movie The Little Mermaid (2023) | Makes a BIG streaming splash on Disney+ | 16M views! 🫧🐚

[BNF91]

21 minutes ago, Aristotle said:

Whut? It will be lucky to reach amount in total with Japan.

It's at $141M after a $42.6M 2nd weekend. That's a 38% drop in spite of it completely dying off in China/SK. There's no reason why it can't make another $130M without Japan. That's not even a longshot guess like.. 

Edited June 4, 2023 by BNF91

[Aethereal]

1 minute ago, BNF91 said:

It's at $141M after a $42.6M 2nd weekend. There's no reason why it can't make another $130M without Japan. That's not even a longshot guess like.. 

Are you taking internationally or about US?

Dumbo did $238,518,314 overall internationally WITH Japan and it opened slightly higher than TLM, internationally.  Without Japan, Dumbo would be at $230M internationally OVERALL that is a $45M gap with $275M. I don't think The Little Mermaid will reach $275M without Japan.

 

[BNF91]

31 minutes ago, Aristotle said:

Are you taking internationally or about US?

Dumbo did $238,518,314 overall internationally WITH Japan and it opened slightly higher than TLM, internationally.  Without Japan, Dumbo would be at $230M internationally OVERALL that is a $45M gap with $275M. I don't think The Little Mermaid will reach $275M without Japan.

 

I'm sorry but who cares what Dumbo did? We are talking about completely different release windows (March/April Vs Summer), Dumbo was not nearly as well received as TLM and TLM seems to have had a much stronger hold and also a bigger weekend than Dumbo had in its 2nd weekend. Despite opening higher, Dumbo has already fallen behind TLM OS. Why are you worrying about what Dumbo did? Especially after it got destroyed by a little movie called Avengers Endgame which opened to over $1.2 BILLION.

 

Just extract multipliers using a typical summer run family films. Another $130M off $42M 2nd weekend is... Totally normal. 

Edited June 4, 2023 by BNF91

[kelly-clarkson]

I loved the movie. Halle and the actor who played the prince Eric have a great chemistry 

 

Can't wait to rewatch it on Disney+ 

[Aethereal]

17 minutes ago, BNF91 said:

I'm sorry but who cares what Dumbo did? We are talking about completely different release windows (March/April Vs Summer), Dumbo was not nearly as well received as TLM and TLM seems to have had a much stronger hold and also a bigger weekend than Dumbo had in its 2nd weekend. Despite opening higher, Dumbo has already fallen behind TLM OS. Why are you worrying about what Dumbo did? Especially after it got destroyed by a little movie called Avengers Endgame which opened to over $1.2 BILLION.

 

Just extract multipliers using a typical summer run family films. Another $130M off $42M 2nd weekend is... Totally normal. 

I mean I believe will TLM will outsell Dumbo internationally too but not with a 45M gap (outside of Japan). We will see. 

 

[BNF91]

15 minutes ago, Aristotle said:

I mean I believe will TLM will outsell Dumbo internationally too but not with a 45M gap (outside of Japan). We will see. 

 

Just do the math and you'll see. 30-40% drops with lucrative summer weekdays takes TLM to $273M by mid July and that's without even counting in Japan. 

 

Dumbo got literally annihilated, wiped off the face of the earth in like it's 4th or 5th week by a $1.2 billion opening, the biggest debut of all-time by a mile. 

Edited June 4, 2023 by BNF91

[ToraeGilt]

3 minutes ago, BNF91 said:

Just do the math and you'll see. 30-40% drops with lucrative summer weekdays takes TLM to $273M by mid July and that's without even counting in Japan. 

 

Dumbo got literally annihilated, wiped off the face of the earth in like it's 4th or 5th week by a $1.2 billion opening, the biggest debut of all-time by a mile. 

Realistically, where do you predict the WW box office numbers?

[Robyn.]

I'm really rooting for this movie 

Come through Halle

[Delirious]

It's so funny how many have a hate boner for this movie.

 

Someone edited on Wikipedia and wrote TWICE that it was a box office bomb when it hasn't even finished its box office run yet. So ******* stupid 

 

They wrote grossed '$200m on a budget of $250m making it a box office bomb'

 

Thank god it got changed by some mods and now the article got locked so these brainless stupid cucks can't edit it anymore with their awful takes 

[chosensparkles]

oh wow 320M+ and it's still showing legs so far!

yeah 650M+ seems likely, hope Japan pulls through, when is it premiering there?

 

[Lovett]

4 minutes ago, chosensparkles said:

hope Japan pulls through, when is it premiering there?

June 9.

[chosensparkles]

4 minutes ago, MrLovett said:

June 9.

should we expect a China type of backlash?

[BNF91]

52 minutes ago, ToraeGilt said:

Realistically, where do you predict the WW box office numbers?

$310-340M domestic and $280-320M OS when all is said and done. 

 

$590-660M total. 

[BNF91]

3 minutes ago, chosensparkles said:

should we expect a China type of backlash?

Japan is such a major wildcard with every release. They undoubtedly love the Disney remakes/musicals. It could bomb, perform just fine ($30-40M) or breakout like the other Disney remakes and do even more. 

 

We will just have to wait until release day to see. 

[Aethereal]

48 minutes ago, BNF91 said:

Just do the math and you'll see. 30-40% drops with lucrative summer weekdays takes TLM to $273M by mid July and that's without even counting in Japan. 

 

Dumbo got literally annihilated, wiped off the face of the earth in like it's 4th or 5th week by a $1.2 billion opening, the biggest debut of all-time by a mile. 

