charts discussion Projected Year-End Chart: 2022 Top Artists

[onewillowsilk]

4 hours ago, JuanitoKasicki said:

taylor's previous hot 100 stats arent good cus theyre indie-folk albums. no radio support and not popular outside of her fans. shes #6 on hot100 this year after 1 month of entry. she'll be up to speed on that soon.

 

Drake hasnt served consistency on hot100 for 2 years now, while taylor is miles above him on the top 200. shes already ahead of him in the race at this point & will trounce him on touring points as well when they both go on tour the next year.  

 

the race is between the weeknd and taylor. Drake can step aside. 

Taylor isn't MILES ahead of Drake in any Billboard rankings for this decade lol. You should really check these things before going off on a tangent based on what you feel or hope for.

 

These are Drake/Taylor's rankings on the Billboard 200/Hot 100 Artists Year-End charts for 2020 and 2021, respectively.

 

Billboard 200 Artists Year-End:

Drake: #4 (2020), #2 (2021)

Taylor Swift: #3 (2020), #1 (2021)

 

Hot 100 Artists Year-End:

Drake: #6 (2020), #2 (2021)

Taylor Swift: #22 (2020), #25 (2022)

 

Taylor just got ONE album that did well on the Hot 100 and you're here dismissing Drake entirely. Maybe your post is what you WISH to happen but it definitely isn't what's gonna happen with regards to Drake lol. 

 

You should also know that touring accounts for less than 10% of what's considered for the Artist of the Decade ranking. I believe the Hot 100/Billboard 200 account for 45% each or the Hot 100 accounts for even more than that. 

[Devin]

18 minutes ago, onewillowsilk said:

All the chart points for Her Loss don't count towards this year and he was always going to return to rap following the release of Honestly, Nevermind. Whether with a solo effort or a joint album like Her Loss. 

Definitely. Most of us knew he was experimenting or I guess his way of showing support to pride month. 

Not that being all Honestly, Nevermind this year. 

[onewillowsilk]

3 minutes ago, Devin said:

Definitely. Most of us knew he was experimenting or I guess his way of showing support to pride month. 

Not that being all Honestly, Nevermind this year. 

Yep. Also, keep in mind that he'll be getting half the chart points from Her Loss because it's a joint album so he'll need the strength of his catalog + maybe some new music as a solo/lead act to carry him in 2023. 

 

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he drops another album in 2023 tbh. On his radio show, he did an interview with 21 Savage the day the album dropped and 21 Savage said he'll be gearing up to release his solo album soon enough (perhaps Q1/Q2 2023 at the latest) and Drake also confirmed to have resumed work on new music already so both of them might drop solo albums in 2023. 

[Bonicap]

29 minutes ago, onewillowsilk said:

All the chart points for Her Loss don't count towards this year and he was always going to return to rap following the release of Honestly, Nevermind. Whether with a solo effort or a joint album like Her Loss. 

Isn't the first week of Her Loss counted this year? The chart goes from November 20, 2021 to November 12, 2022.

[JuanitoKasicki]

31 minutes ago, onewillowsilk said:

Taylor isn't MILES ahead of Drake in any Billboard rankings for this decade lol. You should really check these things before going off on a tangent based on what you feel or hope for.

 yea i was wrong. taylor isnt just miles ahead on the top 200. shes almost up by 2x.

 

 

 

31 minutes ago, onewillowsilk said:

These are Drake/Taylor's rankings on the Billboard 200/Hot 100 Artists Year-End charts for 2020 and 2021, respectively.

Taylor always releases her stuffs around oct/nov, the end of the chart year, so the "year end" top 200 ranking made it look weaker than it is.  

 

and again, as for the hot 100, she had only released re-recordings and indie-folk albums prior to this point. she #6 this year after just 1 month of entry. maybe you'd wish her singles chart score would still remain like 2020/2021, but thats not whats happening. 

 

31 minutes ago, onewillowsilk said:

You should also know that touring accounts for less than 10% of what's considered for the Artist of the Decade ranking

that iss true, but given theyre both gonna go on tour the next year and her box office will be 5-10x his, their gap will only continue to widen. 

 

obviously Drake can still overtake if he keeps up his pace of releasing 3 albums per year. so we'll see if he'll finally be oversaturated; but even he doesnt, his releaaess will continue to be 300k-450k debuts. not gonna give him that much Top 200 points, which is why i count him out at this point. 

 

 

Edited November 26, 2022 by JuanitoKasicki

[onewillowsilk]

1 minute ago, JuanitoKasicki said:

 yea i was wrong. taylor isnt just miles ahead on the top 200. shes almost up by 2x.

