JustRelax Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, simmnfierzig said: Full early predictions 1 Shape Of You 520 (=) 2 Bad And Boujee 451 (=) 3 I Don't Wanna Live Forever 406 (=) 4 Bad Things 289 (=) 5 Closer 260 (=) 6 Bounce Back 259 (+9) 7 Scars To Your Beautiful 247 (+3) 8 Million Reasons 244 (re-entry) *used 150k sales* 9 Paris 240 (+2) 10 Starboy 237 (-3) 11 Fake Love 235 (-3) 12 Don't Wanna Know 233 (-6) 13 Love On The Brain 227 (+1) 14 Black Beatles 218 (-5) 15 Side To Side 216 (-2) 16 I Feel It Coming 205 (=) 17 24k Magic 204 (-5) 18 Caroline 196 (-1) 19 No Favors 173 (debut) 20 Let Me Love You 171 (-2) Positions 21-100 Hide contents 21 Mercy 165 (=) 22 All Time Low 160 (-2) 23 Rockabye 158 (+1) 24 Body Like A Back Road 155 (+14) 25 T-Shirt 155 (-4) 26 Say You Won't Let Go 148 (+3) 27 Can't Stop The Feeling 146 (-5) 28 iSpy 141 (-1) 29 Water Under The Bridge 138 (-1) 30 Heathens 136 (-7) 31 Treat You Better 126 (+1) 32 This Town 126 (-7) 33 Moves 125 (+41) 34 Cheap Thrills 125 (-4) 35 Broccoli 123 (-4) 36 Starving 121 (-10) 37 Down 121 (=) 38 Don't Let Me Down 118 (-2) 39 That's What I Like 114 (+18) 40 Better Man 113 (-6) 41 Love Me Now 110 (-6) 42 Make Me (Cry) 104 (+4) 43 Juju On That Beat 101 (-10) 44 Party 99 (=) 45 Congratulations 96 (-6) 46 Believer 95 (debut) 47 Issues 95 (+17) 48 Both 95 (+3) 49 The Greatest 93 (-9) 50 X 92 (-1) 51 Location 92 (+9) 52 Deja Vu 90 (-5) 53 I Got You 89 (+6) 54 Seein Red 87 (+2) 55 Star Of The Show 87 (-10) 56 Dirt On My Boots 87 (-13) 57 Castle On The Hill 84 (-7) 58 Goosebumps 84 (+9) 59 Way Down We Go 84 (+4) 60 HandClap 83 (-7) 61 Used To This 83 (-7) 62 Sacrifices 83 (debut) 63 Party Monster 80 (-8) 64 Halfway Off The Balcony 79 (debut) 65 A Guy With A Girl 75 (-13) 66 Jump Out The Window 74 (debut) 67 Play That Song 74 (-26) 68 Chantaje 74 (-3) 69 Sober Saturday Night 70 (+1) 70 Despacito 69 (-9) 71 Swang 69 (+5) 72 Think A Little Less 66 (-4) 73 Owe Me 66 (debut) 74 Selfish 64 (+4) 75 Light 64 (debut) 76 No Heart 62 (-3) 77 How Far I'll Go Alessia 62 (=) 78 Call On Me 61 (+4) 79 Fast 61 (+7) 80 The Weekend 60 (-11) 81 Guys My Age 59 (+6) 82 Not Nice 59 (+1) 83 Today 59 (-2) 84 Voices In My Head 59 (debut) 85 Kill A Word 57 (-5) 86 OTW 55 (+6) 87 Wanna Be That Song 53 (-2) 88 80s Mercedes 53 (+3) 89 If The Boot Fits 53 (-5) 90 Road Less Traveled 53 (-10) 91 How Far I'll Go Auli'l 52 (-16) 92 Any Ol Barstool 51 (+4) 93 El Amante 51 (+6) 94 Bigger Than Me 50 (debut) 95 Dirty Laundry 50 (-5) 96 Slippery 50 (-48) 97 Same Time Pt.1 49 (debut) 98 Redbone 47 (-4) 99 Now And Later 46 (re-entry) 100 Sunday Morning Jetpack 46 (debut) Others Run Up 45 Yeah Boy 44 Scared To Be Lonely 43 Sex With Me 41 Say It 40 R.I.P #CSTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClashAndBurn Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 (edited) I think MR will end up short of top 10, cause its streaming on Spotify is kinda abysmal. Sales will also be falling off towards the end of the tracking week too, so yeah. Edited February 7, 2017 by ClashAndBurn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simmnfierzig Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 (edited) 15 minutes ago, ClashAndBurn said: I think MR will end up short of top 10, cause its streaming on Spotify is kinda abysmal. Sales will also be falling off towards the end of the tracking week too, so yeah. I put the sales estimate 30k lower than what kworb has And #25 on Spotify today is not bad at all. Think the 5 million