movie The Little Mermaid (2023) | Makes a BIG streaming splash on Disney+ | 16M views! 🫧🐚

[ToraeGilt]

3 minutes ago, BNF91 said:

Just do the math and you'll see. 30-40% drops with lucrative summer weekdays takes TLM to $273M by mid July and that's without even counting in Japan. 

 

Dumbo got literally annihilated, wiped off the face of the earth in like it's 4th or 5th week by a $1.2 billion opening, the biggest debut of all-time by a mile. 

Realistically, where do you predict the WW box office numbers?

[Robyn.]

I'm really rooting for this movie 

Come through Halle

[Delirious]

It's so funny how many have a hate boner for this movie.

 

Someone edited on Wikipedia and wrote TWICE that it was a box office bomb when it hasn't even finished its box office run yet. So ******* stupid 

 

They wrote grossed '$200m on a budget of $250m making it a box office bomb'

 

Thank god it got changed by some mods and now the article got locked so these brainless stupid cucks can't edit it anymore with their awful takes 

[chosensparkles]

oh wow 320M+ and it's still showing legs so far!

yeah 650M+ seems likely, hope Japan pulls through, when is it premiering there?

 

[Lovett]

4 minutes ago, chosensparkles said:

hope Japan pulls through, when is it premiering there?

June 9.

[chosensparkles]

4 minutes ago, MrLovett said:

June 9.

should we expect a China type of backlash?

[BNF91]

52 minutes ago, ToraeGilt said:

Realistically, where do you predict the WW box office numbers?

$310-340M domestic and $280-320M OS when all is said and done. 

 

$590-660M total. 

[BNF91]

3 minutes ago, chosensparkles said:

should we expect a China type of backlash?

Japan is such a major wildcard with every release. They undoubtedly love the Disney remakes/musicals. It could bomb, perform just fine ($30-40M) or breakout like the other Disney remakes and do even more. 

 

We will just have to wait until release day to see. 

[Aethereal]

48 minutes ago, BNF91 said:

Just do the math and you'll see. 30-40% drops with lucrative summer weekdays takes TLM to $273M by mid July and that's without even counting in Japan. 

 

Dumbo got literally annihilated, wiped off the face of the earth in like it's 4th or 5th week by a $1.2 billion opening, the biggest debut of all-time by a mile. 

In big markets:

 

Only in UK and Italy it is showing a rapid increase in comparison with Dumbo. In Mexico, Spain and France the run is nearly the same in comparison with the first weekend numbers.

It was slightly above Dumbo in France in the opening weekend and it is slightly above it by the second Sunday. 

 

https://twitter.com/BORReport/status/1665387290171162625

For France, in particular:

 

$6,996,466 - Dumbo

$7,400,000 - TLM

 

Opening weekend for Dumbo in France - 3,577,811

 

Opening weekend for TLM in France - 3,705,342

 

170K gap in the opening weekend and now it is 400K gap by the second Sunday.

 

I don't expect it to fly past 300M OS. TBH.

[Aethereal]

1 hour ago, chosensparkles said:

should we expect a China type of backlash?

Not as harsh. There is not a single Disney movie that made more in South Korea than in Japan. South Korea already passed China.

Japan total box office is going to look $10M-20M.

 

Edited June 4, 2023 by Aristotle

[chosensparkles]

1 minute ago, Aristotle said:

Not as harsh. There is not a single Disney movies that made more in South Korea than in Japan. South Korea already passed China.

Japan total box office is going to look $10M-20M.

 

based on what data are you predicting this tho?

[Aethereal]

1 minute ago, chosensparkles said:

based on what data are you predicting this tho?

A hunch. Korea and Japan are very closely related in terms of their response to Disney movies, with some small exceptions like Cinderella.  

 

[BNF91]

1 hour ago, Aristotle said:

In big markets:

 

Only in UK and Italy it is showing a rapid increase in comparison with Dumbo. In Mexico, Spain and France the run is nearly the same in comparison with the first weekend numbers.

It was slightly above Dumbo in France in the opening weekend and it is slightly above it by the second Sunday. 

 

https://twitter.com/BORReport/status/1665387290171162625

For France, in particular:

 

$6,996,466 - Dumbo

$7,400,000 - TLM

 

Opening weekend for Dumbo in France - 3,577,811

 

Opening weekend for TLM in France - 3,705,342

 

170K gap in the opening weekend and now it is 400K gap by the second Sunday.

 

I don't expect it to fly past 300M OS. TBH.

I'm not following your reasoning but you do you I guess.

 

Dumbo had already plummeted to just $6M OS by weekend 5. TLM will still be doing like 3x that by week 5. If you're still curious about where those gains will be made, well there it is. 

 

My projections for OS

Wknd 3- $34M (Japan opening $5-6M, holdovers $28M), total $197M

Wknd 4- $23M, total $235M

Wknd 5- $16M, total $261M

 

After a $16M wknd another $40-50M would be easy for a family film in the summer. Looks pretty straightforward to me. 

 

[Aethereal]

Just now, BNF91 said:

I'm not following your reasoning but you do you I guess.

 

Dumbo had already plummeted to just $6M OS by weekend 5. TLM will still be doing like 3x that by week 5. If you're still curious about where those gains will be made, well there it is. 

