discussion Box Office Discussion | Moana 2, Wicked and Gladiator II - who's winning?

[fridayteenage]

worst drops for $10 mil+ openings

friday the 13th 80.4%

halloween ends 80%

the marvels 78.1%

all eyez on me 78%

dragon ball super 77.8%

 

jonas brothers concert 77.4%

the photograph 77.1%

five nights at freddys 76.2%

devil inside 76.2%

star trek nemesis 76.2%

[trainsskyscrapers]

9 hours ago, ronelmaano13 said:

With the tragic second weekend numbers of Renaissance Film, I doubt it will equal out in the end. 

*Shrugs* Like flipping her Coachella performance into ownership of the IP and the ability to sell it back to Netflix, or acquiring her masters from Columbia Records after keeping the lights on there for much of the late 90s/early 00s, Beyoncé always plays the long game. I'm not worried. She and her team have proven to be shrewd boardroom negotiators. In this case, that box office #1 in her first week is the most important bargaining tool. 

[Odette Violet]

Unrelated but can't wait for Wish to hit Disney Plus. The movie is promising 

[jdanton2]

 Trolls Band Together is holding up better than the more recently released  animated film Wish.

[Da Vinci]

The Boy and the Heron fulfilling Western audiences' wish for excellent 2D hand-drawn animation  Asian excellence!

[Poxy]

GKIDS… her reign is upon us! Support their releases!

[ronelmaano13]

11 hours ago, trainsskyscrapers said:

*Shrugs* Like flipping her Coachella performance into ownership of the IP and the ability to sell it back to Netflix, or acquiring her masters from Columbia Records after keeping the lights on there for much of the late 90s/early 00s, Beyoncé always plays the long game. I'm not worried. She and her team have proven to be shrewd boardroom negotiators. In this case, that box office #1 in her first week is the most important bargaining tool. 

All those words and still the film bombed. I wonder how this will affect the value of the film when the time comes for her to release it to streaming platforms. 

 

I mean, will it add value to whatever platform she plans to license it to? If her fans didn't show up for her to watch the film in theaters, what more in streaming? Her leverage is gone. 

[Lovett]

 

[EnigmaticAndroid]

The Color Purple shaping up to be the big breakout hit as we enter the new year iktr 

[fridayteenage]

renaissance did better than the estimate, 5.475 million, -75% instead of -77%.

[BNF91]

Yeah The Color Purple is exploding. Christmas opening day could now be $14-18M. I think higher though, the presales in some locations around the US compared to even blockbusters is insane. Sacramento screens has the presales at 2x Oppenheimer's, 1.3x Barbie's  take the comp with a grain of salt because it is one single market, but that's still insane.

 

Expect a dropoff the next day despite it being boxing day, but it will play well through the holidays and then benefit from MLK weekend right after. 

 

Definitely can be a $100M domestic grosser. 

 

 

Edited December 12, 2023 by BNF91

[supaspaz]

6 hours ago, BNF91 said:

Sacramento screens has the presales at 2x Oppenheimer's, 1.3x Barbie's 

That's random as hell. This isn't exactly Atlanta or Washington, D.C.

[BNF91]

11 hours ago, supaspaz said:

That's random as hell. This isn't exactly Atlanta or Washington, D.C.

Btw those Sacramento comps are without including the theatre that traditionally performs best for Black audiences, apparently. Minneapolis presales are even suggesting a $13M opening day. Capturing multiple demographics it seems!

[Hurem]

I'm so happy The Color Purple is gaining traction

[BNF91]

Orlando presales suggest a $19M opening day for TCP.. 

 

I'm starting to think that The Color Purple could end up doing $150-200M+ domestically alone. But $100M is the goal right now. 

 

Presales through the holidays look strong. Even the Tuesday after Xmas for TCP has higher presales than Wonka's opening Friday this week 

 

Think we may see a surprise breakout smash here. 

 

 

Edited December 13, 2023 by BNF91

[Lovett]

28 minutes ago, BNF91 said:

Orlando presales suggest a $19M opening day for TCP.. 

 

I'm starting to think that The Color Purple could end up doing $150-200M+ domestically alone. But $100M is the goal right now. 

 

Presales through the holidays look strong. Even the Tuesday after Xmas for TCP has higher presales than Wonka's opening Friday this week 

 

Think we may see a surprise breakout smash here. 

Every post you make in here is getting me more and more excited! 

[Heartbreak Prince]

I thought Wonka’s $43 million opener was worldwide  I was wondering why people were saying it was good because the budget was $125 million. Only just realised that doesn’t include the US box office. Yeah it’s a smash.

[Arcadius]

Yeah I’m seeing more people talk about TCP and going to see it. Thank god this won’t be another West Side Story situation.

[BNF91]

Hunger Games holding much better than I thought it would. Now it will still benefit from the holidays so $160M is a wrap, $170M possible. 

[BNF91]

9 hours ago, Heartbreak Prince said:

I thought Wonka’s $43 million opener was worldwide  I was wondering why people were saying it was good because the budget was $125 million. Only just realised that doesn’t include the US box office. Yeah it’s a smash.

It's also just 37 territories, usually when a film has a full global release it's like 75/80 territories, so it still has many places around the world to open aside from the US. Smashing for sure. 

[BNF91]

10 hours ago, Lovett said:

Every post you make in here is getting me more and more excited! 

Yeah it's gonna be a hit for sure. Just keeping the brakes on anything past $100M because Ali opened with very similar circumstances and had an inflated Xmas Day relative to it's final gross. 

 

TCP should be leggier than Ali though especially as it's targeting mostly women. 

[BNF91]

Like.. damn. 

 

2 Local New Jersey Theaters Christmas Day T-11:

 

The Color Purple - 553 (8 shows)

Wonka - 70 (8 shows)

Aquaman 2 - 15 (8 shows)

Ferrari - 61 (7 shows)

Migration - 14 (9 shows)

The Iron Claw - 0 (7 shows)

Poor Things - 0 (6 shows)

Boys in the Boat - 25 (7 shows)

Anyone But You - 0 (8 shows)

 

 

Color Purple continuing to be a monster. Ferrari has jumped tremendously. Gonna be a big adult/arthouse title. AQM2 lost seats. There's still time😬 Boys in the Boat joined with an encouraging result. Iron Claw is DOA.

[Poxy]

The Color Slayage is coming 

[Gorjesspazze9]

Hunger games won’t hit $300M. So it seems the top 15 of the year won’t change 

 

1. Barbie

2. Super Mario 

3. Oppenheimer 

4. Guardians of The Galaxy 3

5. fast X

6. Spider-Man ATSV

7.  The Little Mermaid 

8. Mission Impossible 

9. Elemental 

10. Antman 3

 

 

 

[Arcadius]

18 hours ago, Gorjesspazze9 said:

Hunger games won’t hit $300M. So it seems the top 15 of the year won’t change 

 

1. Barbie

2. Super Mario 

3. Oppenheimer 

4. Guardians of The Galaxy 3

5. fast X

6. Spider-Man ATSV

7.  The Little Mermaid 

8. Mission Impossible 

9. Elemental 

10. Antman 3

 

 

 

This list is false, Antman 3 is actually #14. 
https://m.imdb.com/list/ls562149420/