Beyonnaise Posted July 14, 2022 Posted July 14, 2022 (edited) Clearly no one wants either. Trump is actually probably the worst candidate the GOP could run in the general, but I still don't see DeSantis being able to trounce him in the primary (at least yet). The last time there was a serious third-party challenger (like over 10% of the popular vote) was in 1992 with Ross Perot, who finished with 18%. This allowed Clinton to win, as Perot poached Republicans and independents from HW Bush (an unpopular president). But at least Clinton was a popular, fresh alternative. But with Trump/Biden? I think a lot more people would be willing to seriously vote third-party than ever before, especially if that candidate has an anti-establishment economic message. The reason it's historically been impossible for third-partiers is that the Dem/Repub establishment goes out of their way to block candidates from even appearing on the ballot in many states (which is going on in North Carolina as we speak). But what if it's someone so popular that millions of people would write them in? Because of social media and the hellscape we're currently in, I actually think it's not out of the question. Remember, no one thought someone like Trump could ever become president until he did, I think political conventional wisdom is out the window. Edited July 14, 2022 by Beyonnaise
Brando Posted July 14, 2022 Posted July 14, 2022 Didn't Biden say many times that he was planning to be a one term president? Plus let's just hope he can finish his first term first
Cruel Summer Posted July 14, 2022 Posted July 14, 2022 Just now, Brando said: Didn't Biden say many times that he was planning to be a one term president? Plus let's just hope he can finish his first term first No. He has consistently insisted that he will run in 2024, against all advice, against the wishes of his own voters, and against all conventional wisdom.
Beyonnaise Posted July 14, 2022 Author Posted July 14, 2022 Just now, Brando said: Didn't Biden say many times that he was planning to be a one term president? Plus let's just hope he can finish his first term first No, he says he intends to run again. And if he croaked, Kamala would have even less of a chance nn
byzantium Posted July 14, 2022 Posted July 14, 2022 As long as we have a first post the post voting system, we will always have only two parties. we may always be upset with our options, but unless we seek to change something, we need to accept that we will always have two bad options.
Beyonnaise Posted July 14, 2022 Author Posted July 14, 2022 (edited) Another thing to ponder: In the 2016 primary, the big fear among the GOP establishment was that Trump would split the party's voting bloc by running-third party, which he said he would do if he didn't get the nomination. If it was Hillary (D) vs. Cruz (R) vs. Trump (third-party), Hillary would have won because MAGA cultists and some independents would have voted for Trump over Cruz, so it would have been good for Democrats (like in 1992). But Biden going into 2024 would be considerably less popular than even Hillary was going into 2016. Again, if it's Trump and Biden, a scenario where there's a more attractive non-establishment alternative wouldn't be good news for either party. Edited July 14, 2022 by Beyonnaise
Cruel Summer Posted July 14, 2022 Posted July 14, 2022 I think this depends largely on whether DeSantis runs and is able to beat Trump. I see Trump as the most likely entity to launch a third party bid for the general election. But I think that if it comes down to Trump and Biden again, this is the most likely election in a long time for a third party candidate of any flavor to jump in, because there’s broad dissatisfaction with the entire US political system right now. It seems like it might be the right opportunity for a progressive movement to seize on that dissatisfaction - if only we had any proper infrastructure to do so.
ATRL Moderator khalyan Posted July 14, 2022 ATRL Moderator Posted July 14, 2022 Imagine, DeSantis wins the GOP nomination leaving Trump to immediately branch off, create his Truth Party, and run as well. Then, Biden continues to get nearly nothing done and a more progressive/leftist candidate runs as well. You have a possible situation where four candidates are all running with decent chances. That would be very interesting too, because if no candidate gets 270 then the House will choose between the top 3 candidates.
