discussion Box Office Discussion | Kids yearn for the mines as Minecraft projects WW 130M+OW

[Ms. Togekiss]

Yeah idk why people overestimated the eras tour 

[BNF91]

5 hours ago, Arcadius said:

Why is the Sydney Sweeney/ Glen Powell movie coming out the week of Christmas when it’s clearly a Valentines film? 

So I have a theory on why some films have been getting questionable release dates lately. I think it's because studios want the films to have almost two lives. First theatrical then on streaming services. In particular, Anybody But You can have a 6 week wide release before releasing on streaming and digital for valentine's. 

 

The Haunted Mansion also comes to mind. A weird summer release by Disney, but now it is a featured film for streaming on Disney+ for the whole month for Halloween which just guarantees viewership. 

[BNF91]

1 hour ago, Ms. Togekiss said:

Yeah idk why people overestimated the eras tour 

Presales got people dreaming pie in the sky numbers. 

 

Walk-up ticket sales have been pretty much non-existent, which is never the norm for actual movies. It's all presales from fans for TET. 

[Arcadius]

15 minutes ago, BNF91 said:

So I have a theory on why some films have been getting questionable release dates lately. I think it's because studios want the films to have almost two lives. First theatrical then on streaming services. In particular, Anybody But You can have a 6 week wide release before releasing on streaming and digital for valentine's. 

 

The Haunted Mansion also comes to mind. A weird summer release by Disney, but now it is a featured film for streaming on Disney+ for the whole month for Halloween which just guarantees viewership. 

Yeah, I've noticed this as well, I think studios are making more off digital than they perceive. 

[Gossip_Boy]

People who thought Eras would play like a regular blockbuster were delusional. But these are excellent numbers for a concert film regardless.

Edited October 14, 2023 by Gossip_Boy

[Gossip_Boy]

I’m very interested in seeing how FNaF will perform. According to BOT it’s tracking big, but I could see it being frontloaded. Big early pre-sales thanks to the fanbase and start stalling later on. 

[Gorjesspazze9]

Worldwide

[chiliam]

Usung flop or overestimated for Tet movie is insane.

After the weekend its already have the record for highest grossing concert movie in the US and WW.

And even with this being a frontload mess. It will at least double those records. And there will be no other artists get to those number anytime soon.

Thats why sonetimes i hate long trange prediction. Or hate the people judging the success base in how well the project did compare to predictions rather than on its own.

[BNF91]

Early Saturday estimate- $28-29M

 

Should aim for $82-87M weekend

 

Edit: Make that $32M, so $90M wknd still possible 

Edited October 15, 2023 by BNF91

[Johnnyboi]

Pre-Sales really messed up people’s predictions for Eras. Hopefully it can pass Joker but that’s looking harder and harder to do.

 

FNAF might actually be the first October movie with a $100 mil debut unless it also walk up weak. 

[FENTY.]

 

[Gossip_Boy]

The Exorcist held up a lot better than I thought it would.

[Sweetestsecret]

$97M on box office https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-taylor-swift-eras-tour/

[Blade Runner]

17 hours ago, Johnnyboi said:

Pre-Sales really messed up people’s predictions for Eras. Hopefully it can pass Joker but that’s looking harder and harder to do.

 

FNAF might actually be the first October movie with a $100 mil debut unless it also walk up weak. 

Ok, but what the hell is FNAF? jgjgfj

[Johnnyboi]

11 minutes ago, Blade Runner said:

Ok, but what the hell is FNAF? jgjgfj

Five Nights at Freddy’s. Thursday night numbers are already super strong at 17-18 mil. 

[EnigmaticAndroid]

On 10/14/2023 at 12:53 PM, BNF91 said:

Presales got people dreaming pie in the sky numbers. 

 

Walk-up ticket sales have been pretty much non-existent, which is never the norm for actual movies. It's all presales from fans for TET. 

This. Unless it broke out in some unprecedented way, Eras Tour was never going to have even decent walk ups. This is a fan event and people needed to consider that more. 

[family.guy123]

https://reddit.com/r/boxoffice/s/kxVHQtjTPf

[barbiegrande]

9 hours ago, Johnnyboi said:

Five Nights at Freddy’s. Thursday night numbers are already super strong at 17-18 mil. 

That’s crazy considering is releasing on Peacock simultaneously.

[Gesamtkunstwerk]

2 hours ago, barbiegrande said:

That’s crazy considering is releasing on Peacock simultaneously.

This game used to be huge, people who played it are now around 17+ and have their own money to spend on tickets to the cinema. I know my younger brother and all his friends are going to see it in the cinema for nostalgia.

 

Maybe the studio played it right 

[ctlp27]

I mentioned this previously, but some individuals had unrealistic expectations regarding its performance. It's worth noting that these figures are indeed exceptional (Worldwide, as expected is really not that great), especially given the relatively high ticket prices, as will be the case with Renaissance. This differs from "This Is It," which had standard ticket pricing.

 

When it comes to viewing concerts or plays in cinemas (such as the MET, Opera, Andre Rieu, etc.), nearly 95% of the audience purchases tickets in advance. Rarely does someone spontaneously decide on a Friday to attend a concert by an artist they don't already have a strong preference for.

 

I also suspect that the lower-than-expected numbers might be due to social media videos showcasing wild behavior. Some potential viewers may have opted to wait a bit beyond the opening weekend frenzy for a more relaxed and enjoyable screening experience.

Edited October 16, 2023 by ctlp27

[BNF91]

Definitely don't think that $96M sticks. Sunday drop way too generous. 

 

Low 90's actual IMO.

 

Gonna be interesting to see how this one plays out considering it does not show on weekdays. 

 

 

[BNF91]

Actuals for TET come in a few million lower. $92.8M domestic and $123M global. 

[Gorjesspazze9]

And at the end of the day it’s still opening up over $100M told y’all to stop overreacting after 2 days of presales last week. 

[Katy V.!]

On 10/14/2023 at 11:52 AM, BNF91 said:

So I have a theory on why some films have been getting questionable release dates lately. I think it's because studios want the films to have almost two lives. First theatrical then on streaming services. In particular, Anybody But You can have a 6 week wide release before releasing on streaming and digital for valentine's. 

 

The Haunted Mansion also comes to mind. A weird summer release by Disney, but now it is a featured film for streaming on Disney+ for the whole month for Halloween which just guarantees viewership. 

The Haunted Mansion is what a direct-to-streaming release will look from now on. It was basically dumped with no promo (they're lowkey grateful they didn't have to keep burning money during the strike ) but just in time for an October Disney+ release with a big push around its holiday. 

 

They've already proved that they can turn theatrical bombs into global juggernauts so there's no reason to skip theatrical and anger everyone. 

[BNF91]

Forecast for this coming weekend has The Eras Tour and Killers of the Flower Moon head to head, both in the low 30M range (62-67% drop for TET)

 

Thought TET would hold better considering no weekday play. Global take might just crawl past $200M when all is said and done. 

 

Tracking for future films has Five Nights at Freddy's killing presales, Wish fortunately on the rise after horrible presales, and The Marvels completely stagnating with very worrying presales. Not sure if The Marvels can get to $80M with its current presales tracking. It might be really ugly for that one.