 

 

 

Taylor always releases her stuffs around oct/nov, the end of the chart year, so the "year end" top 200 ranking made it look weaker than it is.  

 

and again, as for the hot 100, she had only released re-recordings and indie-folk albums prior to this point. she #6 this year after just 1 month of entry. maybe you'd wish her singles chart score would still remain like 2020/2021, but thats not whats happening. 

 

that's true, but given theyre both going on tour the next year, their gap will only continue to widen. 

 

obviously Drake can still overtake if he keeps up his pace of releasing 3 albums per year. so we'll see if he'll finally be oversaturated. 

 

 

Why do you seem so pressed about Drake? 

 

He released a mixtape in 2020 and one album in 2021. Taylor released 2 albums in 2020 and 2 re-recordings (with tons of new music on them) in 2021 that were pushed and treated the same way she treated her albums so that's basically 4 albums in 2 years lol. 2022 is the only year Drake has dropped more music than Taylor this decade and she has still dropped like 20+ more songs than him in total if you count the total number of songs they've released so far this decade. 

 

Again, she isn't MILES ahead of him on the Billboard 200 rankings so far this decade. They've ranked one spot next to each so far this decade on the Billboard 200 Artists Year-End chart in 2020, 2021 and 2022. She has more chart points, yes, but the same argument can be made for how Drake has outdone her on the Hot 100 so far this decade lol. 

 

Drake has the benefit of having a catalog as strong as Taylor's that will comfortably carry him throughout this decade, even when he doesn't smash with a new album (proven this year when Honestly, Nevermind underperformed compared to his previous albums and he's still projected to be ranked as the #4 on Billboard's Top Artist Year-End chart). 

 

The fact that you were so quick to dismiss Drake as this fad that's now finally over when he's the only one you can say will keep up with Taylor this decade is hilarious. It shows you indeed see him as a threat because unless Post Malone/The Weeknd can replicate the success of their biggest album eras in this decade, they won't keep up with Drake/Taylor. 

 

 

[RobynYoBank]

Olivia will be the real threat competing with Drake/Taylor this decade. 

[JuanitoKasicki]

21 minutes ago, onewillowsilk said:

Why do you seem so pressed about Drake? 

 

He released a mixtape in 2020 and one album in 2021. Taylor released 2 albums in 2020 and 2 re-recordings (with tons of new music on them) in 2021 that were pushed and treated the same way she treated her albums so that's basically 4 albums in 2 years lol. 2022 is the only year Drake has dropped more music than Taylor this decade and she has still dropped like 20+ more songs than him in total if you count the total number of songs they've released so far this decade. 

 

Again, she isn't MILES ahead of him on the Billboard 200 rankings so far this decade. They've ranked one spot next to each so far this decade on the Billboard 200 Artists Year-End chart in 2020, 2021 and 2022. She has more chart points, yes, but the same argument can be made for how Drake has outdone her on the Hot 100 so far this decade lol. 

 

Drake has the benefit of having a catalog as strong as Taylor's that will comfortably carry him throughout this decade, even when he doesn't smash with a new album (proven this year when Honestly, Nevermind underperformed compared to his previous albums and he's still projected to be ranked as the #4 on Billboard's Top Artist Year-End chart). 

 

The fact that you were so quick to dismiss Drake as this fad that's now finally over when he's the only one you can say will keep up with Taylor this decade is hilarious. It shows you indeed see him as a threat because unless Post Malone/The Weeknd can replicate the success of their biggest album eras in this decade, they won't keep up with Drake/Taylor. 

 

 

my bad. i really dont mean to come off as dismissive of Drake or being rude towards him. i was making my point to that clownish poster who was saying "Midnights wont let taylor catch up to drake" known that she has already overtaken him with just album points given how much bigger her sales and charting longevity are, and now that Pop-taylor is back, she'd also be consistently serving hot 100 points as well so her lead is gonna be comfortable.

 

i wrote on  page 1  that Drake is the other contender for #1 spot besides the weeknd, and hes got the most longevity of the 3. but the reason i am "dismissive" of him is that after he signed that 200-million dollar deal with UMG, he seems to have lost his drive for music and is content with his performance now. (not seeking long-week #1s, smaller album debuts due to more frequent, lesser quality releases, 300k-450k units instead of reaching 700k like in the past, etc etc. if he keeps this trend up i dont see him closing the gap with taylor, albeit however small it might be at the moment. her albums are giving much more points than his;  she has 6 album in the top 50 vs Drake's 2. theyre both gonna hit the pause and start touring next year; and she's certain to gain more points in that race as well. not to mention she most likely gonna drop a re-recording or two while at it, so unless drake has a project up his sleeves as well, she she be set for the next year. 

 obviously as a female artist, she could very well start flopping in 3-5 year's time while Drake stays at the top for another decade, so who knows.

