charts discussion Hot 100 final predictions (lip): Anti-Hero 5x #1, AIWFCIY #5, I'm Good (Blue) #6

[Triton]

Cuff It 11 points from top 10… c’mon! 

[Lovett]

Cuff It about to jump into the top 10 after the Christmas freeze!  It'd be there this week without the Christmas songs already being so high... in November.

[trainsskyscrapers]

1 hour ago, Sweetestsecret said:

Lol star walkin' is done just like like lil nas career,I don't know why you still have hopes 

 

1 hour ago, Insanity said:

Let them have their hopes damn man

I'm sure y'all said the same thing when "Holiday" came out.... only to be STEAMROLLED by "Montero (Call Me By Your Name)", "Industry Baby", and "That's What I Want". 

 

[ucanfma]

Just now, trainsskyscrapers said:

 

I'm sure y'all said the same thing when "Holiday" came out.... only to be STEAMROLLED by "Montero (Call Me By Your Name)", "Industry Baby", and "That's What I Want". 

 

They never learn

[Sweetestsecret]

32 minutes ago, trainsskyscrapers said:

 

I'm sure y'all said the same thing when "Holiday" came out.... only to be STEAMROLLED by "Montero (Call Me By Your Name)", "Industry Baby", and "That's What I Want". 

 

 

31 minutes ago, ucanfma said:

They never learn

Holiday was released during Christmas and it was never meant to be a single with longevity..it was released cause of Christmas time... Lil Nas 

had two flops in a row this year with 'Late to da party' feat YoungBoy Never Broke Again and now with the solo song 'Star walkin'...  this is not the same situation with Holiday, he should be worried that two songs underperformed the same year even with the huge radio payola.. this is not good and just because lil nas was a member here in the past it doesn't mean that you have to be 

 delusional and support him,he is flopping,this is the truth..he didn't have a successful year...

Edited November 27, 2022 by Sweetestsecret

[istan4badgalriri]

Not flop Lift Me Up possibly getting 3 out of 4 weeks in the T10 despite Xmas takeover 

[jomarr]

So excited for Meghan. The song is so good.

[trainsskyscrapers]

11 minutes ago, Sweetestsecret said:

 

Holiday was released during Christmas and it was never meant to be a single with longevity..it was released cause of Christmas time... Lil Nas 

had two flops in a row this year with 'Late to da party' feat YoungBoy Never Broke Again and now with the solo song 'Star walkin'...  this is not the same situation with Holiday, he should be worried that two songs underperformed the same year even with the huge radio payola.. this is not good and just because lil nas was a member here in the past it doesn't mean that you have to be 

 delusional and support him,he is flopping,this is the truth..he didn't have a successful year...

(1) "Late To Da Party" was only sent to radio in ITALY.  Not sure what payola your research told you took place there.

 

(2) "Star Walkin" has survived all of the album bombs, and looks like it might just survive the Christmas freeze too. I forsee a similar rise to Post Malone / Doja this past quarter.

 

I'll quote you when it gets to Top 10 on Pop Radio, Top 20 on the Hot 100, and at least Platinum. (You might get quoted three times)

[Sweetestsecret]

10 minutes ago, trainsskyscrapers said:

(1) "Late To Da Party" was only sent to radio in ITALY.  Not sure what payola your research told you took place there.

 

(2) "Star Walkin" has survived all of the album bombs, and looks like it might just survive the Christmas freeze too. I forsee a similar rise to Post Malone / Doja this past quarter.

 

I'll quote you when it gets to Top 10 on Pop Radio, Top 20 on the Hot 100, and at least Platinum. (You might get quoted three times)

This is what I said: 'star walkin'  survived album bombs and Christmas songs so far cause of the huge radio payola.. and if you are proud that it's charting in #70-#60 positions on hot 100 then you are delusional...it's out of top 100 on USA iTunes,not charting on USA Spotify,not charting on USA apple music..and you expect a top 20 peak for the song on hot 100? Lol ..you are very delusional but I'm not surprised cause many members thought that 'star walkin'  was a legit number one smash hit when it was released (lol) .. the song is done like his career.. good luck with the next (flop) release..

Edited November 27, 2022 by Sweetestsecret

[Brando]

4 hours ago, DemDam92 said:

Mariah’s Xmas will become her 3rd song of the decade, mark my words.

Blinding Lights would be too hard to overcome. It's literally the biggest bb song of all time. She can get a lot of weeks at #1, but not enough overall weeks to challenge for the top spot 

[trainsskyscrapers]

Just now, Sweetestsecret said:

This is what I said: 'star walkin'  survived album bombs and Christmas songs so far cause of the huge radio payola.. and if you are proud that it's charting in #70-#60 positions on hot 100 then you are delusional...it's out of top 100 on iTunes,not charting on USA Spotify,not charting on USA apple music..and you expect to reach top 20 on hot 100? Lol ..you are very delusional but I'm not surprised cause many members thought that 'star walkin'  was a legit number one smash hit when it was released (lol) .. the song is done like his career.. good luck with the next (flop) release..