rihannabiggestfan Posted July 14, 2022 Posted July 14, 2022 (edited) The pretty-much fact that Perot would have won if he didn't drop out due to getting THREATENED we almost had the first third-party (or perhaps Independent) president since George Washington. He later re-entered the race, but clearly dropping out in the first place did irreparable damage to his campaign But since then, I think the anti-Democratic Democrat and Republican parties made it harder for third-party candidates to get on the debate stage (plus all the ballot-blocking BS), so ... it would be very unlikely, sadly Edited July 14, 2022 by rihannabiggestfan
Brando Posted July 14, 2022 Posted July 14, 2022 34 minutes ago, Cruel Summer said: No. He has consistently insisted that he will run in 2024, against all advice, against the wishes of his own voters, and against all conventional wisdom. oh.. good luck then
Bloodflowers. Posted July 14, 2022 Posted July 14, 2022 The American electorial system has been made to avoid third party candidates to shake up and be put in power. You will always have the same two party system that is actually one party system... elites, money, imperialism and power
JennyWayne Posted July 14, 2022 Posted July 14, 2022 Not gonna happen until the Electoral College is abolished. Democrats and Republicans are more divided than ever. Even anti-Trump Republicans will still mostly back the GOP because of social issues like abortion law.
Happylittlepunk Posted July 14, 2022 Posted July 14, 2022 Sadly I don’t have much hope but if there is a chance it would be now. Best case scenario is for trump to run 3rd party for conservative side and a progressive to run 3rd party in the democrat side then you have a total of 4 candidates primary running for president.
Taylena Posted July 14, 2022 Posted July 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Happylittlepunk said: Sadly I don’t have much hope but if there is a chance it would be now. Best case scenario is for trump to run 3rd party for conservative side and a progressive to run 3rd party in the democrat side then you have a total of 4 candidates primary running for president. Then none of the 4 are able to reach 270 EC votes and the Republican House votes for DeSantis to become President.
Happylittlepunk Posted July 14, 2022 Posted July 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, Taylena said: Then none of the 4 are able to reach 270 EC votes and the Republican House votes for DeSantis to become President. That just tells me there is a flaw in our chances picking president. If the gp decides they don’t want Biden or trump then it leaves de Santis and 3rd party progressive. You basically will have a battle of college educated republicans vs working class progressives.
Sergi91 Posted July 15, 2022 Posted July 15, 2022 It will not happen as long as we have the electoral college
ATRL Moderator Bloo Posted July 15, 2022 ATRL Moderator Posted July 15, 2022 8 hours ago, Cruel Summer said: No. He has consistently insisted that he will run in 2024, against all advice, against the wishes of his own voters, and against all conventional wisdom. Not enitrely true. There were several reports in 2019 that Biden told staff he only wanted to serve one term to be a “transitional” president. He predictably changed his tune once he became president, though. https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2019-12-11/joe-biden-suggests-he-would-only-serve-one-term-if-elected-president CC: @Brando — OT: No. It would be good, though, if a third party candidate amassed 5% of the popular vote though so that party could qualify for federal funding. Hopefully it would be the Green Party and not the conservative Libertarian Party.
Cruel Summer Posted July 15, 2022 Posted July 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bloo said: Not enitrely true. There were several reports in 2019 that Biden told staff he only wanted to serve one term to be a “transitional” president. He predictably changed his tune once he became president, though. https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2019-12-11/joe-biden-suggests-he-would-only-serve-one-term-if-elected-president CC: @Brando — OT: No. It would be good, though, if a third party candidate amassed 5% of the popular vote though so that party could qualify for federal funding. Hopefully it would be the Green Party and not the conservative Libertarian Party. That’s fair. I was aware of those reports and neglected to mention them out of a not believing he ever actually meant it, but that did happen and I probably should have mentioned that.
ATRL Moderator Bloo Posted July 15, 2022 ATRL Moderator Posted July 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Cruel Summer said: That’s fair. I was aware of those reports and neglected to mention them out of a not believing he ever actually meant it, but that did happen and I probably should have mentioned that. Understandable. I knew he would flip the moment those reports came out too.
Brando Posted July 15, 2022 Posted July 15, 2022 3 hours ago, Bloo said: Not enitrely true. There were several reports in 2019 that Biden told staff he only wanted to serve one term to be a “transitional” president. He predictably changed his tune once he became president, though. https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2019-12-11/joe-biden-suggests-he-would-only-serve-one-term-if-elected-president CC: @Brando — OT: No. It would be good, though, if a third party candidate amassed 5% of the popular vote though so that party could qualify for federal funding. Hopefully it would be the Green Party and not the conservative Libertarian Party. on which planet does he think he's capable of a second term. he's literally falling apart
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