 

My projections for OS

Wknd 3- $34M (Japan opening $5-6M, holdovers $28M), total $197M

Wknd 4- $23M, total $235M

Wknd 5- $16M, total $261M

 

After a $16M wknd another $40-50M would be easy for a family film in the summer. Looks pretty straightforward to me. 

 

Isn't being released in Japan in just few days? It is not touching 275M  in just 5 days.

270M-280M total OS with Japan. And 310-330M in US.

 

[BNF91]

3 minutes ago, Aristotle said:

Isn't being released in Japan in just few days? It is not touching 275M  in just 5 days.

270M-280M total OS with Japan. And 310-330M in US.

 

Oh my goodness. I did not say it was getting to $275M OS in 5 days. I said it could eventually get to $275M OS without even counting Japan's numbers yet. 

 

This is getting irritating. 

[Aethereal]

5 hours ago, BNF91 said:

 It can still get to $275M OS before Japan release, which means $300M+ still possible.

 

[BNF91]

20 minutes ago, Aristotle said:

My post that you responded to clearly shows me including the Japan release in week 3. What I meant in that other post is that it can get to $275M without counting the Japan numbers. I actually did not know when Japan was releasing when I posted that other post over 5 hours ago but learned it was next week which is why I then included it in my projections for Week 3. 

 

I should've said "without" instead of "before". Do you want a cookie or something?

 

The numbers are still the same so at this point you're arguing about semantics rather than the actual numbers for which I've provided far more than enough basis for them. 

 

 

 

Edited June 4, 2023 by BNF91

[Aethereal]

10 minutes ago, BNF91 said:

My post that you responded to clearly shows me including the Japan release in week 3. What I meant in that other post is that it can get to $275M without counting the Japan numbers. I actually did not know when Japan was releasing when I posted that other post over 5 hours ago but learned it was next week which is why I then included it in my projections for Week 3. 

 

I should've said "without" instead of "before". Do you want a cookie or something?

 

The numbers are still the same so at this point you're arguing about semantics rather than the actual numbers for which I've provided far more than enough basis for them. 

 

 

 

Cookie? You made a mistake and I corrected you.

 

As for 300M internationally I think you're still a little bit off but it is not impossible so far. 

[BNF91]

31 minutes ago, Aristotle said:

Cookie? You made a mistake and I corrected you.

 

As for 300M internationally I think you're still a little bit off but it is not impossible so far. 

The post from me that you quoted literally has the Japan release included on wk 3 and the running total of $197M very much not even close to $275M.. why would I assume you're referring to anything other than the content in my post with your reply? I already explained the context of the post from 5 hours prior, and then I learned that it was releasing next weekend. 

[Aethereal]

1 minute ago, BNF91 said:

The post from me that you quoted literally has the Japan release included on wk 3 and the running total of $197M very much not even close to $275M.. why would I assume you're referring to anything other than the content in my post with your reply? I already explained the context of the post from 5 hours prior, and then I learned that it was releasing next weekend. 

No offense but you seem to be a little bit emotionally invested in all this.   OK I was wrong let's move on.

[V$.]

4 hours ago, Delirious said:

It's so funny how many have a hate boner for this movie.

 

Someone edited on Wikipedia and wrote TWICE that it was a box office bomb when it hasn't even finished its box office run yet. So ******* stupid 

 

They wrote grossed '$200m on a budget of $250m making it a box office bomb'

 

Thank god it got changed by some mods and now the article got locked so these brainless stupid cucks can't edit it anymore with their awful takes 

Crazy! 

[Pink Ranger]

It’s so sad that this movie will probably end up not breaking even when all is said and done because it’s my favourite live action remake to date, it was such a beautiful film.

 

Racism won sadly, the hate complain for this film truly ruined its chances at being a billion dollar film, I hate that stupid incels wrote the film off before even watching it based on the lead actress being black, it makes my blood BOIL

 

[V$.]

https://twitter.com/cxhnow/status/1665452172148867072?t=68-6V-45z_5hqVXujlq5rw&s=19

 

[Aethereal]

2 hours ago, Pink Ranger said:

It’s so sad that this movie will probably end up not breaking even when all is said and done because it’s my favourite live action remake to date, it was such a beautiful film.

 

Racism won sadly, the hate complain for this film truly ruined its chances at being a billion dollar film, I hate that stupid incels wrote the film off before even watching it based on the lead actress being black, it makes my blood BOIL

 

With a +600M WW  box office and bit more progressive ancillary figures a break-even point is  a shoe-in and might turn a small profit.

Home entertainment, streaming, pay-for-TV and international TV will bring a profit of 70M-100M. (Disney also has additional costs like video costs which usually cost around 50M dollars and those are included on the profit number)

Disney is not dumb to drop so much money on their movies and be completely depended on Box Office. 

 

However it is still an underperformance since nearly all Disney remakes broke even from the Box Office alone. 

[Delirious]

3 hours ago, Pink Ranger said:

It’s so sad that this movie will probably end up not breaking even when all is said and done because it’s my favourite live action remake to date, it was such a beautiful film.

 

Racism won sadly, the hate complain for this film truly ruined its chances at being a billion dollar film, I hate that stupid incels wrote the film off before even watching it based on the lead actress being black, it makes my blood BOIL

 

The incels wouldn't be watching it either way so....💀