charts discussion Could All I Want For Xmas become song of the 2020s decade?

[DemDam92]

Discuss.

 

In my opinion it’s quite possible that All I Want For Xmas from Queen of Xmas will actually become the song of the 2020s.

 

If yes, it would be her 3rd song of the decade.

[StrangerInTheDark]

I am sure Billboard will change rules soon. They might let it happen for one more year so Brenda Lee can get it next year and that's it...

[cuneytb]

3 minutes ago, StrangerInTheDark said:

I am sure Billboard will change rules soon. They might let it happen for one more year so Brenda Lee can get it next year and that's it...

Yeah they aren’t going to change some rules because they want brenda to have her #1 song so logical

[Marco_g2]

6 minutes ago, StrangerInTheDark said:

I am sure Billboard will change rules soon. They might let it happen for one more year so Brenda Lee can get it next year and that's it...

To what? The amount of streams and airplay christmas songs get is insane. They couldn't even make a H100 if they tried to without the classics.

Edited December 29, 2020 by Marco_g2

[allforyou]

If it continues to be as popular as it is right now then yes

[Holiest Dreams]

I doubt it, but it’ll definitely place in the top 10

[GoodGuyGoneGhetto]

48 minutes ago, DemDam92 said:

Discuss.

 

In my opinion it’s quite possible that All I Want For Xmas from Queen of Xmas will actually become the song of the 2020s.

 

If yes, it would be her 3rd song of the decade.

No.

 

BB will undoubtedly change the rules for Xmas songs and that will hurt its performance.

 

Also, there’s no saying that it’ll peak at number one EVERY November/December. There could easily be a general song that is a hit throughout the winter period and is able maintain its position at number one blocking any Xmas song (ala. a “Hello, We Found Love, Firework” type hit), much like we’ve seen many times in the past and prior to the streaming era. 
 

It could place in the top ten/twenty overall but that’s as far as it may go in my opinion. 
 

It will take an immense amount of points for a song to have a decade-end top ten entry, and where songs are staying 30-50 weeks in the top ten now the competition is even stronger. 

[stevyy]

1 hour ago, GoodGuyGoneGhetto said:

No.

 

BB will undoubtedly change the rules for Xmas songs and that will hurt its performance.

 

Also, there’s no saying that it’ll peak at number one EVERY November/December. There could easily be a general song that is a hit throughout the winter period and is able maintain its position at number one blocking any Xmas song (ala. a “Hello, We Found Love, Firework” type hit), much like we’ve seen many times in the past and prior to the streaming era. 
 

It could place in the top ten/twenty overall but that’s as far as it may go in my opinion. 
 

It will take an immense amount of points for a song to have a decade-end top ten entry, and where songs are staying 30-50 weeks in the top ten now the competition is even stronger. 

Hot 100 chartrun:

(2000): 83 - (2012): 29 - 25 - 21 - (2013): 26 - 27 - 26 - (2014): 50 - 40 - 35 - (2015): 26 - 22 - 18 - 11 - (2016): 23 - 17 - 20 - 16 - 35 - (2017): 21 - 11 - 9 - 9 - 13 - (2018): 29 - 14 - 7 - 6 - 7 - 3 - (2019): 39 - 31 - 18 - 3 - 1 - 1 - (2020): 1 - 29 - 24 - 2 - 1 - 2 -  (2021): 1 

 

5 weeks in the top 2 already for this decade. And it is expected to chart in the top 10 / 15 next week also.

7 weeks in the top 30 already for this decade. Next year, the song will have spent 10 weeks in the top 10...(in this decade).

[Brando]

46 minutes ago, stevyy said:

Hot 100 chartrun:

(2000): 83 - (2012): 29 - 25 - 21 - (2013): 26 - 27 - 26 - (2014): 50 - 40 - 35 - (2015): 26 - 22 - 18 - 11 - (2016): 23 - 17 - 20 - 16 - 35 - (2017): 21 - 11 - 9 - 9 - 13 - (2018): 29 - 14 - 7 - 6 - 7 - 3 - (2019): 39 - 31 - 18 - 3 - 1 - 1 - (2020): 1 - 29 - 24 - 2 - 1 - 2 -  (2021): 1 

 

5 weeks in the top 2 already for this decade. And it is expected to chart in the top 10 / 15 next week also.

7 weeks in the top 30 already for this decade. Next year, the song will have spent 10 weeks in the top 10...(in this decade).

The 2019 charted weeks will count towards this decade because of BB's tracking period. So:

5 weeks at #1

8 weeks in Top 3

13 weeks in the Top 40

 

If it charted similarly for the next 8 qualifying years we'd have:

~30 weeks at #1

~40 weeks in Top 3

~65 weeks in Top 40

 

Obviously unlikely, but if the trend did indeed continue, she'd probably have the song of the decade

[hector.adriel]

If the trend continues she’s 100% getting SOTD.

[stevyy]

1 hour ago, Brando said:

The 2019 charted weeks will count towards this decade because of BB's tracking period. So:

5 weeks at #1

8 weeks in Top 3

13 weeks in the Top 40

 

If it charted similarly for the next 8 qualifying years we'd have:

~30 weeks at #1

~40 weeks in Top 3

~65 weeks in Top 40

 

Obviously unlikely, but if the trend did indeed continue, she'd probably have the song of the decade

amazing. It's already one of the biggest songs of the decade (2020-2021). Imagine it getting anywhere close to 30 weeks at #1... heck even 10 weeks would be unimaginable.

[Brando]

3 hours ago, GoodGuyGoneGhetto said:

There could easily be a general song that is a hit throughout the winter period and is able maintain its position at number one blocking any Xmas song (ala. a “Hello, We Found Love, Firework” type hit), much like we’ve seen many times in the past and prior to the streaming era.