overall streaming I estimated is fairly conservative too. Top 10 seems very certain tbh. Edited February 7, 2017 by simmnfierzig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NumbSoul Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 hour ago, simmnfierzig said: Full early predictions Don't have a good feel yet for how high sales are weighted in the new formula. So I was underestimating Million Reasons a bit. 1 Shape Of You 520 (=) 2 Bad And Boujee 451 (=) 3 I Don't Wanna Live Forever 406 (=) 4 Bad Things 289 (=) 5 Closer 260 (=) 6 Bounce Back 259 (+9) 7 Scars To Your Beautiful 247 (+3) 8 Million Reasons 244 (re-entry) *used 150k sales* 9 Paris 240 (+2) 10 Starboy 237 (-3) 11 Fake Love 235 (-3) 12 Don't Wanna Know 233 (-6) 13 Love On The Brain 227 (+1) 14 Black Beatles 218 (-5) 15 Side To Side 216 (-2) 16 I Feel It Coming 205 (=) 17 24k Magic 204 (-5) 18 Caroline 196 (-1) 19 No Favors 173 (debut) 20 Let Me Love You 171 (-2) Positions 21-100 Reveal hidden contents 21 Mercy 165 (=) 22 All Time Low 160 (-2) 23 Rockabye 158 (+1) 24 Body Like A Back Road 155 (+14) 25 T-Shirt 155 (-4) 26 Say You Won't Let Go 148 (+3) 27 Can't Stop The Feeling 146 (-5) 28 iSpy 141 (-1) 29 Water Under The Bridge 138 (-1) 30 Heathens 136 (-7) 31 Treat You Better 126 (+1) 32 This Town 126 (-7) 33 Moves 125 (+41) 34 Cheap Thrills 125 (-4) 35 Broccoli 123 (-4) 36 Starving 121 (-10) 37 Down 121 (=) 38 Don't Let Me Down 118 (-2) 39 That's What I Like 114 (+18) 40 Better Man 113 (-6) 41 Love Me Now 110 (-6) 42 Make Me (Cry) 104 (+4) 43 Juju On That Beat 101 (-10) 44 Party 99 (=) 45 Congratulations 96 (-6) 46 Believer 95 (debut) 47 Issues 95 (+17) 48 Both 95 (+3) 49 The Greatest 93 (-9) 50 X 92 (-1) 51 Location 92 (+9) 52 Deja Vu 90 (-5) 53 I Got You 89 (+6) 54 Seein Red 87 (+2) 55 Star Of The Show 87 (-10) 56 Dirt On My Boots 87 (-13) 57 Castle On The Hill 84 (-7) 58 Goosebumps 84 (+9) 59 Way Down We Go 84 (+4) 60 HandClap 83 (-7) 61 Used To This 83 (-7) 62 Sacrifices 83 (debut) 63 Party Monster 80 (-8) 64 Halfway Off The Balcony 79 (debut) 65 A Guy With A Girl 75 (-13) 66 Jump Out The Window 74 (debut) 67 Play That Song 74 (-26) 68 Chantaje 74 (-3) 69 Sober Saturday Night 70 (+1) 70 Despacito 69 (-9) 71 Swang 69 (+5) 72 Think A Little Less 66 (-4) 73 Owe Me 66 (debut) 74 Selfish 64 (+4) 75 Light 64 (debut) 76 No Heart 62 (-3) 77 How Far I'll Go Alessia 62 (=) 78 Call On Me 61 (+4) 79 Fast 61 (+7) 80 The Weekend 60 (-11) 81 Guys My Age 59 (+6) 82 Not Nice 59 (+1) 83 Today 59 (-2) 84 Voices In My Head 59 (debut) 85 Kill A Word 57 (-5) 86 OTW 55 (+6) 87 Wanna Be That Song 53 (-2) 88 80s Mercedes 53 (+3) 89 If The Boot Fits 53 (-5) 90 Road Less Traveled 53 (-10) 91 How Far I'll Go Auli'l 52 (-16) 92 Any Ol Barstool 51 (+4) 93 El Amante 51 (+6) 94 Bigger Than Me 50 (debut) 95 Dirty Laundry 50 (-5) 96 Slippery 50 (-48) 97 Same Time Pt.1 49 (debut) 98 Redbone 47 (-4) 99 Now And Later 46 (re-entry) 100 Sunday Morning Jetpack 46 (debut) Others Run Up 45 Yeah Boy 44 Scared To Be Lonely 43 Sex With Me 41 Say It 40 Wow at Million Reasons Hopefully you're right about LOTB! Hopefully it can rise higher next week, but Katy is releasing and Grammy effect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliClass24 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Bounce Back potentially tying Sean's highest peak Shame he couldn't do it with a non-boring song Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
black Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 6 hours ago, simmnfierzig said: 4 Bad Things 289 (=) 3rd week on peak, good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iHype. Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 5 hours ago, simmnfierzig said: I put the sales estimate 30k lower than what kworb has And #25 on Spotify today is not bad at all. Think the 5 million overall streaming I estimated is fairly conservative too. Top 10 seems very certain tbh. 1 So if it did end up reaching Kworb's estimated sales (I still think it's unlikely) it'd possibly go Top 5? Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
black Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Bad Things has negative updates on radio, low streams and low sales this week and still holds on top5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heart.me Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 13 Love On The Brain 227 (+1) I want a new peak so bad, c'mon Rih Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starkboy Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 I can see MR going #4-#6 Bad Things has negative updates on radio, low streams and low sales this week and still holds on top5? The top3 are the only big hits atm. In fact points #4-15 are pretty close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bad Wolf Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Really hoping for "Million Reasons" to go Top 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
legendaya_SSLP Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 (edited) 33 minutes ago, iHype. said: So if it did end up reaching Kworb's estimated sales (I still think it's unlikely) it'd possibly go Top 5? Wow. Yea i think it can be as high as #5 with 180k sales, 10 million airplay, and 5 million streams (which would knock Closer out of the top 5 finally too :P) also hopefully Scars To Your Beautiful can get a new peak this week!! Edited February 7, 2017 by legendaya_SSLP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATRL Moderator Azulito Posted February 7, 2017 ATRL Moderator Share Posted February 7, 2017 Million Reasons could've had a shot at #1 with radio support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Letters From Adi Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 hope MR goes #4. Closer needs to leave asap. It's been like 7 months already! LOTB needs to go Top 10 please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARTPØP Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Early Predictions. (01) Shape of You || iTunes: #2 || Radio: #1 || Spotify: #1 || YouTube: #2 || Pandora: #8 (=) (02) Bad and Boujee || iTunes: #12* || Radio: #15 || Spotify: #2 || YouTube: #1 || Pandora: #3 (=) (03) I Don't Wanna Live Forever || iTunes: #3 || Radio: #5 || Spotify: #4 || YouTube: #6 || Pandora: #7 (=) (04) Bad Things || iTunes: #10* || Radio: #4 || Spotify: #12 || YouTube: #13 || Pandora: #12 (=) (05) Closer || iTunes: #26* || Radio: #8 || Spotify: #16 || YouTube: #5 || Pandora: N/A (=) (06) Bounce Back || iTunes: #21* || Radio: #25 || Spotify: #3 || YouTube: N/A || Pandora: #10 (+9) (07) Million Reasons || iTunes: #1 || Radio: #139 || Spotify: #25 || YouTube: N/A || Pandora: #48 (RE-ENTRY) (08) Paris || iTunes: #6* || Radio: #18 || Spotify: #5 || YouTube: N/A || Pandora: #13 (+3) (09) Scars To Your Beautiful || iTunes: #20* || Radio: #3 || Spotify: #96 || YouTube: N/A || Pandora: #4 (+1) (10) Fake Love || iTunes: #31* || Radio: #7 || Spotify: #6 || YouTube: N/A || Pandora: #1 (-2) (11) Starboy || iTunes: #37* || Radio: #12 || Spotify: #11 || YouTube: #9 || Pandora: N/A (-4) (12) Don't Wanna Know || iTunes: #39* || Radio: #2 || Spotify: #30 || YouTube: N/A || Pandora: #5 (-6) (13) Love On The Brain || iTunes: #25* || Radio: #6 || Spotify: #70 || YouTube: N/A || Pandora: #6 (+1) (14) Black Beatles || iTunes: #52* || Radio: #16 || Spotify: #18 || YouTube: #4 || Pandora: #2 (-5) (15) I Feel It Coming || iTunes: #13* || Radio: #10 || Spotify: #13 || YouTube: N/A || Pandora: #20 (+1) (16) Side To Side || iTunes: #57* || Radio: #9 || Spotify: #56 || YouTube: #7 || Pandora: N/A (-3) (17) 24K Magic || iTunes: #14* || Radio: #13 || Spotify: #43 || YouTube: #12 || Pandora: #15 (-5) (18) Caroline || iTunes: #23* || Radio: #30 || Spotify: #14 || YouTube: #11 || Pandora: N/A (-1) (19) Mercy || iTunes: #9* || Radio: #17 || Spotify: #81 || YouTube: N/A || Pandora: #14 (+2) (20) Let Me Love You || iTunes: #48* || Radio: #11 || Spotify: #74 || YouTube: N/A || Pandora: N/A (-1) "Shape of You" and "I Don't Wanna Live Forever" are truly well-balanced hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heart.me Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 I Don't by Mariah has no chance to crack the top 100? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Adele Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 (edited) Congrats to Gaga for the inevitable new Million Reasons peak, shame it will block Alessia from peaking at 8... Can someone do a prediciton for Water Under the Bridge? Edited February 7, 2017 by Mr. Adele Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwek_kwek Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 (edited) Is MR has a shot at number one if it has let's say 50m radio audience with 180k and 5m streams or how ,any radio audience does she need to get the number one? Edited February 7, 2017 by kwek_kwek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capruni Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 7 hours ago, simmnfierzig said: Full early predictions Don't have a good feel yet for how high sales are weighted in the new formula. So I was underestimating Million Reasons a bit. 1 Shape Of You 520 (=) 2 Bad And Boujee 451 (=) 3 I Don't Wanna Live Forever 406 (=) 4 Bad Things 289 (=) 5 Closer 260 (=) 6 Bounce Back 259 (+9) 7 Scars To Your Beautiful 247 (+3) 8 Million Reasons 244 (re-entry) *used 150k sales* 9 Paris 240 (+2) 10 Starboy 237 (-3) 11 Fake Love 235 (-3) 12 Don't Wanna Know 233 (-6) 13 Love On The Brain 227 (+1) 14 Black Beatles 218 (-5) 15 Side To Side 216 (-2) 16 I Feel It Coming 205 (=) 17 24k Magic 204 (-5) 18 Caroline 196 (-1) 19 No Favors 173 (debut) 20 Let Me Love You 171 (-2) Positions 21-100 Reveal hidden contents 21 Mercy 165 (=) 22 All Time Low 160 (-2) 23 Rockabye 158 (+1) 24 Body Like A Back Road 155 (+14) 25 T-Shirt 155 (-4) 26 Say You Won't Let Go 148 (+3) 27 Can't Stop The Feeling 146 (-5) 28 iSpy 141 (-1) 29 Water Under The Bridge 138 (-1) 30 Heathens 136 (-7) 31 Treat You Better 126 (+1) 32 This Town 126 (-7) 33 Moves 125 (+41) 34 Cheap Thrills 125 (-4) 35 Broccoli 123 (-4) 36 Starving 121 (-10) 37 Down 121 (=) 38 Don't Let Me Down 118 (-2) 39 That's What I Like 114 (+18) 40 Better Man 113 (-6) 41 Love Me Now 110 (-6) 42 Make Me (Cry) 104 (+4) 43 Juju On That Beat 101 (-10) 44 Party 99 (=) 45 Congratulations 96 (-6) 46 Believer 95 (debut) 47 Issues 95 (+17) 48 Both 95 (+3) 49 The Greatest 93 (-9) 50 X 92 (-1) 51 Location 92 (+9) 52 Deja Vu 90 (-5) 53 I Got You 89 (+6) 54 Seein Red 87 (+2) 55 Star Of