any DC/Marvel/Sony-verse type of things. He clearly doesn't need it. 

It's hard to tell without a non-ip hit

 

[Da Vinci]

Really proves that Suzuki (the producer) ****** up with that out of touch "no marketing no promo no trailers" strategy in Japan where it underperformed  Like what what was he thinking/expecting? So mind boggling and arrogant, probably used all the marketing budget to fund his gf's flop business like before