In big markets:

 

Only in UK and Italy it is showing a rapid increase in comparison with Dumbo. In Mexico, Spain and France the run is nearly the same in comparison with the first weekend numbers.

It was slightly above Dumbo in France in the opening weekend and it is slightly above it by the second Sunday. 

 

https://twitter.com/BORReport/status/1665387290171162625

For France, in particular:

 

$6,996,466 - Dumbo

$7,400,000 - TLM

 

Opening weekend for Dumbo in France - 3,577,811

 

Opening weekend for TLM in France - 3,705,342

 

170K gap in the opening weekend and now it is 400K gap by the second Sunday.

 

I don't expect it to fly past 300M OS. TBH.

[Aethereal]

1 hour ago, chosensparkles said:

should we expect a China type of backlash?

Not as harsh. There is not a single Disney movie that made more in South Korea than in Japan. South Korea already passed China.

Japan total box office is going to look $10M-20M.

 

Edited June 4, 2023 by Aristotle

[chosensparkles]

1 minute ago, Aristotle said:

Not as harsh. There is not a single Disney movies that made more in South Korea than in Japan. South Korea already passed China.

Japan total box office is going to look $10M-20M.

 

based on what data are you predicting this tho?

[Aethereal]

1 minute ago, chosensparkles said:

based on what data are you predicting this tho?

A hunch. Korea and Japan are very closely related in terms of their response to Disney movies, with some small exceptions like Cinderella.  

 

[BNF91]

1 hour ago, Aristotle said:

In big markets:

 

Only in UK and Italy it is showing a rapid increase in comparison with Dumbo. In Mexico, Spain and France the run is nearly the same in comparison with the first weekend numbers.

It was slightly above Dumbo in France in the opening weekend and it is slightly above it by the second Sunday. 

 

https://twitter.com/BORReport/status/1665387290171162625

For France, in particular:

 

$6,996,466 - Dumbo

$7,400,000 - TLM

 

Opening weekend for Dumbo in France - 3,577,811

 

Opening weekend for TLM in France - 3,705,342

 

170K gap in the opening weekend and now it is 400K gap by the second Sunday.

 

I don't expect it to fly past 300M OS. TBH.

I'm not following your reasoning but you do you I guess.

 

Dumbo had already plummeted to just $6M OS by weekend 5. TLM will still be doing like 3x that by week 5. If you're still curious about where those gains will be made, well there it is. 

 

My projections for OS

Wknd 3- $34M (Japan opening $5-6M, holdovers $28M), total $197M

Wknd 4- $23M, total $235M

Wknd 5- $16M, total $261M

 

After a $16M wknd another $40-50M would be easy for a family film in the summer. Looks pretty straightforward to me. 

 

[Aethereal]

Just now, BNF91 said:

I'm not following your reasoning but you do you I guess.

 

Dumbo had already plummeted to just $6M OS by weekend 5. TLM will still be doing like 3x that by week 5. If you're still curious about where those gains will be made, well there it is. 

 

My projections for OS

Wknd 3- $34M (Japan opening $5-6M, holdovers $28M), total $197M

Wknd 4- $23M, total $235M

Wknd 5- $16M, total $261M

 

After a $16M wknd another $40-50M would be easy for a family film in the summer. Looks pretty straightforward to me. 

 

Isn't being released in Japan in just few days? It is not touching 275M  in just 5 days.

270M-280M total OS with Japan. And 310-330M in US.

 

[BNF91]

3 minutes ago, Aristotle said:

Isn't being released in Japan in just few days? It is not touching 275M  in just 5 days.

270M-280M total OS with Japan. And 310-330M in US.

 

Oh my goodness. I did not say it was getting to $275M OS in 5 days. I said it could eventually get to $275M OS without even counting Japan's numbers yet. 

 

This is getting irritating. 

[Aethereal]

5 hours ago, BNF91 said:

 It can still get to $275M OS before Japan release, which means $300M+ still possible.

 

[BNF91]

20 minutes ago, Aristotle said:

My post that you responded to clearly shows me including the Japan release in week 3. What I meant in that other post is that it can get to $275M without counting the Japan numbers. I actually did not know when Japan was releasing when I posted that other post over 5 hours ago but learned it was next week which is why I then included it in my projections for Week 3. 

 

I should've said "without" instead of "before". Do you want a cookie or something?

 

The numbers are still the same so at this point you're arguing about semantics rather than the actual numbers for which I've provided far more than enough basis for them. 

 

 

 

Edited June 4, 2023 by BNF91

[Aethereal]

10 minutes ago, BNF91 said:

My post that you responded to clearly shows me including the Japan release in week 3. What I meant in that other post is that it can get to $275M without counting the Japan numbers. I actually did not know when Japan was releasing when I posted that other post over 5 hours ago but learned it was next week which is why I then included it in my projections for Week 3. 

 

I should've said "without" instead of "before". Do you want a cookie or something?

 

The numbers are still the same so at this point you're arguing about semantics rather than the actual numbers for which I've provided far more than enough basis for them. 

 

 

 

Cookie? You made a mistake and I corrected you.

 

As for 300M internationally I think you're still a little bit off but it is not impossible so far. 

[BNF91]

31 minutes ago, Aristotle said:

Cookie? You made a mistake and I corrected you.

 

As for 300M internationally I think you're still a little bit off but it is not impossible so far. 

The post from me that you quoted literally has the Japan release included on wk 3 and the running total of $197M very much not even close to $275M.. why would I assume you're referring to anything other than the content in my post with your reply? I already explained the context of the post from 5 hours prior, and then I learned that it was releasing next weekend.