We'll talk soon. 

[DemDam92]

2 minutes ago, Brando said:

Blinding Lights would be too hard to overcome. It's literally the biggest bb song of all time. She can get a lot of weeks at #1, but not enough overall weeks to challenge for the top spot 

If Xmas continues to dominate the way it is and Billboard won’t change any rules I can see Mariah easily getting 20-25 weeks #1 just in this decade. 
It’s gonna be massive for her.

[QueenBeyoncé]

Cuff It

[Brando]

28 minutes ago, DemDam92 said:

If Xmas continues to dominate the way it is and Billboard won’t change any rules I can see Mariah easily getting 20-25 weeks #1 just in this decade. 
It’s gonna be massive for her.

I think she can spend 30 weeks at #1 and it would still not be enough to overcome blinding lights' ridiculous amount of weeks in the top 5, top 10 and overall weeks that all contribute to his points lead 

[1989]

Anti-Hero, what a smash 

[MALAMENTE]

Calm Down 12 weeks on the chart, not bad

[pride4jc1222]

4 hours ago, trainsskyscrapers said:

 

I'm sure y'all said the same thing when "Holiday" came out.... only to be STEAMROLLED by "Montero (Call Me By Your Name)", "Industry Baby", and "That's What I Want". 

 

I know, right. It's way too premature to call Lil Nas X's career done, especially after acts like Imagine Dragons, One Republic, and Sam Smith recorded their first big hits in years, with Meghan Trainor about to do the same. LNX is bigger than all those artists, and if those artists can randomly score hits after flopping for years on end, then I can guarantee that LNX will score some hits over the next 8 years unless he goes off the grid like LMFAO, Gotye, and Fun.

[Sinister]

4 hours ago, Brando said:

I think she can spend 30 weeks at #1 and it would still not be enough to overcome blinding lights' ridiculous amount of weeks in the top 5, top 10 and overall weeks that all contribute to his points lead 

BL spent over 90 weeks on the chart

 

Mariah spends, what? Roughly 6 weeks on the chart per year? That’s only 60 weeks for the decade. Now that it has hit 52 weeks it will start reentering once it has enough for top 25

[Brando]

19 minutes ago, Sinister said:

BL spent over 90 weeks on the chart

 

Mariah spends, what? Roughly 6 weeks on the chart per year? That’s only 60 weeks for the decade. Now that it has hit 52 weeks it will start reentering once it has enough for top 25

Ye, the main hurdle is Blinding Lights' total weeks in the Top 5 - 43 weeks. And an additional 14 weeks in the lower half of the Top 10 (most of them at #6 and #7). +25 more weeks in the Top 20. I'm not really good at estimating points, but I think missing an extra 30 weeks will play a huge role for Mariah, because the Weeknd spend essentially all but 6 of those 90 weeks in Top 25. 

[est. in 90s]

Not Anti-Hero and Cuff It being the non-holiday Winter/Christmas hits of 2022 

[umich]

11 hours ago, WeFoundTrouble said:

Sam Meghan and Taylor smashing is still such 2014 whiplash to me  We’ll see how high MYL can go but personally, for obvious reasons, I’m rooting for Lavender Haze to be the Dark Horse of winter 2023

It’s definitely Deja Vu.mp3. 
 

AATB-SIO was fun to watch because both were smashing and ended their singles run with huge numbers. Lot of people thought Lips are Movin would challenge Blank Space (me included ) but BS was just huge in its own right. Even if MYL can get to LAM’s levels, that would be great for her.

 

Taylor should debut the new single at the Grammys while AH do its thing for the next few months.

[killer_rose]

[vuelve88]

The seamless transition from one Venezuelan-American to another Venezuelan-American topping the charts. ? Proud of Taylor and Mariah. 

[pride4jc1222]

2 hours ago, umich said:

It’s definitely Deja Vu.mp3. 
 

AATB-SIO was fun to watch because both were smashing and ended their singles run with huge numbers. Lot of people thought Lips are Movin would challenge Blank Space (me included ) but BS was just huge in its own right. Even if MYL can get to LAM’s levels, that would be great for her.

 

Taylor should debut the new single at the Grammys while AH do its thing for the next few months.

I think it was apparent from Week 3 that Uptown Funk was going to be the song that challenged and eventually dethroned Blank Space. But that late 2014/early 2015 period was something else. All of the #1 hits (AATB, SIO, Blank Space, Uptown Funk, and See You Again) were so huge and inescapable.