The Show 87 (-10) 56 Dirt On My Boots 87 (-13) 57 Castle On The Hill 84 (-7) 58 Goosebumps 84 (+9) 59 Way Down We Go 84 (+4) 60 HandClap 83 (-7) 61 Used To This 83 (-7) 62 Sacrifices 83 (debut) 63 Party Monster 80 (-8) 64 Halfway Off The Balcony 79 (debut) 65 A Guy With A Girl 75 (-13) 66 Jump Out The Window 74 (debut) 67 Play That Song 74 (-26) 68 Chantaje 74 (-3) 69 Sober Saturday Night 70 (+1) 70 Despacito 69 (-9) 71 Swang 69 (+5) 72 Think A Little Less 66 (-4) 73 Owe Me 66 (debut) 74 Selfish 64 (+4) 75 Light 64 (debut) 76 No Heart 62 (-3) 77 How Far I'll Go Alessia 62 (=) 78 Call On Me 61 (+4) 79 Fast 61 (+7) 80 The Weekend 60 (-11) 81 Guys My Age 59 (+6) 82 Not Nice 59 (+1) 83 Today 59 (-2) 84 Voices In My Head 59 (debut) 85 Kill A Word 57 (-5) 86 OTW 55 (+6) 87 Wanna Be That Song 53 (-2) 88 80s Mercedes 53 (+3) 89 If The Boot Fits 53 (-5) 90 Road Less Traveled 53 (-10) 91 How Far I'll Go Auli'l 52 (-16) 92 Any Ol Barstool 51 (+4) 93 El Amante 51 (+6) 94 Bigger Than Me 50 (debut) 95 Dirty Laundry 50 (-5) 96 Slippery 50 (-48) 97 Same Time Pt.1 49 (debut) 98 Redbone 47 (-4) 99 Now And Later 46 (re-entry) 100 Sunday Morning Jetpack 46 (debut) Others Run Up 45 Yeah Boy 44 Scared To Be Lonely 43 Sex With Me 41 Say It 40 Hope Gaga snatches into the top 10 ?? Please Rih a video release could snatch Love On The Brain on top 10 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simmnfierzig Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, kwek_kwek said: Is MR has a shot at number one if it has let's say 50m radio audience with 180k and 5m streams or how ,any radio audience does she need to get the number one? This week? If have it at not even half the point off #1 There isn't enough radio in the world to close that gap. Would need to sell more and stream a lot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNNAMI Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 (edited) please delete Edited February 7, 2017 by UNNAMI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simmnfierzig Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 20 minutes ago, Heart.me said: I Don't by Mariah has no chance to crack the top 100? Oh **** forgot to add that. No it should absolutely make the Hot 100. #80 or something. 19 minutes ago, Mr. Adele said: Congrats to Gaga for the inevitable new Million Reasons peak, shame it will block Alessia from peaking at 8... Can someone do a prediciton for Water Under the Bridge? I did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iHype. Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Million Reasons will be the Piece by Piece of 2017. A viral performance sending the ballad to Top 10 for 1 week, and #1 in Sales with a great volume. It'll fall down the charts within a month like PBP due to no radio/streaming support. Despite the song not being good at all, and being a quick hit I'm still happy for her. It'll be her 14th Top 10, and tie her with Alicia Keys as 9th for females with most weeks Top 10 on Hot 100 (130 weeks). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexanderao Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 YAS @ Bounce Back!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Adele Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, simmnfierzig said: I did? Oh, sorry, I missed your post So thats it for Water Under the Bridge? If Adele does 0 promo the song has no chance to repeak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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