 

as for the weeknd, i think people are underrating his sustainability. hes the only R&B artist right now, hes vocals and style is so different than most that i could see people always coming back to him. even with his last project flopping AH is still charting like crazy. that's why i put my emphasis on him. i dont see him flopping Post malone style. aint gon believe till i see it. 

 

 

 

 

 

[onewillowsilk]

24 minutes ago, JuanitoKasicki said:

my bad. i really dont mean to come off as dismissive of Drake or being rude towards him. i was making my point to that clownish poster who was saying "Midnights wont let taylor catch up to drake" known that she has already overtaken him with just album points given how much bigger her sales and charting longevity are, and now that Pop-taylor is back, she'd also be consistently serving hot 100 points as well so her lead is gonna be comfortable.

 

i wrote on  page 1  that Drake is the other contender for #1 spot besides the weeknd, and hes got the most longevity of the 3. but the reason i am "dismissive" of him is that after he signed that 200-million dollar deal with UMG, he seems to have lost his drive for music and is content with his performance now. (not seeking long-week #1s, smaller album debuts due to more frequent, lesser quality releases, 300k-450k units instead of reaching 700k like in the past, etc etc. if he keeps this trend up i dont see him closing the gap with taylor, albeit however small it might be at the moment. her albums are giving much more points than his;  she has 6 album in the top 50 vs Drake's 2. theyre both gonna hit the pause and start touring next year; and she's certain to gain more points in that race as well. not to mention she most likely gonna drop a re-recording or two while at it, so unless drake has a project up his sleeves as well, she she be set for the next year. 

 obviously as a female artist, she could very well start flopping in 3-5 year's time while Drake stays at the top for another decade, so who knows.

 

as for the weeknd, i think people are underrating his sustainability. hes the only R&B artist right now, hes vocals and style is so different than most that i could see people always coming back to him. even with his last project flopping AH is still charting like crazy. that's why i put my emphasis on him. i dont see him flopping Post malone style. aint gon believe till i see it. 

 

 

 

 

 

Well, for one, Drake's deal with UMG was for $500M, not $200M. He said that multiple times on his new album and confirmed it again in an Instagram post. 

 

Second, in case you haven't noticed, Drake doesn't care to release singles anymore before dropping albums. He dropped God's Plan and Nice for What before Scorpion dropped and that's why they were able to become huge hits before the full album arrived. He simply doesn't care to move that way anymore. He has reverted back to how he dropped earlier mixtapes (IYRTITL, WATTBA and More Life) which all dropped as complete projects with no singles beforehand. 

 

Taylor goes all-in with having multiple physical variants for her albums and that's why she secures huge debuts. Drake doesn't do any of that. But I don't know how you can see someone who is releasing more music than he's ever done in his career and still say he has lost his drive for music or doesn't care because if someone said that about Taylor, you'd immediately dispute it. 

 

Critics have been talking down on Drake's music for almost a decade now but if his fans and the GP really thought his music was terrible, they wouldn't keep supporting it the way they do and he wouldn't have the great recurrent stats he does. 

 

What I'd say is that him and Taylor have different ways of going about things. Taylor scored her first legit hit in 5 years and went on to drop multiple remixes to hold on to the #1 spot, but Drake would never do something like that because he simply doesn't care to. It doesn't mean he isn't passionate about his music or is lazy. He's just okay with fans supporting his music however they please without doing too much and that's how he has always moved. 

 

As for the Weeknd, here is some context. He released The Highlights — a greatest hits compilation of his biggest songs and that's why it'll end up being his best-performing album (Die for You also went viral this year and added to the success of the album). After Hours keeps charting well because it's his best-selling studio album (thanks to Blinding Lights/Save Your Tears and some other fan favorites). 

 

Both the Weeknd/Drake dropped solo albums that underperformed this year but there's a reason why Drake will still be ranked higher than him in the Top Artists Year-End — his recurrent stats are stronger. 

 

If the Weeknd isn't able to have another massive era this decade, Drake will surpass him in points by next year even without a huge album era and after that, who knows? We'll just have to wait and see. 

[gustavothehuman]

12 hours ago, umich said:

Coldplay making the top 50 on the strength of their tour alone 

And #3 for groups at that 

.

