Chiidish Posted April 25, 2023 Share Posted April 25, 2023 The lashings all I know is voting blue no matter what until the courts are rebalanced and certain rights are codified into law. So we can either get our collective **** together and elect someone who can actually do **** (unlikely) or we can keep settling for the lessor evil of the status quo and continue this slow dance of 1 step forward 3 steps back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScorpiosGroove Posted April 25, 2023 Share Posted April 25, 2023 i thought he’d die a lot sooner ngl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vermillion Posted April 25, 2023 Share Posted April 25, 2023 My bet is the same it's been for about a year: If it's Biden vs. Trump the Electoral College is a toss-up. If it's Biden vs. DeSantis, DeSantis wins the Electoral College with a comfortable margin larger than Trump's in 2016. Both Trump and DeSantis would handily lose the popular vote by a large margin as Republicans have always done now since Bush. Inflation competes strongly with the Dobbs decision, the latter of which will still hold potency for the left and right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dula Peep Posted April 25, 2023 Share Posted April 25, 2023 We love a rematch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClashAndBurn Posted April 25, 2023 Share Posted April 25, 2023 1 hour ago, Rep2000 said: Trump looks like he's going to be the GOP nominee thou Doesn’t really matter. The difference is that Trump isn’t currently in charge in the middle of a global pandemic disaster. The level of urgency won’t quite be there. Plus, because of geographic partisanship (for the Electoral College), Democrats have to be polling a lot higher than they currently are in order to clear the bar for winning elections. Biden needs to be polling at a minimum of +5 nationally to win and he’s currently polling at -6 to “generic Republican” and within the margin of error in head-to-heads against both Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bears01 Posted April 25, 2023 Share Posted April 25, 2023 13 minutes ago, Espresso said: My bet is the same it's been for about a year: If it's Biden vs. Trump the Electoral College is a toss-up. If it's Biden vs. DeSantis, DeSantis wins the Electoral College with a comfortable margin larger than Trump's in 2016. Both Trump and DeSantis would handily lose the popular vote by a large margin as Republicans have always done now since Bush. Inflation competes strongly with the Dobbs decision, the latter of which will still hold potency for the left and right. No matter who the GOP nominee is, it’ll always come down to these states: MI, PA, WI, AZ, NV, GA, NC. I think in todays world, the days of big electoral blowout wins are over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bears01 Posted April 25, 2023 Share Posted April 25, 2023 Just now, ClashAndBurn said: Doesn’t really matter. The difference is that Trump isn’t currently in charge in the middle of a global pandemic disaster. The level of urgency won’t quite be there. Plus, because of geographic partisanship (for the Electoral College), Democrats have to be polling a lot higher than they currently are in order to clear the bar for winning elections. Biden needs to be polling at a minimum of +5 nationally to win and he’s currently polling at -6 to “generic Republican” and within the margin of error in head-to-heads against both Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis. State polling is more important directly. Recent polling shows that in the states needed to win the presidency (WI, AZ, PA, MI, NV) Desantis beats Biden, while Biden beats trump while it’s within the MOE in both scenarios. Even then, talking about polling 19 months ahead is stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vermillion Posted April 25, 2023 Share Posted April 25, 2023 10 minutes ago, Bears01 said: No matter who the GOP nominee is, it’ll always come down to these states: MI, PA, WI, AZ, NV, GA, NC. I think in todays world, the days of big electoral blowout wins are over They've been over since 2000 and aren't coming back, so I find even entertaining the hypothetical to be a waste-of-time. Since the late 90's when the parties completed their alignment (or claimed ideals) to its members on lines of culture and identity, especially. Given the intense voter suppression work the GA GOP has done since Jon Ossoff squeaked through a win entirely on Warnock's back and Biden's failure to follow-through on student loan forgiveness at SCOTUS, the youth black vote in Atlanta is cancelled out and Biden's not winning GA's EC. NCDems ground game and infrastructure (despite recent tighter margins) is still not up to par outside the Research Triangle and AZ's more pissed about immigration than Dobbs, so I'm ruling both EC's out there as well. So I do think it's back to MI, PA and WI per usual with NV as an outlier in that conversation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxxxine Posted April 25, 2023 Share Posted April 25, 2023 Enough. Let this decrepit living corpse rest. Put her up in a mausoleum and throw away the key! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClashAndBurn Posted April 25, 2023 Share Posted April 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, Bears01 said: State polling is more important directly. Recent polling shows that in the states needed to win the presidency (WI, AZ, PA, MI, NV) Desantis beats Biden, while Biden beats trump while it’s within the MOE in both scenarios. Even then, talking about polling 19 months ahead is stupid. Biden being a deeply unpopular incumbent at this point is not a good sign, no matter whom his opponent ends up being. Biden hasn’t been on an actual campaign trail in almost twelve years. He hid in his basement for all of 2020. Frankly I don’t think he’s physically capable of even surviving the kind rigorous campaign that he would need to undergo in order to surmount his obvious shortcomings. He doesn’t even do interviews. He’s extremely guarded and doesn’t even interact with friendly softball pitchers at WaPo and NYT. And it’s not hard to see why, given how his VP flops in softball interviews with people like Lester Holt just as badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beyonnaise Posted April 25, 2023 Share Posted April 25, 2023 I maintain my prediction that there will be a Ross Perot third-party spoiler this election. It’s still early, and a lot of factors can change. The large majority of people do not want either Biden or Trump, and there is a lot of appetite for something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cain Posted April 25, 2023 Share Posted April 25, 2023 Welp, congrats to whoever the Republican candidate is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Contessa Posted April 25, 2023 Share Posted April 25, 2023 Third-party/write-in it is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClashAndBurn Posted April 25, 2023 Share Posted April 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, Beyonnaise said: I maintain my prediction that there will be a Ross Perot third-party spoiler this election. It’s still early, and a lot of factors can change. The large majority of people do not want either Biden or Trump, and there is a lot of appetite for something else. There have been rumblings of Joe Manchin running potentially as an independent, so you could be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FameFatale Posted April 25, 2023 Share Posted April 25, 2023 Oh this is why Fox News had wall to wall coverage of “Biden being too old” yesterday sure they knew this was coming. The way they act like Trump isn’t only 3 years younger than Biden But honestly I liked the video. He released it today because he announced his 2020 run the same day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATRL Administrator Ryan Posted April 25, 2023 ATRL Administrator Share Posted April 25, 2023 Go get ‘em, President Joe! I pray the coalition of voters will once again prevail over GOP extremism. 4 more years! 4 more years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vermillion Posted April 25, 2023 Share Posted April 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, ClashAndBurn said: There have been rumblings of Joe Manchin running potentially as an independent, so you could be correct. Joe Manchin is not running for president, ever. Joe Manchin is keeping everyone guessing to keep getting elected as a Dem in a +40 Trump state with the only sure-thing allegiances being to coal, big oil and healthcare conglomerates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sesame Posted April 25, 2023 Share Posted April 25, 2023 You’re literally EIGHTY years old. ******* retire you hack. He won’t even be able to make it to the end of the term without using a cane like are you joking me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frogger17 Posted April 25, 2023 Share Posted April 25, 2023 Ya'll coming in here with these endless corny age jokes thinking you're being clever .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sesame Posted April 25, 2023 Share Posted April 25, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClashAndBurn Posted April 25, 2023 Share Posted April 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, FameFatale said: Oh this is why Fox News had wall to wall coverage of “Biden being too old” yesterday sure they knew this was coming. The way they act like Trump isn’t only 3 years younger than Biden But honestly I liked the video. He released it today because he announced his 2020 run the same day. No, they've been covering it because polling has BEEN showinig that 70% of the country does NOT want Joe Biden to run, with 69% of that 70% saying that his age is a factor. The contrast with Trump of course is that "only" 60% don't want him to run either. The fact that more people actively don't want Biden should be a warning sign. 4 minutes ago, Espresso said: Joe Manchin is not running for president, ever. Joe Manchin is keeping everyone guessing to keep getting elected as a Dem in a +40 Trump state with the only sure-thing allegiances being to coal, big oil and healthcare conglomerates. I doubt he runs for Senate in West Virginia as a Democrat. He has to know by now that his days are numbered, and that he only made it in 2018 because Trump wasn't on the ballot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklyndaddy Posted April 25, 2023 Share Posted April 25, 2023 12 minutes ago, Contessa said: Third-party/write-in it is! … so you want trump or desantis as president? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClashAndBurn Posted April 25, 2023 Share Posted April 25, 2023 Just now, brooklyndaddy said: … so you want trump or desantis as president? Clearly that's what the Democrats want, since they're forcing a conservative octogenarian that 70% of Americans DO NOT WANT to run again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklyndaddy Posted April 25, 2023 Share Posted April 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, ClashAndBurn said: Clearly that's what the Democrats want, since they're forcing a conservative octogenarian that 70% of Americans DO NOT WANT to run again. So tell me ClashAndBurn! When it’s Trump and Biden on the ballot, who are you voting for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaia Posted April 25, 2023 Share Posted April 25, 2023 So avoiding conferences and canceled democratic debates. they’re trying to win election default but the replublicans are going to push ahead with Biden as main ticket again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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