There weren't any xmas songs charting back then. It's a recent trend fuelled by streaming. If anything their chart points will keep increasing as they keep breaking streaming records. Mood, which was the IT hit of this winter was pushed all the way down to #8 this week. Regular hits can't seem to compete anymore. 

 

3 hours ago, GoodGuyGoneGhetto said:

It will take an immense amount of points for a song to have a decade-end top ten entry, and where songs are staying 30-50 weeks in the top ten now the competition is even stronger. 

If the trend was to continue, Mariah would spend that many weeks in the Top 3 alone. But obviously no one knows what's gonna happen in the next 8 years

[cuneytb]

1 hour ago, Brando said:

The 2019 charted weeks will count towards this decade because of BB's tracking period. So:

5 weeks at #1

8 weeks in Top 3

13 weeks in the Top 40

 

If it charted similarly for the next 8 qualifying years we'd have:

~30 weeks at #1

~40 weeks in Top 3

~65 weeks in Top 40

 

Obviously unlikely, but if the trend did indeed continue, she'd probably have the song of the decade

Omg. By 2030 this song will be around 2 diamond certifications by then  

[gotportugal]

4 hours ago, GoodGuyGoneGhetto said:

 

It will take an immense amount of points for a song to have a decade-end top ten entry, and where songs are staying 30-50 weeks in the top ten now the competition is even stronger. 

Basically this. Circles and BL show us that is getting much easier for hits to rack up 40+ weeks on the top10... 

[stevyy]

2 hours ago, cuneytb said:

Omg. By 2030 this song will be around 2 diamond certifications by then  

make it 3xD... the song has shifted a good 1,4 million units in the US this season... (with still another week missing)... could reach 1,5 million

 

2020 season - 1,5 million

2021 season - 2,0 million

2022 season - 2,0 million

2023 season - 2,5 million

2024 season - 2,5 million

2025 season - 2,5 million

2026 season - 3,0 million

2027 season - 3,0 million

2028 season - 3,0 million

2029 season - 3,0 million

= 25 million units in the usa alone.

 

[cuneytb]

31 minutes ago, stevyy said:

make it 3xD... the song has shifted a good 1,4 million units in the US this season... (with still another week missing)... could reach 1,5 million

 

2020 season - 1,5 million

2021 season - 2,0 million

2022 season - 2,0 million

2023 season - 2,5 million

2024 season - 2,5 million

2025 season - 2,5 million

2026 season - 3,0 million

2027 season - 3,0 million

2028 season - 3,0 million

2029 season - 3,0 million

= 25 million units in the usa alone.

 

Omg  

[stevyy]

25 minutes ago, cuneytb said:

Omg  

Just imagine that when she obtained her first 4 #1's... she didn't sell 3 million units in the USA... but ... nowadays... due to streaming and in the digital era too... songs have exploded and outsell albums... 5:1 ...

 

That is why all those Pop girls have amassed tens of millions in record sales... all you need these days is 1-2 hit songs in the streaming era and you're at almost 40 million records sold... lol. 

 

But unlike today, in the past Mariah and everyone involved was making real money. She is estimated to have earned $40 million from the Daydream era alone... and SONY is estimated to have grossed $1,5 bn in Mariah's record sales. 

 

That is why Virgin made excited about their deal with her in 2001... because what even are $100 million (spread out over 5 albums) when your estimated market value was at around $1 billion. 

[cuneytb]

27 minutes ago, stevyy said:

Just imagine that when she obtained her first 4 #1's... she didn't sell 3 million units in the USA... but ... nowadays... due to streaming and in the digital era too... songs have exploded and outsell albums... 5:1 ...

 

That is why all those Pop girls have amassed tens of millions in record sales... all you need these days is 1-2 hit songs in the streaming era and you're at almost 40 million records sold... lol. 

 

But unlike today, in the past Mariah and everyone involved was making real money. She is estimated to have earned $40 million from the Daydream era alone... and SONY is estimated to have grossed $1,5 bn in Mariah's record sales. 

 

That is why Virgin made excited about their deal with her in 2001... because what even are $100 million (spread out over 5 albums) when your estimated market value was at around $1 billion. 

Yeah. Record sales needs to be discussed more by the music industry because an legendary era like Daydream shouldn’t be compared to any era from this decade. 

[Dingdong123]

It is possible, and I won’t say it isn’t deserving. I mean 17.2 million streams in a single day?! That’s absurd

[EnoughSaid]

14 hours ago, StrangerInTheDark said:

I am sure Billboard will change rules soon. They might let it happen for one more year so Brenda Lee can get it next year and that's it...

I don't think so for now. Look at the way the entire world does charts, they include older songs if they receive enough points. And since Christmas songs are rising in popularity I don't think Billboard will take that out anytime soon. The recurring top 50 rule works, they may decide to make it a higher criteria though

[tanooki]

eh, probably not (i need to start updating my thread again, oops)

 

 

1

The Weeknd - Blinding Lights

1,407,124

24

Mariah Carey - All I Want For Christmas Is You

373,125

[naval23]

8 hours ago, tanooki said:

eh, probably not (i need to start updating my thread again, oops)

 

 

1

The Weeknd - Blinding Lights

1,407,124

24

Mariah Carey - All I Want For Christmas Is You

373,125

All I Want for XMas is going to chart every year though, and streaming is getting bigger and bigger each year.

 

Even if it racks up 4 weeks per year in the top 10, that's 40 weeks in the top 10 by the next decade chart and it already has 5 weeks at #1.

 

Maybe Billboard will reduce the weight of Christmas songs to prevent XMas songs from cannibalizing the decade chart. 

[naval23]

Mariah is really going to snatch her most weeks at #1 record again from Old Town Road.