Taylor

[JuanitoKasicki]

2 hours ago, onewillowsilk said:

Taylor goes all-in with having multiple physical variants for her albums and that's why she secures huge debuts. Drake doesn't do any of that.

let's be real here. Taylor is releasing multiple versions to secure that historical 1-million debut in the digital era of the 2020s. Drake on the other hand hadnt bothered to have physical copies created, probably because they werent selling enough to worth the trouble.

 

2 hours ago, onewillowsilk said:

drop multiple remixes to hold on to the #1 spot, but Drake would never do something like that because he simply doesn't care to.

he cared enough to discount both the explicit and clean version of his singles to 69 cents. whats to say he couldnt have released remixes if he had the time to create them? 

 

look, im not taking any digs at drake on my last comment, just outlining my analysis/observation period.  take it how you will but it was not my intention to start any beef here. 

Edited November 26, 2022 by JuanitoKasicki

[slw84]

21 hours ago, onewillowsilk said:

 

Drake projected to rank in the top 5 for the EIGHT CONSECUTIVE YEAR. 

2015: #4

2016: #3

2017: #3

2018: #1

2019: #5

2020: #5

2021: #1

2022: #4 

 

Did your fave(s) make the list? 

 

2014 was a weird year for him.

 

Good for him and the consistency (top 5 at that)

[onewillowsilk]

1 hour ago, slw84 said:

2014 was a weird year for him.

 

Good for him and the consistency (top 5 at that)

 

 

I'm curious to see how much longer he can keep it going. 

[PoisonedIvy]

I hope by decade’s end we’ve got a nice 50/50 split of men and women, I’ve tired of men dominating the decades.

 

Give us Taylor/Olivia/Billie/Doja/Dua alongside Drake/Bad Bunny/The Weeknd/Bieber/Sheeran or something like that 

[slw84]

1 hour ago, onewillowsilk said:

I'm curious to see how much longer he can keep it going. 

For the foreseeable future. If she strategically releases to split certain years then I can see it this entire decade.

[onewillowsilk]

6 hours ago, WeFoundTrouble said:

I hope by decade’s end we’ve got a nice 50/50 split of men and women, I’ve tired of men dominating the decades.

 

Give us Taylor/Olivia/Billie/Doja/Dua alongside Drake/Bad Bunny/The Weeknd/Bieber/Sheeran or something like that 

These were the top 10 artists of the 2010s decade:

1. Drake 

2. Taylor Swift

3. Bruno Mars

4. Rihanna

5. Adele

6. Ed Sheeran

7. Justin Bieber

8. Katy Perry

9. Maroon 5

10. Post Malone

 

5 Men, 4 women and 1 group with 3 women in the top 5. How wasn't that a nice mix? You aren't guaranteed to get an exact 50/50 split because it's based on chart points. If enough female acts are dominant throughout the decade then they'll make the top 10 and if not, then they won't. 

 

 

[PoisonedIvy]

9 minutes ago, onewillowsilk said:

These were the top 10 artists of the 2010s decade:

1. Drake 

2. Taylor Swift

3. Bruno Mars

4. Rihanna

5. Adele

6. Ed Sheeran

7. Justin Bieber

8. Katy Perry

9. Maroon 5

10. Post Malone

 

5 Men, 4 women and 1 group with 3 women in the top 5. How wasn't that a nice mix? You aren't guaranteed to get an exact 50/50 split because it's based on chart points. If enough female acts are dominant throughout the decade then they'll make the top 10 and if not, then they won't. 

 

 

I didn’t know Katy was top 10, I was thinking it was a 7/10 split in favor of the men. 5-4-1 ain’t bad!

[Alex]

Doja with no tour and no album 

[onewillowsilk]

On 11/26/2022 at 6:52 AM, Bonicap said:

Isn't the first week of Her Loss counted this year? The chart goes from November 20, 2021 to November 12, 2022.

Her Loss was released on November 4, 2022 and debuted on the November 19, 2022 chart. 

[onewillowsilk]

7 hours ago, WeFoundTrouble said:

I didn’t know Katy was top 10, I was thinking it was a 7/10 split in favor of the men. 5-4-1 ain’t bad!

Yeah, it was as even between male/female acts as one could have hoped for. 

[WildHeart]

On 11/26/2022 at 3:54 AM, onewillowsilk said:

Midnights is Taylor's first album to have multiple songs chart for several weeks and so far, it looks like the album will only garner one hit record (albeit a smash hit). 

The 1 and Exile from Folklore charted for 4 weeks each. 

 

OT : Looks like another AOTD race with Drake and Taylor, followed by The Weeknd. 

[GreatestLoveofAll]

Adele #9